Factors which affect the voting behaviour of voters - issue and valence based voting

What is valency?

A political issue where there is a broad amount of consensus among voters

What is the valency model of voting behaviour?

Describes how voters compare their own opinions on important issues with those of the different parties. For example, which party, if any do you trust most to Grow Britain’s economy?

Why is valency sometimes called economic voting

Number 1 issue is who do you trust to run the economy

How was valence an important predictor for floating voters in 1997

Due to Black Wednesday (1992) people lost trust in the Conservatives to run the economy. Blair promised to be more responsible. (eg. Making the bank of England independent over interest rates)

How was valence an important factor of floating voters in the 2001 election

The economy was booming so Labour won easily

How was valence an important factor of floating voters in the 2010 election

The recession in 2008 essentially blacklisted Labour from 2008-2013

Why is valence strongly linked to the perception of party leaders

If they are trusted to sustain economic prosperity they will be elected. They are the embodiment of the party and its image (Thatcher and Blair) instead of chaotic leaders (Truss)

A successful party leader 1997

Tony Blair - young, charismatic

An unsuccessful party leader in 1997

Defeated the grey man John Major who was considered weak and boring

The successful party leader in the 2019 election

Boris Johnson - “Get Brexit Done” seemed energetic, involved in funny media stunts

The unsuccessful party leader in the 2019 election

Jeremy Corbyn had a confusing position on a potential second referendum in Brexit

Tactical voting: Celebrity campaign led by who?

Carol Vorderman led a campaign in the 2024 election to reduce the Conservatives to 70 seats by tactical voting

Tactical voting: How many voters voted tactically against the Conservatives in the 2024 election

25% of voters in 2024

Tactical voters: When it worked

The conservatives scored their lowest ever percentage of the vote, 24%