MUN PSYCH 3120 - Chapter 10

How was risk originally viewed in psychology?

As a dichotomy - someone is either dangerous or not dangerous.

How is risk currently viewed?

As a range, where an individual can vary in degree of dangerousness.

What are the two components of the risk assessment process?

Prediction

Management

What does the prediction component of risk assessment focus on?

The probability that the offender will commit future violent acts and identifying risk factors.

What does the management component of risk assessment involve?

Interventions to manage or reduce the likelihood of future violence.

In which settings is risk assessment applied?

Civil settings

criminal settings

Risk assessment in civil settings

Civil commitment

Child protection

Immigration

School and labor

Duty to warn

Risk assessment in criminal settings

Pretrial

Sentencing

Prison management

Release

What was the significance of the Baxtrom v. Herald case?

It questioned the ability of mental health professionals to accurately predict violence, leading to the release of 300 mentally ill offenders.

What did the Dixon v. A.G. of the Commonwealth case reveal?

That 15% of released forensic patients were arrested or re-hospitalized for violent acts.

What was the outcome of the Barefoot v. Estelle case?

The court rejected the challenge against the death penalty, stating mental health professionals are 'not always wrong, only most of the time.'

What are the consequences of false positive predictions in risk assessment?

Denial of freedom for someone who will not commit a violent act.

What are the consequences of false negative predictions in risk assessment?

Allowing a violent offender to go free and potentially victimize others.

What are the three weaknesses of violence prevention research?

Limited risk factors

how violence is measured

how violence is defined.

What is unstructured clinical judgement in risk assessment?

A method involving professional discretion without standardized guidelines.

Can lead to illusory correlations

advantage of unstructured clinical judgement technique

it is flexible

disadvantage of unstructured clinical judgement technique

it is very subjective

illusory correlations

Perceiving a relationship between two variables when no relationship exists

What is actuarial prediction in risk assessment?

A method using risk factors selected based on their empirical association with specific outcomes.

do not vary from clinician to clinician or case to case

very standardized and there are pre-defined rules regarding how to make risk decisions

more accurate than clinical judgement

What is structured professional judgement?

An approach that combines predetermined risk factors with professional judgement.

risk factor

measurable feature of an individual that predicts a behavior of interest (i.e., violence)

What are static risk factors?

Risk factors that do not change over time or with treatment, e.g., age of first arrest.

What are dynamic risk factors?

Risk factors that fluctuate over time and are open to change, e.g., antisocial attitudes.

What are dispositional risk factors?

Factors that are specific to an individual and reflect their traits, tendencies, or style

demographic variables to dispositional risk factors

Age

Gender

personality characteristics to dispositional risk factors

Impulsivity

Psychopathy

Psychopathy

callous and unemotional interpersonal lifestyle characterized by grandiosity, manipulation, lack of remorse

Impulsivity

tendency to act on a whim

What are historical risk factors?

Events experienced in the past - both general and criminal

e.g., Past behavior

Age of onset of criminal behavior

Earlier start leads to higher risk of reoffending

Childhood history of maltreatment

Past supervision failure, escape, or institution maladjustment

What are clinical risk factors?

Symptoms of mental disorders that can contribute to violence, such as substance abuse (engage in violence to support habit) or mental illness (schizophrenia)

What are contextual risk factors?

Environmental aspects that can elevate the risk of violence, such as lack of social support and access to victims and weapons

What is the General Statistical Information on Recidivism (GSIR)?

Includes 15 static risk factors selected by statistically analyzing a sample of federal male offenders

Criminal history factors

Social background factors

Research indicates it is a good predictor of criminal behavior and general recidivism for male offenders

What is the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG)?

Uses 12 items to assess long-term risk for violent recidivism in offenders with mental disorders

E.g., alcohol problems, prior offences, childhood maladjustment

Research has shown that this instrument is a good predictor of violence

What is the Level of Service Inventory - Revised (LSI-R)?

Consists of 52 items representing static and dynamic risk factors (ten subscales)

Used to assess likelihood of general recidivism

Subscales indicate areas requiring intervention

Validated for use with male and female offenders and for predicting general recidivism

What is the HCR-20?

Designed to predict violent behavior in correctional and psychiatric samples

Evaluator conducts a systematic risk assessment using a list of risk factors

what 3 categories are used to list the 20 items of HCR-20

Historical

Clinical

Risk management

What is the Spousal Assault Risk Assessment (SARA)?

20 risk factors - 10

General violence and 10 spousal violence

What is the Rapid Risk Assessment for Sex Offense Recidivism (RRASOR)?

An instrument using four best predictors from research for assessing sex offense recidivism.

What current issues exist in risk assessment?

Lack of theory on why people offend

Protective factors

Use of scientific research

What about women?

Why do people stop offending? (desistance)