Pol Sci 50 Midterm

The three definitions of comparative politics?

• The study of political phenomena in every country except the one in which the student resides.

• The study of political phenomena through the comparative method

• The study of political phenomena that are predominantly within country relationships.

What are some advantages of taking a cross-national approach?

• Democracy has limited variation within countries: very few countries vary/change in their experience of democracy, so single country studies make it difficult to impossible to answer questions of causes and consequences

• Political institutions have limited variation within countries: see above

• Socioeconomic conditions have limited variation within countries: see above

• Culture has limited variation within countries: see above

What is Science?

Science is a strategy for understanding and explaining the social and natural world that emphasizes the use of statements that can be examined to see whether they’re wrong.

What are some key parts of Science?

• Science as the never-ending quest for knowledge

• Science as a method for provisionally understanding the world

• Scientific statements must be falsifiable (or: testable)

  • Science as a critically evaluating quest for knowledge

• Popper: science can help us progressively approach the truth but we can never be certain that we have the final explanation

What are the steps of the scientific method?

1. Question or puzzle (“Why do we observe X?”)

2. Theory or model

• Collection of logically consistent statements that help explain our observations

• Links a cause or causal process to our observation of X

• Relatively abstract, simplified

3. Implications or hypotheses

• Very specific consequences of the theory

• If the theory is true, then what (else) should we observe?

• Good theories lead to many hypotheses (not just about X)

4. Observe the world (test the hypotheses)

• Also consider alternative explanations

5. Evaluation

• Might provide support for your theory, but never proof that it is true

• Remember:

  • never-ending quest for knowledge

  • provisionally understanding the world

  • step by step closer to the truth

Prospect Theory

people think about gains and losses in different, asymmetric ways → losses weigh more heavily than gains (loss aversion)

How do political ideologies speak to (the book’s discussion of) science?

• Political ideologies do not fit with the emphasis on scientific theories and empirical evidence → Why?

  • Ideologies are collections of ideas, beliefs, values, and attitudes → difficult (impossible?) to use observation to evaluate their “truthfulness”

• Science: focus on how to think rather than what to think

• Ideologies: focus on what to think

What are the 3 main political ideologies?

• Conservatism: Tradition, hierarchical; rejects radical social change (e.g., revolutions) that tries to unseat existing power structures

• Liberalism: Modernity; stresses rights and freedoms, stems from the opposition to feudal and absolutist rule in Europe

• Socialism: Critique of both; concerned about distribution of wealth and means of production after the industrial revolution (inequality)

Why is logic important?

Logic is very important. My main takeaways for our class:

1. “If you can’t distinguish between a valid argument and an invalid one, other people will be able to manipulate and exploit you. You’ll be one of life’s suckers.”

• → Ok, ok, perhaps a bit overly aggressive for an intro textbook.

2. Tables 2.7 and 2.8.

• → Important for science/hypothesis testing

Is this a valid or invalid logical argument?

If P, then Q

Not Q

Therefore, not P

Valid argument

Is this a valid or invalid logical argument?

If P, then Q

Q

Therefore, P

Invalid argument

Is this a valid or invalid logical argument?

If P, then Q: If our theory T is correct, then we should observe some implication I

Not Q: We do not observe some implication I.

Therefore, not P: Therefore, our theory T is incorrect.

Valid argument → “easy” to refute our theory based on evaluation

Is this a valid or invalid logical argument?

If P, then Q: If our theory T is correct, then we should

observe some implication I

Q: We observe some implication I

Therefore, P: Therefore, our theory T is correct.

Invalid argument → impossible to “confirm” our theory based on evaluation

Can our theory ever be “confirmed”?

• It is logically invalid to say “our theory is correct, because we observe the implication”.

• Instead, we can say “the data/observation is in line with our theory”.

• Or: “the evaluation supports our theory”.

• BUT: It is always possible that the theory will still be refuted later on.

What is Polity?

used in the sense of “community”, an identifiable political entity, an organized group of people (cities, states, countries, ...) → the institutional setting

What are politics?

the power struggle between the players inside the polity (elections, votes, negotiations, ...) → the process

What is Policy?

collectively binding decisions across different social domains (laws, decisions, ...) → the content/outcome

What is Game Theory?

• Exit, Voice, and Loyalty “game”

• Game theory is not only important for Comparative Politics or Political Science. It can help us understand (human) behavior in any setting

• Rational decision-maker: an actor (“player”, human) with clear preferences who tries to achieve an optimal expected outcome

• Strategic interaction: an interaction between at least two actors, usually interdependent

• My actions affect your outcomes, your actions affect my outcomes

• Mathematical models: sort of (see CGG), but actually more about logic

  • Ultimately, one way to make politics scientific

What is the Prisoner’s Dilemma?

N/A

What does the Prisoner Dilemma have to do with politics?

• A Prisoner’s Dilemma occurs because players have no way to coordinate and trust each other

• Result: worse outcome for everyone than would otherwise be possible

• Real world examples:

  • Government shutdown in the US

  • Arms races and conflict (Cold War)

  • Climate agreements

  • Turnout and “free-riding”

• Common solution: powerful institutions can solve this problem, for example, through establishing and enforcing penalties for not honoring agreements (e.g., WTO, EU, legal system, ...)

What does the EVL game focus on?

What should you do when there is a negative change in your environment?

What way can citizens react in EVL?

• Exit: accept the change and adjust behavior

• Voice: try to reverse the change (protest, complain, petitions, ...)

• Loyalty: accept the change and do not adjust behavior

If citizens choose Voice, how can the Government respond?

• Respond: give in, do not enforce the change

• Ignore: implement the change regardless

If citizens choose Voice, and the Government chooses to ignore, what options do the citizens have?

• Exit: accept the change and adjust behavior after all

• Loyalty: accept the change and do not adjust your behavior after all

When is voice successful?

1. E > 0 there is a credible exit threat AND

2. L > 1 the government is dependent

When do citizens have no power?

Without a credible exit option

When does having a credible exit option not work?

When the government is autonomous (not dependent on its citizens).

Why can it be difficult to infer preferences based on observed behavior?

• Citizens might want change (true preference), but without a credible exit threat, they remain loyal (observed behavior)

• Governments might be dependent, but when citizens have no exit option they do not “use voice” and the government therefore appears autonomous (China, Iran, North Korea)

• ⇒ easy to draw wrong conclusions about both citizens and gov’t!

How can the Exit, Voice, and Loyalty illustrate power relations (politics!) using game theory?

Can help us understand

• When citizens take action against the state

• When states respond positively to citizen demands

• When states ignore citizens

Game theory in general as a useful tool to understand politics and human interactions (think and anticipate other’s preferences and choices)

What are common methods used to ‘observe the world (test the hypotheses)’?

• Case studies

• “Comparative method”

• Statistical method

• Experimental method

What is the ideal goal in most studies?

To establish causality. We want to show that (or understand how) X causes/affects Y.

Correlation is not causation. But what is the difference?

• Correlation: the degree to which a pair of variables are related (occur together)

• Causation: degree to which one variable causes/affects another

• Because causation is often difficult to establish, we can also be interested in correlations.

What are case studies?

• An up-close, in-depth, and detailed examination of one particular case

• Often qualitative in nature (not so much focused on numbers)

What are the advantages and strengths of case studies?

• Extremely careful, deep, comprehensive, and detailed knowledge of the specific case

• Possible to use information (e.g., from interviews) that might be difficult to quantify

• Often requires fewer resources than other approaches

Disadvantages and weaknesses

• Difficult to generalize to other, similar cases (theory building)

• Potentially allows for criticism of subjectivity

• Can be difficult to replicate (by others, or on other case)

What is the comparative method?

• Comparison of a small number of cases

• NCaseStudy < NComparativeMethod < NStatisticalMethod

• Middle way between case studies and statistical analysis

What are the advantages and strengths of the Comparative method?

• Allows for a careful examination of a few cases

• Broader approach than a single case study

• Comparative: can compare across different settings

What are the disadvantages and weaknesses of the Comparative Method?

• More than one case, but still very difficult to generalize to other, similar cases

• Impossible to consider many different variables/causes

• → Difficult to disentangle competing/alternative explanations

What is John Stuart Mill’s method of agreement?

Have to agree on the outcome

• Can look at their x’s to see how that leads to the y

• They differ in a lot of things so you look for the one thing is similar in order to try to explain the outcome

Compares instances of a phenomenon to see if they share a unique common circumstance, identifying it as a potential cause.

What is John Stuart Mill’s method of difference?

• Have a different outcome

• The majority of variables are similar so you must look for the one variables that differ to try to explain the different outcome

Compares a case where the phenomenon occurs with one where it does not (otherwise similar), identifying the unique differing factor as the cause

Does the comparative method demonstrate causation or correlation?

Correlation but it’s trying to get us to causation

What is the statistical method?

• Comparison of many different cases (large N analysis)

• Fully quantitative (focused on numbers)

What are the advantages and strengths of the statistical method?

• Allows for the examination of many cases

• Theories can be tested in lots of different settings

• Possible to study effects of many different variables (i.e., alternative theories and explanations)

What are the disadvantages and weaknesses of the statistical method?

• Cannot be as detailed as case studies or “comparative method”

• Sometimes difficult to incorporate very case-specific knowledge

• Necessarily loses some detail

• Data collection can be difficult (but it’s not the 1970s or 1990s anymore!)

Statistical method: What are descriptive statistics?

It provides basic information about a variable

Statistical method: What is explanatory statistics/correlations?

Study relationships between two OR MORE variables of interest

What is the experimental method?

• Controlled and usually (quasi-)random manipulation of the explanatory variable of interest

• If I (or someone else, god/nature) change X, what happens to Y?

What are the advantages and strengths of the experimental method?

• Best approach to identify causality with certainty

• Alternative explanations can be ruled out

What are the disadvantages and weaknesses to the experimental method?

• Can be difficult (and/or costly) in many social science settings – but definitely not impossible!

• Can have limited generalizability (see: case studies)

• Potential ethical concerns

What is located in the introduction of academic work?

• Introduces and motivates the topic (why should we care?)

• Should clearly state the specific research question

• Will often already preview all remaining parts

• No TV show: no cliffhangers, but massive spoilers starting on p. 1

What is located in the literature review/theory/argument/hypothesis/expectations section of academic work?

• Summarizes existing work on the topic and how it relates to the current piece you are reading

• Then formulates the theory/theoretical argument and derives specific hypotheses or expectations

What is located in the data & analysis section of academic work?

• Explains what data is used to test the hypotheses

  • How are important concepts measured? Where does the data come from?

• Presents the empirical analysis (hypotheses testing) and discusses the results and findings

What is located in the conclusion section of academic work?

• Reviews and summarizes all of the above

• Clearly states the findings and how they contribute to the existing literature

• Highlights important implications (i.e., main takeaway, “so what?”)

• Often points out some (new or remaining) open questions for future research

What should you typically read first when reading academic work?

The abstract!

What is often missing in the abstract in academic work?

The theory as it is sometimes too difficult to shorten for the abstract.

What is a state?

an entity that uses coercion and the threat of force to rule in a given territory.

What are things to look for when determining if a thing is a state?

Look for these components:

• Territory

• Population

• Sovereignty

• Government

• (International recognition)

What is a nation?

a group of people who share some sort of common identity like a language, a religion, an ethnicity, or a shared history.

• → Nations do not require one particular territory

What is a nation-state?

a state in which a single nation predominates and the legal, social, demographic, and geographic boundaries of the state are connected in important ways to that nation

What is a “failed state”?

A state-like entity that cannot coerce and is unable to successfully control the inhabitants in a given territory.

Is state failure a dichotomous (0/1) phenomenon?

• No. Better to think of a continuum of “stateness” or state effectiveness.

• → Fragile state index

How do we identify a fragile state?

• The loss of physical control over its territory or the monopoly on claim of use of force

• The erosion of legitimate authority to make collective decisions

• An inability to provide reasonable public services

• The inability to interact with other states as full members of the international community

How does Hobbes describe what life would be like without a state?

The state of nature is a “war of all against all” in which life is “solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short.”

What dilemma do individuals in the state of nature face?

• Everyone would be better off if they could all agree not to take advantage of each other.

• But if an act of violence or theft were to happen, it would be better to be the attacker than the victim.

A state of nature is an example of what?

The Prisoner’s Dilemma

How does the state of nature as a Prisoner’s dilemma relate the the origins of the state?

• Social contract theory

• State of nature that makes it difficult for citizens to behave themselves

• Without a “common power to keep them all in awe,” the people will

  • choose to steal and kill

  • forever live in fear

What is Hobbes’ solution to the state of nature (social contract view)?

• Create a “common power to keep them all in awe”: centralized authority (i.e., sovereign) with sufficient force

• Individuals transfer power to the sovereign in exchange for protection

• → State gets everyone to “refrain.”

• Individuals would give up their natural rights in return for civil rights

  • Natural rights are universal and exist in the state of nature

  • Civil rights don’t exist in the state of nature but are instead created by states through laws

  • → Give up some freedom (to hurt) to receive protection (from being hurt)

What is the Inherent tension to Hobbes’ solution?

• How much should individuals give up?

• Hobbes wrote during the English Civil War → willing to give up a lot in return for protection

• Others see less need for protection → willing to give up fewer freedoms

  • (Jefferson: should regularly rewrite Constitution or engage in revolution)

• Citizens will prefer state over state of nature when

• (1) punishment sufficiently large, (2) taxation sufficiently small

What is the predatory view of the state?

States emerge as an unintentional by-product of individuals seeking increased power, authority, and domination over others in an anarchic environment.

What happens in the state of nature under the predatory view?

• People are looking for security X

• Some individuals have a comparative advantage in the use of violence and thus have an incentive to provide protection ×

• The state is an organization that trades security for revenue X

• But: not an impartial third-party enforcer that selflessly solves the collective dilemmas that exist between members of society ×

• Instead: the state resembles a form of organized crime and can be viewed as an extortion racket (Tilly) ×

• State institutions (police, military, bureaucracy, judiciary, taxes, ...) not created to create a state, but to help rulers stay in power and extract resources ×

• X similar to Hobbes, × different

Why did Plato and Aristotle have a negative view of democracy?

• Plato: would fail and surrender to a tyrant

• Aristotle: common people would rule for themselves and “against” the wealthy → aristocracy as best form, even if corrupted into oligarchy

What did democracy mean back then?

• Direct legislation, not representative government!

• Elections happened in aristocratic regimes: leaders were chosen by lot!

When did the first wave of democratization occur?

1828-1926

When did the first reverse wave of democratization occur?

1922-1942

When did the second wave of democratization occur?

1943-1962

When did the second reverse wave occur?

1958-1975

When did the third wave of democratization occur?

1974-

How do we know a democracy when we see one? How do we determine if/to what extent a country is democratic?

• Democracy is an abstract theoretical concept

  • Mental category or construct capturing the meaning of objects, events, ideas

  • Theoretical concepts cannot be directly observed – exist only in our heads

• To test theories and research questions, we need to translate theoretical concepts into specific and concrete measures, indicators, or criteria

• → This process is called operationalization

What are some common operationalizations of democracy?

• Electoral democracy

• Liberal democracy

• Social democracy

What is electoral democracy?

Presence of regular, free, and fair elections

What is liberal democracy?

Respect for civil rights and political liberties

What is social democracy?

Presence of policies aiming at social equality

What are some examples of non-democratic regimes?

Authoritarian regimes, autocracies, dictatorships

• No electoral competition or public participation

What are important differences in the type of operationalization?

• Minimalist or procedural approaches: based on institutions + procedures

• Substantive approaches: based on (political) outcomes

What is Robert Dahl’s minimalist view of democracy?

1. Contestation: freedom to organize into competing blocs to press for the policies and outcomes (freedom to form parties, to assemble, freedom of speech, free + fair elections, ...)

2. Inclusion: who gets to participate in the democratic process (all adults vs limitations based on ethnicity, gender, ...)

⇒ Clear focus on institutions + procedures, building block for many contemporary measures of democracy

What view or definition did Aristotle work with?

He feared that the common people would rule for themselves and “against” the wealthy → substantive definition

What is the definition of Democracy-Dictatorship (DD), and what factors does it have for qualifying as a democratic state?

Definition of democracy: “Democracies are regimes in which governmental offices are filled as a consequence of contested elections.”

A country is defined as a democracy (democracy = 1) if:

1. The chief executive is elected

2. The legislature is elected

3. There is more than one party competing in the elections

4. An alternation in power under identical electoral rules has taken place

→ All four must hold; the country is classified as a dictatorship

Does DD follow the minimalist or substantive definition?

→ Clearly minimalist/procedural, no consideration of substantive outcomes

What is the Freedom House definition of democratization?

• Annual measure of “global freedom”

  • Technically not exactly democracy, but very widely used that way

• Scores for Political Rights (PR) and Civil Liberties (CL)

• PR: 0-40, CL: 0-60

What are political rights scored on for Freedom House?

Score is based on 10 questions covering

• Electoral Process (e.g., free and fair elections)

• Political pluralism and participation (e.g., right to organize in parties)

• Functioning of government (e.g., safeguards against corruption)

What are civil liberties scored on for Freedom House?

score is based on 15 questions covering

• Freedom of expression and belief (e.g., independent media)

• Associational and organizational rights (e.g., freedom of assembly)

• Rule of law (e.g., independent judiciary, freedom from war)

• Personal autonomy and individual rights (e.g., freedom of movement, equality of opportunity)

Does Freedom House follow a minimalist or substantive definition?

→ Substantive!

→ Covers Dahl’s inclusion and contestation, but adds substantive indicators

(freedom from war, equality of opportunities, ...)

What is the V-Dem definition of democracy?

• Based on scores for freedom of association, clean elections, freedom of expression, elected officials, and suffrage

• Each score is based on several indicators and measured on a 0-1 scale

• All five scores are then combined using a complicated formula to produce a final 0-1 overall Electoral democracy score

• There are no cutoffs for democracy vs dictatorship, just a continuous score

• Based on a combination of scores, V-Dem classifies countries’ regimes as liberal democracy, electoral democracy, electoral autocracy, closed autocracy

What are the main dimensions for V-Dem?

Freedom of association (6 indicators)

• Party bans, Opposition party autonomy

• Repression of civil society organizations ...

Clean elections (8 indicators)

• Free and fair elections, Vote buying, Government intimidation

• Election management body autonomy ...

Freedom of expression (9 indicators)

• Media (self) censorship

• Freedom of discussion for men/women

• Freedom of academic and cultural expression ...

Elected officials

• (How) are the chief executive and legislature elected?

Suffrage

• Share of adult population with the right to vote in national elections

Is V-Dem considered minimalist or substantive?

→ Minimalist!

→ LOTS of indicators, but ultimately focused on inclusion and contestation

What is Polity IV?

• Polity provides annual scores for democracy and autocracy

• Each score ranges from 0-10

• Overall polity score: Democracy Score - Autocracy Score

  • Overall score ranges from -10 to +10

Countries are defined based on their overall polity score as follows:

• -10 to -6: Autocratic (Authoritarian)

• -5 to +5: Anocratic (Semi-democratic)

• +6 to +10: Democratic

What are the main dimensions of Polity IV?

The different scores are calculated based on multiple indicators across six key

dimensions:

1. Regulation of executive recruitment (coups vs elections)

2. Competitiveness of executive recruitment (inherited vs elected)

3. Openness of executive recruitment (can anyone become executive?)

4. Regulation of political participation (one party vs multi party)

5. Competitiveness of political participation (opposition?)

6. Executive constraints (no limitations vs oversight)

Is Polity a minimalist or substantive definition?

→ Clearly minimalist/procedural, no consideration of substantive outcomes

→ In fact, very close to Dahl’s definition (inclusion and contestation), with the addition of executive constraints!

Why are validity and reliability important?

• Ideally we want measures that are highly reliable and valid

• But those might not always exist (for every concept)

• Sometimes we have to make trade offs and compromises

How to determine whether you should use minimalist or substantive measure?

• Do you want to capture mostly procedural features or also outcomes?

• If outcomes are included (substantive), it is difficult to study the effect of democracy on outcomes

• Democracy ↔ Outcome