Is the spread of democracy, liberal economies, and rule of law in decline?

Definitions

• Democracy - system of government in which political power is vested in the people, either directly or elected representatives.

• Rule of law - principle that all individuals and institutions, including the government, are subject to and accountable under the law, which ensures consistency and fairness.

• Liberal economy - characterised by free markets, minimal government intervention, and protection of private property, which maximises economic growth and innovation.

P1 - Liberal economies are in decline

• Since the 2008 financial crisis in particular, it can be argued that liberal economies have been in significant decline with their flaws exposed, Western governments moving away promoting ideals of free trade and successful alternatives gaining prominence.

• The 2008 financial crisis arguably did permanent damage to liberal economies, which has since the end of the Cold War been spreading across the world and promoted by the US and prominent IGOs as the path towards prosperity.

  • It led to widespread disillusionment with neoliberal policies. Many argued that the deregulated markets championed by liberal economists had failed to protect ordinary citizens and had exacerbated inequality.

  • In the US, the top 1% of earners captured 20% of total national income by 2020, compared to 10% in 1980.

  • The crisis also forced the government o step in and bail out banks, such as the $700B Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) in the United States, showing the important role the state has to play in managing economies.

• Additionally, the financial crisis also led to the decline of liberal economies as the economic deprivation it created contributed to the growing support for populist movements across the world, which gained traction by criticising failures of globalisation and features of liberal economies.

  • In the US, Trump has shifted U.S. economic policy to be very protectionist rather than free trade since his re-election.

  • In April 2025, the U.S. placing a 145% tariff on most Chinese goods and placing a 10% tariff on all imports to the U.S. from elsewhere, whilst the US continues to prevent the WTO from promoting free trade by refusing to approve new appointments to it’d Appellate body.

• Lastly, it can be argued that liberal economies are in decline due to the success of China under state-managed capitalism presenting a real alternative and challenge to free markets.

  • Through a combination of state control and market elements, China has achieved rapid economic growth, booming the world’s second largest economy.

  • This has undermined the idea that neoliberal reforms and economics are the only path to economic success and countries may begin to adopt China’s model. This can be evidenced by Chinas Belt and Road Initiative which is comprised of 141 countries.

P1 - Liberal economies are not in decline

• On the other hand, it can be argued that liberal economies aren’t in decline as they remain a dominant global force, with free-market principles continuing to drive growth in many regions.

  • Major economies such as the U.S., the European Union, and Japan still rely on free-market capitalism, fostering innovation and global competition.

    • Of the worlds top 10 economies by GDP, 9 of them remain liberal economies and there is significant interaction between them.

  • With supply chains between these countries so deeply interlinked and multinational corporations having significant power, it seems unlikely that these countries will mov away from liberal ideals.

  • Further, in Asia, liberal economic principles helped lift over 1.2 billion people out of extreme poverty from 1990 to 2015, according to world bank data.

• It can also be argued that liberal economies aren’t in decline as the system of global governance continues to promote liberal ideology across the world.

  • The IMF and WB continue to operate based on the belief that free market capitalism is the solution t development and promotes it through conditions placed on its loans.

    • For example, the IMF gave Argentina a $20B bail out package in April 2025 to tackle its foreign currency crisis, because of the fact that Javier Milei had implemented a strict austerity agenda since becoming president in 2023.

  • The WTO also promotes liberal economies by supporting free trade and protecting against protectionism through facilitating mulutlateral trade agreements and resolving disputes to prevent trade wars.

P2 - Rule of law is in decline

• There is a strong argument that the rule of law has been is significant decline over the past decade, both in Western countries that have been democracies for a long time and due to the rise in power of authoritarian regimes which have ignored the rule of law.

• The rise in populism in Western countries over the past decade has been accompanies by attacks on the rule of law, particularly in democracies where populist leaders have sought to undermine judicial independence and weaken democratic checks and balances against their power.

  • In Poland, the ruling Law and Justice Party has sought to take control of the judiciary by replacing independent judges and altering the constitutional court.

  • In the US, since Trump’s reelection in 2025, there have been numerous accusations that the administration mass deportation programme has included the denial of due process to large numbers of migrants, which the Republican Party are happy to accept.

• The Rule of Law has also been damaged by the rise of China and Russia, which have used their legal systems to suppress dissent and maintain power within their own countries, whilst also using their power in international institutions to prevent the erosion of state sovereignty to protect human rights in other countries.

  • Both counties have used their veto powers in the UNSC to prevent international movement against their erosion of the rule of law and human rights, including against investigation into China’s genocide of Uyghurs in Xianjing and Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine.

• These attacks on the rule of law have arguably been facilitated by the U.S. loss of global repute as a defender of rule of law in the War on Terror.

  • During the War on Terror, the US proved itself to be a hypocrite as it used torture and unlawfully imprisoned ‘enemy combatants’ in Guantanamo Bay.

P2 - Rule of law is not in decline

• On the other hand, it can be argued that the rule of law isn’t in decline as it continues to be a fundamental aspect of governance in many parts of the world.

• In democratic countries across Europe and Asia, judicial independence remains strong, with legal frameworks that ensure accountability and protect individual rights.

  • In the US for example, Trump sought to undermine the rule of law by challenging the results of the 2020 election, but the rule of law and judicial institutions were strong enough to force him out of office, whilst the Supreme Court has also more recently stood against his attempts to deny due process to deported migrants.

• The rule of law is also upheld by international governmental institutions, like the European Court of Human Rights, and the International Criminal Court, reinforce the global legal standards and provide mechanisms to uphold the rule of law across borders.

  • The ECtHR allows individuals from member states to bring cases against their governments for human rights violations.

    • In Oliari and Others v. Italy, the ECtHR ruled that Italy’s lack of legal recognition for same-sex partnerships violated the applicants’ rights under the ECHR. The decision pressured Italy to reform its laws, illustrating how IGOs enforce human rights standards and the rule of law across Europe,

  • Similarly, the ICC prosecutes individuals for grave offences such as genocide, war crimes, and crimes against humanity, particularly when national courts are unable or unwilling to hold perpetrators accountable.

    • For example, in March 2025, former President of the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte was arrested and transferred to The Hague for charges related to his tenure in office regarding procedural and substantive ultra vires.

P3 - Democracy is in decline

• It can also be argued that democracy is facing a serious decline in various regions, known as the phenomenon of ‘democratic backsliding’. Both the rise of populism and authoritarianism have presented significant threats.

• After a decade of relatively successful democracy promotion in the 1990s, the 2000s showed the difficulty of US efforts to impose democratic institutions on other countries, particularly in the Middle East.

  • In both Iraq and Afghanistan, one of the stated aims of the invasion was to bring democracy, however both efforts failed completely. Iraq descended into sectarian violence and instability, with democratic institutions proving fragile in the face of internal divisions, whilst Afghanistan saw the return with the Taliban.

• In the 2010s, a number of strongman populist leaders in democracies significantly weakened democratic institutions and eroded civil liberties to such an extent that they are now semi-democratic regimes where one-party has a significant advantage in elections.

  • In India, Prime Minister, Narendra Modi’s government has faced criticism for eroding democratic institutions, particularly its treatment of religious minorities, suppression of dissent and oppression in the media in the 2024 election.

  • In Hungary, Prime Minister, Viktor Orban’s government has implemented a series of reforms that have given it an advantage in elections, including appointing loyalists to key judicial powers and suppressing media outlets and left-wing university courses.

• Thus, democracy is in decline across the world because this democratic backsliding is coupled with the growing power of Russia, China, and Iran, who have formed a non-democratic axis that challenges US dominance and promotion of democracy globally.

P3 - Democracy is not in decline

• On the other hand, it can be argued that democracy’s decline has been overstated as it remains the most common form of governance across the world. Over 60% of nations hold regular elections and in many countries, democratic institutions continue to function effectively.

  • In Western Europe, Canada, Japan, and Australia, democratic governance remains robust, with active political participation, free press, and protection of civil liberties.

  • Further, a number of many countries which saw populist leaders have success in the 2010s have since elected left-wing/ liberal leaders who have better respected and protected democratic institutions.

  • In 2022, Brazil elected Lula, a left-wing leader who prioritised environmental protection and democratic norms, making a shift from the populist right wing policies and rhetoric of his predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro.

    • Lula’s administration has worked to rebuild trust in government institutions and address social inequality to tackle the root causes of support for Bolsonaro.

• Further, IGOs such as the UN and the EU remain committed to promoting democratic norms and free elections around the world.

  • The UN frequently deploys electoral assistance missions, providing technical supports and monitoring to ensure fair elections in countries undergoing democratic transitions, such as its missions in Iraq in 2021.

    • By supporting election integrity and transparency, the UN helps build trust in new democracies and strengthens local institutions.

  • The EU promotes democracy through its European Instrument for Democracy and Human Rights, which funds initiatives to protect human rights, foster free elections, and strengthen civil society in partner countries.

    • For instance, the EU provided extending support to Tunisia after the Arab Spring in 2011, aiding the development of democratic institutions and monitoring.