2019 election

Context: recent elections

• 3rd election in 5 years

• 4th election in 10 years

Reason for election being called

• May had a minority gov’t and then resigned

Focus of L campaign

'For the many not the few’

Focus of C campaign

‘Get Brexit done’

3 C manifesto priorities

1. ‘Levelling up’ aka reducing inequalities

2. Increased public spending

3. One Nation > NR

3 L manifesto priorities

1. Renegotiate Brexit

2. 2nd Brexit referendum

3. Increase in public spending — 4.3% in health; free broadband

Changes in polling across the campaign

• Very little

  • Suggests neither campaign had a considerable impact and instead just reinforced voting patterns

L result

• Worst since 1935

  • Lost 61 seats

3 reasons for bad L result

1. Early election → disorganised campaign

2. Unpopularity of Corbyn

3. Antisemitism controversy

Key issue — Brexit

• Was meant to leave by March 2019 but both May and Johnson asked for extensions that meant 🇬🇧 didn’t leave until January 2020

Key issue — L antisemitism

• Corbyn seen to have improperly handled accusations of antisemitism within L

  • Corbyn then had the lowest net satisfaction ratings of any opposition leader since the late 1970s

Turnout

67.3%

2017→2019 turnout

• Slightly lower

Turnout amongst old people

74%

Turnout amongst young people

47%

C number of seats

365

Regional voting

• Red Wall knocked down!

Fraction of Red Wall seats won by C

33/63

Importance of Blyth Valley seat

• First time it was every C in its 69-year history

Party image

• Really not good for either party

Rational choice

• Brexit meant many L voters → C simply because they were seen as being able to finally Get Brexit Done

Age

• More divisive in 2019

C pt lead amongest elderly voters

47pts

L pt lead amongst youth

43 pts