cognitive- decision

What is judgment?

The process of forming an opinion about something

What is reasoning?

The process of drawing conclusions from information

What is decision making?

The process of choosing between alternatives

What is inductive reasoning?

Drawing a general conclusion from specific observations, such as predicting Riverside will reach 100° this summer because it has every previous summer

How does inductive reasoning differ from deductive reasoning?

Inductive reasoning moves from specific observations to general conclusions, while deductive reasoning moves from general principles to specific conclusions

Why are conclusions from inductive reasoning uncertain?

Even if the observations are true, the conclusion is only probably true

What is deductive reasoning?

Determining whether a specific conclusion logically follows from general statements

Why are conclusions from deductive reasoning more certain?

If the premises are true and the logic is valid, the conclusion must be true

What makes an inductive argument stronger?

Representative observations, a larger number of observations, and higher-quality evidence

What is representativeness of observations?

How well observations represent all members of a category

Why does the number of observations matter in inductive reasoning?

Conclusions based on many observations are usually stronger than those based on only a few observations

Why does quality of evidence matter in inductive reasoning?

Scientific or reliable evidence leads to stronger conclusions than anecdotal evidence

What is confirmation bias?

The tendency to seek information that supports your beliefs while ignoring information that contradicts them

How does confirmation bias weaken inductive reasoning?

It causes people to focus on supporting evidence rather than testing whether their beliefs are wrong

What is myside bias?

The tendency to evaluate evidence in a way that favors your own opinions and attitudes

What is the backfire effect?

When evidence against a belief actually strengthens support for that belief

What are heuristics?

Mental shortcuts or rules of thumb used to make judgments quickly

What is the availability heuristic?

Judging an event as more likely because examples come to mind easily

How can the availability heuristic affect judgments?

People may overestimate rare but memorable events, such as tornadoes, because they are easier to recall

What is an illusory correlation?

Believing two events are related when little or no actual relationship exists

How are stereotypes related to illusory correlations?

Stereotypes often result from incorrectly assuming a relationship between a group and a behavior

What is the representativeness heuristic?

Judging category membership based on how similar something is to a typical category member

What is a base rate?

The actual frequency of a category in a population

How does the representativeness heuristic affect base-rate use?

People often ignore base rates and focus on how well someone matches a stereotype

What is the conjunction rule?

The probability of two events occurring together cannot be greater than the probability of either event occurring alone

What is the law of large numbers?

Larger samples are more likely to represent a population accurately than smaller samples

What is a syllogism?

A logical argument consisting of premises and a conclusion

What is a categorical syllogism?

A syllogism using statements that begin with all, no, or some

What is a conditional syllogism?

A syllogism in which the first premise follows an “if…then” format

What is a valid syllogism?

A syllogism in which the conclusion logically follows from the premises

Can a valid syllogism be false?

Yes, a syllogism can be logically valid even if one of its premises is false

What is an invalid syllogism?

A syllogism in which the conclusion does not logically follow from the premises

What is belief bias?

The tendency to judge a syllogism as valid because its conclusion seems believable

What is the falsification principle?

To test a rule, you must look for evidence that could prove it wrong

Why is the falsification principle important?

Looking for disconfirming evidence is a better test of a rule than looking for confirming evidence

What is expected utility theory?

The idea that people make decisions that maximize outcomes and help achieve their goals when they have all relevant information

What is the framing effect?

The tendency for decisions to change depending on how choices are presented

How does framing affect decision making?

People may choose differently even when options are objectively equivalent

What is status quo bias?

The tendency to do nothing or stick with the default option when making decisions

What is risk aversion?

The tendency to avoid taking risks

What is the dual systems approach?

The idea that decision making may involve two different systems, one fast and intuitive and one slower and more deliberate

Why can decision making be biased?

Choices can be influenced by unrelated factors, emotions, and mental shortcuts rather than logic alone