Population Dynamics (53-58)

The study of population dynamics includes the analysis of what?

Population fluctuations and their underlying causes

What are the underlying causes behind population fluctuations?

Birthrates, mortality rates and migration

Movements, increases, and decreases in population depend on what?

Technological, economic, political, and cultural development

Over the course of the DTM a population transitions from what types of death rates and birthrates?

From high death and birthrates to low ones.

What are demographics?

Human population data from a particular place and time

What are exa,mples of demographic data?

Age, gender, ethnicity, income, education, household structure etc

What is TFR?

Total fertility rate, the average number of children born to a woman who survives her childbearing years

Where is Sub-Saharan Africa?

Bottom 75% of Africa, South of the Saharan Desert

Name 3 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa with high TFR’s

Chad, Niger Somalia

Why do families in Sub-Saharan Africa prefer to have bigger families?

Cultural traditions and/or the value of children’s labor

What was the global TFR in 1963?

5.3

What was the global TFR in 1992?

3

What was the global TFR in 2023?

2.2

Name 4 developed countries

US, Germany, Canada, Japan

Describe the life in the US, Germany, Canada, and Japan which lead to reduced TFRs

Urban lifestyles, easy access to healthcare (reproductive especially), birth control, and contraceptives

Name 3 countries which are becoming developed and experiencing a decrease in TFR

Thailand, Jamaica, Ghana

What other metric is TFR often confused with?

CBR

What is CBR?

Criude birth rate, which measures the amount of annual births per 1000 people in a population

Is CBR or TFR the more accurate measure of fertility?

TFR is more accurate

Why is CBR less accurate at measuring fertility?

It does not consider age-related reproductive dependence

CBR provides valuable data for what?>

Population pyramids

What characteristic of age do population pyramids catch>?

The fluctuations in population of an age range

What does a wider population in the middle than at the bottom of a population pyramid mean?

A large generation of aging, working adults had lots of kids but not as many as their children had.

What is CDR?

Crude Death rate, which measures the number of deaths per 1000 people per year

The falling of CDR as a country progresses through DTM reflects what?>

The improvements in healthcare (Vaccination, and access to disease treatments) and infrastructure (Sanitation and transportation) of a country

As conditions in a country improve economic security __________ and cultural norms _________ resulting in ________ childbirths

Increase, change, Fewer

Developing regions are different than developed regions in what way regarding population dynamics?

They have High CBR and High CDR compared to a developed areas low CBR and low CDR

What is a significant contributor to a regions CDR?

IMR (Infant Mortality rate)

What does IMR measure?

The percentage of children in a po[pulation who don’t survive their first year

To make up for losses from IMR parents do what? What other statistics does this affect?

They typically have larger families and a larger CBR to makeup for the lost child. This affects the overall CBR and TFR or the region

What are the 2 fundamental models geographers use for population fluctuations?>

NIR (Natural Increase Rate) and doubling time

How is NIR calculated?

CDR-CBR

What was India’s CDR in 2023?

7:1000

What was India's CBR n 2023?

16:1000

What was India's NIR in 2023?

(16/1000)-(7/1000)= 9/1000, 0.009, 9%

What is a limitation of NIR?>

It doesn't account for migration factors including migration laborers

The countries with highest NIR’s typically have the highest what?

TFR’s

List 4 countries which have both a high TFR and NIR and exemplify the trend that high NIR = high TFR

DRC, Madagascar, Iraq, Palestine

Why is NIR useful to have instead of relying just on CBR and CDR?

It captures a trend that the CBR and CDR don’t, thus he,ping understand population patterns

NIR allows for what other calculation?

Doubling time

What is doubling time?

The time it takes for the popu;lation to double in size

What is the doubling time formula dependent on?

The NIR

How is Doubling time related to NIR?

They are inversely related

How can we calculate future doubling time?

Projecting estimated NIR’s in the future based on its current trajectory

What is the formula for doubling time called? What is it?

Rule of 70; 70/NIR

What is the doubling time for a country with a NIR of 1%?

70 years

In 2023 what was India’s doubling time?

70/0.9=78 years

How long did it take for the world population to double from 0.25 billion to 0.5 billion?

697 years (837-1534)

What was the world population in 1534?

.5 billion people

What was the world population in 837?

0.25 billion

When did the doubling period which lasted 697 years end?

1534

How long did it take for the world population to double from 0.375 billion to 0.75 billion?

594 years (1143-1737)

What was the world population in 1737?

0.75 billion

What twas the world population in 1143?

0.375 billion

When did the doubling period which 594 years end?

1737

What was the world population in 1803?

1 billion

What was the world population in 1543?

0.5 billion

How long did it take for the world population to double from 0.5 billion to 1 billion?

260 years (1534-1803)

When did the 206 year doubling period end?

1803

What was the world population in 1928?

1 billion

How long did it take for the world population to double from 1 billion to 2 billion?

125 years (1803-1928)

When did the doubling period which lasted 125 years end?

1928

What was the world population in 1884?

1.5 billion

WHat was the world population in 1960?

3 billion

How long did it take for the world population to double from 1.5 billion to 3 billion?

76 years (1884-1960)

When did the doubling period which lasted 76 years end?

1960

What was the world population in 1975?

4 billion

How long did it take for the world population to double from 2 billion to 4 billion?

47 years (1928-1975)

When did the doubling period which lasted 47 years end?

1975

What was the worlds population 1987?

5 billion

What was the world population in 1950?

2.5 billion

How many years did it take for the world population to double from 2.5 billion to 5 billion?

37 years (1950-1987)

How many years did it take for the world population to double from 4 billion to 8 billion?

48 years (1975-2023)

What was the world population in 2023?

8 billion

When did the doubling period which lasted 37 years end?

1987

When did the doubling period which lasted 48 years end?

2023

How long is it projected to take for the world population to double from 5 billion to 10 billion?

70 years

What is the world population projected to be 2057?

10 billion

When is the doubling period which is expected t last 70 years projected to end?

2057

What was the world population in 1991?

5.4 billion

What is the world population projected to be in 2100?

10.8 billion

How long is it projected to take for the world population to double from 5.4 billion to 10.8 billion?

109 years

When is the doubling period which lasts 109 years projected to end?

2100

Describe the trend in doubling time over time

Declined gradually through the 16th, 17th and early 18th century, then rapidly decreased during the mid and late 18th centuries, before shifting to a more gradual decrease (faster than the initial decrease but not as rapid as the one preceding it) until 1987 when it is began increasing/is projected to increase gradually through the year 2100

NIR and doubling time are more accurate than what other measurements?

CBR and CDR alone

What arelimitations of NIR and doubling time?

They fail to account for the effects of migration on a population

Migration can cause significant fluctuations in population regardless of what?

Changing CBR and CDr’s

What is net migration?

Different between immigrants and emigrants during a set period (immigrants-emigrants = net migration)

What is net-in migration?

When the number of immigrants exceeds emigrants

What is net out migration?

When the number of immigrants is less than emigrants

What does a positive net migration mean?

Net in migration. More immigrants than emigrants

What does a negative net migration mean?

More emigrants than immigrants (Netout migration)

How often is net migration usually calculated?

Anually

Netmigration is expressed how?

1:1000 similar to CBR and CDR

How is the net migration rate converted from a number of people to the per thousand format?

(Net migration/Mid-year pop)*1000

How many immigrants did Australia have from 2024 to 2025?

568,000

How many emigrants did Australia have from 2024 to 2025?

263,000 people

What was Australias net migration from 2024 to 2025?

305,000

What was australia’s mid-year population at the end of June 2024?

27,000,000

What was the net migration rate per thousand people In Australia from 2024 to 2025?

11:1,000