power and developments

How has the EU promoted international norms in Ukraine

Prior to the invasion, it provided extensive financial aid through its association agreement that encouraged judicial reforms and anti corruption measures so they aligned more with EU standards

Hard power failing to uphold norms and creating resentment

US intervention is Afghanistan after 9/11 created opposition against them

Hard power after soft fails to uphold norms or diplomacy

US, UK and EU gave $60B in 2022 to Ukraine, without this it may not have been able to hold of Russian advances for 2 years

Hard power needed after diplomacy failed and the world order is threatened

iran’s advancement of the nuclear programme threatened the NPT, Obama and Biden tried diplomatic solutions but Trump took hard power action as their actions threatened the global order

Soft power allowing states to lead global initiatives

Saudi Arabia has been able to use its strength as an oil producer to have friendly relations between both Russia and China and the West. This meant that it held peace talks between the US, Ukraine and Russia in 2025

Soft power enhancing global reputations

The reach of Hollywood has spread American values and shaped how people view America, making them more receptive to policies and ideals

Hard power damaging a state's reputation and eroding its legitimacy

> Western interventions have been accused of imperialism

>Israeli state has had its legitimacy eroded during the Israel-Gaza War

States using hard power as not concerned by morality

2022 Russian invasion -> acted in immediate interest

Example of the immediate effect of hard power

2026 Iran invasion where Supreme leader was killed, forcing an immediate regime change

Hard power losing public support

2003 Iraq invasion cost US 2T and had numerous civilian casualties, causing public fatigue that contributed to the democrats winning in 2008

Hard power undermining initial objective

2026 Iran attack - Trump promised peace 37 times

Soft power enhancing significance whilst being popular with civilians

SK used cultural exports with Kpop to enhance soft power, increasing significance and boosting economic growth

Hard power example that deters and provides security

NATOs collective defense policy provides a security buffer that soft power cannot

Hard power being important to reach global supremacy

Trump's threats to Greenland whilst China is limited due to its lack of hard power exertion

China's GDP

$20T

Why is China the World’s manufacturing hub

30% of industrial output

Example of China dominating geopolitically important sectors

China holds 90% of REEs

Example of China causing rifts in western powers

Hungary has become a large supporter of China, causing rifts in a key economic competitor

Challanges to China’s ability to become a super power

>very high debt of 280% 

>Ageing population

->Both discourage investment

USAs structural influence

The dollar is the world’s reserve currency

How many top brands are in the US?

7/10

What is Good about China’s military

second most powerful military with a defense budget of $277B

How has China used its military to exert influence

Island and military base building in the South China  Sea to gain control, is a strategic shipping route

China’s Military in comparison to US

⅓ of US’s defense budget

Why can China’s Military not have the Global presence the US does

5 overseas bases, US has 700

China’s Strong allies and an example

Strong allies with Russia, NK and Iran that support its economic growth e.g. Iran exports 90% of its oil to China

Example of China’s belt and road initiative & AIIB  expanding its influence

Sri Lankan Hambantota Port -China has an 85% stake

US Allies that China lacks

NATO has 30 members and holds agreements with key Indo Pacific players like Japan and Australia

What is a non democratic state

Where power lies in the hands of a small handful rather than the people. Many of these states face domestic instability that can spill over

Example of a non democratic state’s instability spilling over

Arab Spring 2011

Non democratic state power vacuums that challenge global security

fall of the regime in Libya led to a power vacuum that sparked conflict amongst rival factions, fuelling arms trafficking and migrant flows across North Africa and Europe, challenging global security

What is a failed state?

When a government has lost the ability to perform basic functions leading to a breakdown of order and chronic violence without any accountability

What is an example of a failed state

Somalia 1991 led to piracy flourishing off the Somali coast disrupting international shipping routes, prompting a UK and US response and allowed for ISIS to expand their influence across other parts of Africa

An example of a failed state causing conflict in other states

2023 Sudan led to Chad receiving an influx of refugees that intensified local conflict over scarce resources

Example of a rouge state

Nk and its pursuit of WMDS

Example of the growth in rogue states

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and support for Assad regime in Syria

Example of a rogue state challenging US hegemony

Iran - sponsors many militant groups such as Hezbollah or Hamas across the middle east and has prompted a drawn out US response to prevent it from accessing WMDs

Example of Democratic states being peaceful

Between 1950 and 1990, democratic states were involved in only 12% of all international conflicts

Example of instability being created in the name of democracy

Afghanistan in 2001 and Iraq in 2003, over 200,000 were killed and the Taliban and Isis took power

Example of Democratic state supporting one that causes instability and violence

USA sending arms to Israel, despite over 40,000 deaths

Why do semi democratic states pose less of a risk

Champion non intervention e.g. China

Example of a semidemocratic state threatening global peace

Turkey has become increasingly authoritarian with electoral manipulation and censorship despite being a key ally of the west in the Middle East. It has been willing to build ties with Russia

Semi Democratic state in EU

Hungary’s shift to a semidemocratic state has undermined the EU and its global legitimacy

Example of a Non democratic state undermining democratic states

Russian Interference in the 2016 US election

Example of a Non democratic state trying to gain leverage in the west

China collaborating with Hungary causing a rift in the EU