STAT 100 Exam 2 (unit 5 & 6) **still need to add unit 6

Posterior Distribution

A specially type of distribution that specifies how likely different potential values of a parameter are given the sampling strategy, data, & estimate that was collected.

Interval Estimate

The range of numbers from the entire middle 96% of the posterior probability distribution.

Bias

Any systematic manner in which the data that has been collected has fundamental problems that will prevent the statistical methods from producing a correct estimate.

Measurement Bias

Any bias in the data due to problems in the measurement process.

Sample Bias

Any bias in the data due to problems in the representativeness of a sample.

Causal Bias

Any bias in the data due to differences between the controls & the observations in the treatment group.

Estimate’s Precision

How narrow an interval estimate can be created based on the collected data.

• 2 factors affect precision

  • Amount of data that has been collected

  • Standard deviation of the observation

Evidence-Based Testing

A form of statistical testing that begins with evidence in the form of data, uses a likelihood function for a parameter, & subsequently evaluates hypotheses by comparing them to the likelihood function.

Hypothesis-Based Testing

A form of statistical testing that begins with a hypothesis, creates a probability distribution based on that hypothesis & the estimation error, & subsequently evaluates estimates from data by comparing them to the probability distribution.

Null Model

Represents your expectations for what the data will be.

p-value

If the hypothesis is correct, the _________ is the probability of seeing something even further away from what was expected than the observed data.

When a p-value is large…

We say data is consistent with what we expected.

When a p-value is small…

We say the data is not consistent with what we expected.