models and population dynamics

DTM, ETM, Malthusian, Cornucopians

all 5 stages of DTM

1) high stationary stage

2) early expanding stage

3) late expanding stage

4) low stationary stage

5) declining stage

DTM stands for

demographic transition model

population of yemen

41,773,877

describe the CBR and CDR of stage 3

declining CBR and low CDR

describe what occurs socially and economically in stage 3

1) rapid urbanization & industrialization

2) functional regions create centers of economic activity —> migration

3) higher rates of edu

4) larger access to contraceptives

5) more women in workforce

6) large, stable labor pool —> boost econ

3 stage 3 countries

jamaica, Mexico, south africa

what do population pyramids look like for stage 3

pear shaped

jamaica population in 2025

2,837,077

describe CBR and CDR in stage 4

low CBR and CDR

four countries in stage 4

us, Canada, singapore, other European countries

what is the NIR in stage four

nearly zero

describe the what occurs in stage 4

1) populations get older

2) raise smaller families

3) improved healthcare

4) economic security

5) greater life expectancy

6) migration plays major role in shaping population sizes

3 countries in 5th stage

germany, Russia, japan

describe CBR and CDR in 5th stage

extremely low CBR, increasing CDR

what happens to NIR in stage 5

becomes negative

describe the negative feedback loop that occurs in stage 5

smaller younger generations —> fewer young adult parents —> fewer children in the future

shape of stage 5 population pyrmaids

inverted triangle

pronatalist policies incetivise families by (3)

tax rebates, maternal leave, subsidized childcare

germany population

85,075,074

compare DTM, ETM, and Malthusian theory in how they attribute the decrease in population

DTM: attributes it to declining birth rates

ETN: attributes it to disease-related factors

Malthusian theory: attributes it to food scarcity

ETM focuses on changes in what 3 things

medicine, infastructure, and eocnomies

list 5 stages of ETM

1) pestilence and famine

2) receding pandemic

3) degenerative and human-created diseases

4) delayed degenerative diseases

5) reemerging infectious diseases

stage 1 of ETM death rates and causes

high death rates caused by infesctious and usually preventable diseases

stage 1 ETM diseases

tuberculoisis, malaria, plague

IMR and life expectancy in stage 1 ETM

high IMR and low life expectancy

social and political situation in stage 1 ETM

poor living conditions, little political and social upheavels

top 3 causes of death in order

1) cardiovascular diseases

2) cancer

3) respiratory disease

least likely cause of death

natural disasters

since what century has no country been stage 1 ETM

since 19th

stage 2 ETM morality

morality from infectious diseases fall

social and economic situation of stage 2 ETM

1) improved social and political stability

2) larger access to healthcare, basic sanitation, water, food

IMR and life expectancy in stage 2 ETM

IMR drops, life expectancy icnreases

regions in stage 2 ETM

sub-saharan Africa, middle east

countries in stage 3 ETM

phillipines, turkey, egypt

countries in stage 4 ETM

canada, south korea, germany

biggest cause of death in stage 3 ETM

age-related diseases

examples of age related diseases (3)

dementia, heart disease, cancers

what does stage 3 ETM show about life expectancy

it has increased because people are able to reach ages where they contract chronic illnesses

how do stage 3 countries combat these diseases in ETM

they focus on lifestyle factors (diet, exercise, smoking, drinking)

describe stage 4 ETM

people are able to live with the age-related diseases due to breakthroughs in healthcare —> longer lifespans

CDR in stage 5 ETM

increases again

reasons for increase in CDR in stage 5 ETM (3)

globalization, porvery, disease adaptation

what do overpopulated urban environments put at risk

reduced hygiene, spread of diseases

examples of diseases spread due to globalization

covid and antibiotic resistant bacteria

thomas malthus

british economist who pioneered the malthusian theory

malthusian theory

population grows exponentially while food supply grows linearly so food scarcity will create natural checks against population growth

what are the two checks noted by malthus and list examples

positive checks: wars, famines, natural disasters, plagues

preventative checks: contraceptives, marry/start families later, celibacy

mathus preferred what checks

preventative

populations exploded between what two centuries

19th and 20th

what did Malthus not anticipate (2)

1) industrial revolution and green revolution which revolutionized technology to help supply the population growth

2) populations naturally decline on their own as shown thru DTM and ETM when they reach the most advanced stages of development

green revolution

rapid agricultural progress that led to the diffusion of new tech and methods for increasing crop output

when did green revolution occur

mid-20th

green revolution inventions

fertilizers, pesticides, high-yield crops, irrigation systems

green revolution mostly affected what continent countries

asia and americas

neo-malthusian movement

population-control program and ensure resource availability (food + natural + energy resources)

when did neo-malthusian occur

20th

china’s one-child policy years

1979-2015

india’s sterilization years

beginning 1950s - 1977

name a neo-malthusian

paul ehrlich

paul’s book name, yr, what’s it about

the population bomb (1968); argued overpopulation underscored society’s most pressing economic and environmental risks

opps of neo-malthusians

cornucopians

cornucopians believe in

environemtal possibilism; technological profess and ingenuity will overcome the resource constraints of overpopulation

cornucopian supporter

esther boserup

boserup ethnicity and job

danish economist

cornucorpians believe what two things are unlimited

human ingenuity and carrying capacity

pros and cons of green rev

pros: massive increases in agri output

cons: long-term consequences such as pollution, social inequalities, destruction of natural resources

social inequalities caused by green rev

global south generates majority of crops but are forced to work in poor conditions