chapter 10- risk assessment

risk is viewed as a \_____ / probability estimate

range

civil settings

* civil commitment
* child protection
* immigration laws
* school and labour regulations
* duty to warn

in criminal settings when are risk assessments conducted

conducted at major decision points :

* pretrial
* sentencing
* release

in criminal settings when does public safety outweigh solicitor-client privilege

when there is clear, serious, and imminent danger

types of outcomes when: predicted not to re-offend

1. doesn't reoffend= true negative= correct prediction
2. reoffends= false negative= incorrect prediction

types of outcomes when : predicted to reoffend

1. doesn't reoffend= false positive= incorrect prediction
2. reoffends= true positive= correct prediction

base rate problem

the percentage of people in a population who commit a criminal act

what can low base rates lead to

increase false positive decisions

what did the baxstrom and Dixon studies show

* few people reoffend
* showed the inaccuracy of risk assessment predictions

aspects of unstructured clinical judgment

* professional discretion and lack of guidelines
* subjective= no specific risk factors & no rules about how risk decisions should be made
* high variability between clinicians and cases

actuarial prediction

* based on studies of offenders
* more accurate than unstructured clinical judgement
* cannot update risk based on behavioural change

structured professional judgment

* guided by predetermined risk factors acquired through research
* accuracy is still unclear
* judgement of risk level is based on professional judgement

what is a risk factor

measurable feature that predicts the behaviour of interest

what are the 2 types of risk factors

* static
* dynamic

4 types of risk factor categories

* historical
* dispositional
* clinical
* contextual

historical risk factor

childhood - first time they used drugs / first time they were arrested

dispositional risk factor

* male/female
* traits
* criminal attitudes

clinical risk factor

* substance use
* mental health

contextual risk factor

* the environment
* access to weapons
* proximity to victims
* do they have a job?
* are they in a stable relationship?

two basic findings

* factors apply across all types of recidivism
* factors apply regardless of mental disorder

female offender differences In criminality:

* engage in less crime
* arrested for different crimes
* higher rates of conditional release
* childhood victimization is more prevalent
* mental disorders are more prevalent
* more recidivism related to substance abuse

gender specific factors for female offenders

* history of self injury
* self esteem problems

protective factors

* mitigate or reduce likelihood of negative outcomes such as aggression or delinquency
* include: prosocial involvement, strong social supports, employment stability, positive social orientation, intelligence, strong attachment

2 types of moderating effects

* categorical: gender, ethnicity
* continuous: number of treatment sessions

mediating effects

* clinical interventions
* parental violence
* intervening variables that initiate risk

issues with instruments

* only provide probability statements about group data
* evaluators don't agree on categorization of risk levels
* measures might not generalize to other countries
* language used can be interpreted differently by decision makers ( judges, jurors)

desistance from Crime

* process of ceasing to engage in criminal behaviour
* factors include: age, employment, and marital relations