Parties & Voting Behaviour

Issue Voting

Voters choose the party they trust most on the salient issue of the election

In 2017, many voters trusted the Conservative Party more to Get Brexit Done

Valence and governing competence

A valence is one where all major parties agree on the goal e.g. improving the NHS

Voters therefore focus on not policy differences but which party they trust to deliver that goal (competence becomes a key factor in determining support)

Economic performance

Govs may be rewarded or punished for their economic record

John Major’s failure to prevent the collapse of the pound of Black Wednesday (1992) damaged the Conservative’s reputation for econo competence

This contributed to Labour landslide victory in 1997

Leadership appeal and competence

Charismatic or trusted leaders can significantly influence election outcomes

Tony Blair in 1997 and Boris Johnson in 2019 successfully presented strong, appealing leadership that delivered large majorities

Leadership failures and negative perceptions

In 2017, Theresa May was criticised for calling an election after previously ruling one out, creating distrust

Her refusal to take part in TV debates reinforced negative perceptions

“You don’t say it’s the most important election of our lifetime and not be bothered to show up” - Caroline Lucas (former Green Party leader)

Media endorsements

Newspapers endorsements have historically aligned with electoral outcomes

The Sun’s endorsement of Tony Blair in the 1997 general election:

• The Sun had previously supported the Conservatives but switched to Labour, running the headline “The Sun Backs Blair”

• Labour won a landslide victory and the paper claimed “It’s The Sun Wot Won It”

However, as readership declines, social media platforms allow parties to reach voters directly and challenge traditional media influence

Campaign events and messaging

Parties’ campaign strategies shape voter perceptions of credibility and personality

• Lib Dems 2024 used high-profile stunts to increase visibility and communicate their message

• In 2019, Boris Johnson appeared to hide in a fridge to avoid reporters, damaging his image

• 2017, Theresa May’s attempt to avoid controversy, by claiming her naughtiest act was running through fields of wheat led to widespread ridicule

Tactical Voting

• Involves voters casting their ballot to block a disliked party rather than support their first preference

• 2019, nearly half of Labour said their motivation was to “get the Tories out’

• Websites in 2019 and 2024 facilitated vote swapping to maximise the effect of tactical voting

Scandals affecting voters trust

Scandals reduce confidence in political parties and can shift electoral outcomes

The 2009 expenses scandal saw several MPs lose their seats

• E.g. Jacqui Smith resigned after misusing Parliamentary allowances, including her husband claiming for adult films

The Partygate scandal severely damaged Boris Johnson’s credibility

• Led to his resignation in 2022, triggered further instability under Truss and Sunak, and contributed to the Conservatives’ heavy losses in 2024