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Theoretical Probability (LT #14)
the expected value
# of outcomes in event _ / total # of outcomes
Experimental Probability (LT #14)
the actual value
# of trials where _ occured / total # of trials
Intersection (A n B) (LT #14)
when two events occur simultaneously at the same time
P(A n B) = P(A) • P(B | A) or P(B) • P(A | B)
if mutually exclusive (A n B) = 0
Mutually Exclusive (LT #14)
events with NO common outcomes
when P(A n B) = 0
Union (A u B) (LT #14)
P(A) + P(B) — P(A n B)
Conditional Probability P(B | A) (LT #14)
(A | B) = P(A n B) / P(B)
Independent Events (LT #14)
P(A n B) = P(A) • P(B)
OR P(A) = P(A | B)
Both sides of equation must be the same in order to be independent IF NOT events are associated
Fundamental Counting Principle (LT #15)
if there are n amount of items there are m1 ways to organize the first item, m2 ways for the second, etc.
Permutation (LT #15)
order DOES matter
nPr = n! / (n - r)!
n = total # of available items
r = chosen/selected items
Combination (LT #15)
order DOES NOT matter
nCr = n! / (n - r)!r! = (n/r)
n = total # of available items
r = chosen/selected items
Permutation (with Repetition) (LT #15)
n! / r1!…r2!…etc.
n = # of total objects
r = the object repeated
# of permutations of n distinct objects if an object is repeated r1 times, another is repeated r2 times and so on is...
count how many times a letter is repeated (i.e. if e is repeated 3 times in the word repeated) then that number will become a factorial on the bottom (i.e. r)
Specific Outcomes Probability (LT #15)
if a specific variable is included/known (ex. 2 friends will receive invitation) then use
# of outcomes where ___ is included / # of total possible outcomes
should use even on poker hands! (sometimes)
Z-score
z = x-u / o
x = data pont (value)
u = mean of data
o = standard deviation
once z is found look at the table
Experiment
IMPOSING treatments on a group of assigned subjects in order to see different responses to the treatments
Observational Study
Observed information is used to record values of variables for
members of a sample
no interactions
Survey
A type of observational study that gathers data by asking
people a number of questions
Sample Survey
A type of observational study that gathers data by asking
a sample of people to answer a number of questions
Population Proportion
proportion of a group of people
Sample Proportion
proportion of the sample (mean/avg.)
Margin of Error for Population Proportion
1.96 x sqrt p^(1-p^) / n
p^ = sample proportion / total sample
n = total sample
Margin of Error for Population Mean
1.96 x s (SD) / sqrt of n
SD = standard deviation
z-score of 1.96
n = data value (total sample)
Confidence Interval for Population Proportion
p^ ± M (moe)
p^ = population proportion
M = margin of error
Confidence Interval fro Population Mean
x̄ ± M (moe)
x̄ = population mean
M = margin of error