Psychology Chapter 13: Judgements, Decisions and Reasoning

A collection of vocabulary terms and definitions covering the mechanisms of inductive and deductive reasoning, common heuristics and biases, and theories of decision-making as described in the lecture notes.

Reasoning

The process of drawing conclusions.

Decision

The process of choosing between two alternatives.

Inductive reasoning

The process of drawing general conclusions based on specific observations and evidence, resulting in conclusions that are probably but not definitely true.

Heuristic

A "rule of thumb" or shortcut that likely provides the correct answer or solution to a problem but is not foolproof.

Availability heuristic

The principle that events that come to mind most easily are judged as being more probable than events that are less easily recalled.

Illusory correlations

Occur when a relationship between $2$ events appears to exist but in reality there is no relationship, often occurring when two things are expected to be related.

Stereotypes

An over-simplified generalisation about a group or class of people that often focuses on the negative and can reinforce illusory correlations.

Representativeness heuristic

Making judgements based on how much an event resembles properties typically associated with a larger category.

Conjunction rule

States that the probability of a conjunction cannot be higher than the probability of a single event.

Law of large numbers

States that the larger number of individuals randomly drawn from a population, the more representative of that population the group will be.

Myside Bias

Evaluating evidence in a way that is biased towards your own opinions and attitudes, as demonstrated by Charles Lord ($1979$).

Confirmation Bias

A broad bias that occurs when people look up information that confirms their hypothesis and ignore information that refutes it.

Backfire effect

The phenomenon where an individual's viewpoint may be reinforced by receiving corrective facts that oppose their viewpoint.

Deductive reasoning

Reasoning that starts with broad principles to make logical predictions of specific cases to determine if a conclusion flows logically from statements.

Syllogism

Introduced by Aristotle, this consists of two broad statements followed by a third statement called the conclusion.

Categorical syllogisms

Syllogisms in which the premises and conclusions are statements that begin with "all", "no", or "some".

Validity (Syllogism)

Refers to the form of a syllogism being logical within its two premises; it does not necessarily consider truth.

Truth (Syllogism)

Refers to whether the premises and conclusion of a syllogism are factually correct; distinct from logical validity.

Belief bias

A tendency that can cause faulty reasoning to be accepted as valid, especially if the conclusion of the invalid syllogism is believable.

Mental model approach

Phillip Johnson-Laird's proposal that people imagine a specific situation in their mind to help determine the validity of syllogisms by looking for exceptions.

Conditional Syllogisms

Syllogisms that have two premises in an "if… then" setup, common in everyday life.

Modus Ponens

A type of conditional syllogism defined as "the way that affirms by affirming," represented as $p$ therefore $q$.

Modus Tollens

A type of conditional syllogism defined as "the way that denies by denying," represented in the text as "not $q$ therefore $p$".

Permission schema

A schema stating that if a person satisfies a specific condition, he or she gets to carry out the corresponding action.

Expected utility theory

A theory assuming people are rational and will make decisions resulting in the maximum outcomes that achieve their goals if all relevant information is available.

Utility

Outcomes that achieve a person's goals; economists often specify this in terms of monetary value.

Risk aversion

The tendency to avoid decisions that could lead to large negative consequences, often influenced by predicting that a loss will have greater impact than a gain of the same size.

Expected emotions

Emotions that people predict they will feel, which act as a major determinant of risk aversion.

Incidental emotions

Emotions that affect decisions but are not caused by the decision itself, such as a person's general disposition or the environment (e.g., a cloudy day).

Status quo bias

The tendency to do nothing when faced with making a decision, such as failing to sign an organ donor card in an "opt in" system.

Framing effect

The influence on decisions based on how choices are stated; choices framed as gains lead to risk-aversion, while those framed as losses lead to risk-taking.

Neuroeconomics

A field combining psychology, neuroscience, and economics to study brain activation related to decisions involving potential gains or losses.

Right anterior insula

An area of the brain associated with negative emotional states (pain, anger, etc.) that is activated more strongly when people reject unfair offers in the ultimatum game.

Dual systems approach

Daniel Kahneman's theory that there are two mental systems: System $1$ (fast, automatic, intuitive) and System $2$ (slower, deliberate, thoughtful).

System 1

An automatic, intuitive mental system that often "runs the show" and is linked to errors like belief bias and reliance on heuristics.

System 2

A slower, deliberate mental system that monitors information and intervenes to think logically and decrease errors.