APT 8th Essentials Ed, Chapter 6 Public Opinion and The Media

Public opinion

It is the collection of individual attitudes and beliefs shared by a portion of the adult population about politics and policy.

Importance of public opinion in democracy

It influences politicians' behavior, policy outcomes, and explains how citizens engage with government.

Latent opinions

Opinions formed on the spot, often based on considerations like partisanship or recent events rather than deep knowledge.

Salient opinions

Strong feelings about an issue can prompt political action even if the majority holds a different view with less intensity.

Gender gap in political opinion

Women tend to support Democratic candidates more than men, especially on social issues like gun control and healthcare.

Political socialization

The lifelong process through which people form their political values and beliefs.

Most influential agent of political socialization

Family.

Other agents of political socialization

School, peers/social media, religion, major events.

Impact of major events on public opinion

Events like 9/11 or George Floyd's death can cause rapid opinion changes or reinforce existing beliefs.

Group identity influence on opinion

People often adopt opinions aligned with demographic, regional, or cultural groups they identify with.

Mass survey

A structured method of measuring public opinion using questions posed to a random sample of people.

Importance of random sampling in polling

It ensures the results are representative of the entire population.

Margin of error in polling

It's the predicted range within which the true opinion lies, reflecting statistical uncertainty.

Social desirability bias

When respondents give answers they believe are socially acceptable rather than their true views.

Polling errors in the 2016 election

Undercounting non-college-educated voters and late shifts among undecided voters—not media bias.

Reliability of a survey

Clear wording, random sampling, large enough size, transparent methods, and consistent replication.

Push polling

Biased surveys designed to sway respondents under the guise of polling.

Focus groups

Small groups interviewed in-depth to gain qualitative insights into public opinion.

Difference between sample and population

A sample is a subset of the population used to estimate the views of the whole.

Accuracy of survey questions about everyday life

Respondents take them more seriously and provide more informed answers.

Role of media as a linkage institution

It connects the public with policymakers by sharing information in both directions.

Filter bubble

An online environment where users are only exposed to information that reinforces their views.

Echo chamber effect

A situation where beliefs are amplified or reinforced by communication and repetition within a closed system.

Hostile media effect

The tendency to see neutral news as biased against one's views.

Framing in media

How an issue or story is presented to influence public interpretation.

Mainstream media

Broad-reaching media with traditional journalistic standards (e.g., CNN, ABC, NBC).

Narrowcast media

It targets specific ideological or interest groups (e.g., Fox News, MSNBC).

Primary bias of for-profit media

Economic bias—driven by ratings and advertising revenue more than partisanship.

Reagan-era deregulation effect on media

Ended the Fairness Doctrine and enabled media consolidation.

Media conglomerate

A large corporation that owns many media outlets across different platforms.

Deepfakes

AI-generated videos that alter someone's appearance or voice to mislead viewers.

Memes in political extremism

To recruit and radicalize young users, especially through humor and viral formats.

Trump and Obama media use difference

Trump used Twitter for direct messaging; Obama pioneered political use of YouTube/social media.

FCC's equal time rule

Requires broadcasters to give equal airtime to all candidates if offered to one.

Soundbite

A short, catchy statement used in media to simplify political messaging.

General level of political knowledge in the U.S.

It is generally low and often distorted by misinformation or apathy.

Groups with similar levels of political knowledge

Viewers of traditional news and late-night comedy news shows.

Political typology

A more nuanced way to categorize political beliefs beyond left-right ideology.

Role of polls for politicians

They use them to time actions, shape messaging, and justify positions to voters.

Public opinion effect on elections

Voters often base decisions on economic conditions, media framing, and candidate soundbites.

swing state

A state where support for Democratic and Republican candidates is nearly even, making it competitive and crucial for winning presidential elections.

likely voters (LV)

Those identified as most likely to vote based on behavior/history.

registered voters (RV)

People who have officially registered to vote.

voting age population (VAP)

All people eligible by age, regardless of registration or voting behavior.

most predictive group in election polling

Likely voters are most predictive, especially in swing states.

2016 presidential election polling inaccuracy

Pollsters undercounted non-college-educated white voters and misweighted education levels in swing states; also, late-deciding voters broke for Trump.

essential elements of a reliable public opinion poll

Random sampling, representative demographics, clear question wording, transparent methodology, and a reasonable margin of error (±3% at 95% confidence).

common problems with public opinion polls

Poor sampling methods, nonresponse bias, biased or unclear wording, push polling, social desirability bias, timing (e.g., early polling before voter opinions solidify).

social desirability bias in polling

When respondents give answers they believe are more socially acceptable rather than their true views (e.g., saying they voted when they did not).

reducing sampling error

By increasing the sample size, using random digit dialing, and weighting results to match the population's demographics.

poll accuracy closer to an election

Voter preferences are more stable, more people are paying attention, and late-deciders are better accounted for.

horserace journalism

Media coverage that focuses on who is ahead or behind in the polls rather than discussing policy positions or qualifications.

frequent polling effect on media coverage

It encourages shallow coverage focused on poll numbers, competition, and momentum instead of substantive issues and candidate platforms.

elected officials use polling during campaigns

To test messages, target advertisements, tailor stump speeches, and decide where to allocate resources (especially in swing states).

elected officials use polling in policymaking

To gauge constituent support, time announcements or votes, and frame issues in a way that aligns with public preferences.

best polling data for presidential election outcome

Polls of likely voters in swing states, aggregated from multiple sources.

best polling data for presidential approval

National surveys of adults or registered voters, tracked over time to show trends.