Contentious Politics, Protest Dynamics, and Social Media Influence in Political Movements

What is contentious politics?

Collective political action that takes place outside ordinary institutional routines.

What are examples of contentious politics?

Vigils, protests, strikes, riots.

What is the focus of today's lecture?

Protests and their relation to other forms of contentious politics.

What makes contentious politics different from elections?

The cost of participation is higher, including risks of crackdowns and social sanctions.

What happened in Venezuela's 2004 referendum?

Hugo Chavez won with 60%, and those who signed the recall petition were punished.

What are the challenges of attending protests?

Higher costs, fewer rules, and unclear benefits.

What is a collective action problem in protests?

Individual behavior is connected to the actions of others, leading to free-riding.

What is pivotality in the context of protests?

A person's action is determinant for the protest's outcome.

How does pivotality depend on others' participation?

Pivotality decreases as the likelihood of others participating increases.

What is the threshold for success in protests?

It varies; for example, Q=1 means one person is needed, while Q=3 means everyone must participate.

What is the relationship between pivotality and participation when Q=3?

Pivotality increases as others are less likely to participate.

What does Q=2 represent in protest dynamics?

It's a complex case where pivotality can vary based on the participation of others.

What influences whether protest behavior exhibits strategic complementarity or substitution?

The actions of others and the fraction of citizens needed for success.

What is the empirical evidence from Hong Kong regarding protests?

Protests surged in 2014 due to encroachment by China, leading to annual marches.

What was the focus of the study by Cantoni et al. (2019)?

How beliefs about the participation of others influence individual decisions to participate.

What is the research design for studying protest attendance?

Collect information about original plans to attend, share information with a random subset of study participants, measure actual protest attendance.

What ethical questions arise in studies involving protests?

What if a study participant dies while attending the protest?

What was the payment for students participating in the study?

Students were paid $30 to participate.

How does information treatment affect beliefs about protest attendance?

Information treatment affects the individual decision to attend the protest.

What is the effect of prior beliefs on protest attendance after receiving information?

High prior beliefs increase turnout; low prior beliefs lower turnout.

How can we rationalize the effect of information on attendance?

High prior beliefs reveal fewer attendees, making one more willing to attend; low prior beliefs reveal more attendees, making one less willing to attend.

What does participation in Hong Kong protests exhibit?

Strategic substitution.

How do protests usually start?

Protest movements build up over time but need at least a few people to get started.

Who was Mohamed Bouazizi?

A Tunisian street vendor who set himself on fire to protest police mistreatment, triggering protests in Tunisia.

What event did Bouazizi's self-immolation lead to?

Protest and regime change in Tunisia.

What was the 'No more FARC' protest?

A protest in Colombia on February 4th, started as a Facebook group against the FARC insurgency.

What did Fergusson and Molina (2020) study?

The effect of social media on protests.

What was the research question regarding social media and protests?

Does having easier access to social media influence protesting?

What was the key assumption in the Facebook roll-out study?

The roll-out is unrelated to local political conditions.

What was observed after the launch of Facebook in a language?

The number of protests increased in areas where that language is spoken.

What are the requirements for protests in different political regimes?

Grievances are high in non-democracies; freedom, time, and effort are high in democracies.

Why does Facebook lead to more protests?

Social media facilitates coordination and provides information.

What effect does the roll-out of 3G internet have on political attitudes?

Greater penetration is associated with lower political satisfaction in countries where the internet is not censored.

What are some examples of contentious politics?

Black Lives Matter, January 6th, Arab Spring.

What collective action problems are discussed in relation to protests?

Public goods vs coordination.

What is difficult to disentangle in the effects of social media on protests?

The contribution of information vs coordination.

What is the free-rider problem?

The free-rider problem arises in the context of public good provision, where people cannot be prevented from enjoying public goods even if they don't contribute, leading to underprovision. Example: public radio.

What is the main action countries commit to under the Paris Agreement?

Countries commit to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases.

Is the fourth voter pivotal if the first three have voted Yes in a five-member committee?

No, the fourth voter is not pivotal because a supermajority of 60% has already been achieved.

What was the effect of female enfranchisement on child mortality according to Grant Miller's study?

It led to a significant reduction in child mortality due to changes in the median voter and increased attention to public health.

What defines a public good?

A public good is non-excludable and non-rival. Example: public radio.

What defines a common resource?

A common resource is non-excludable and rival. Example: a busy highway during rush hour.

What defines a club good?

A club good is excludable and non-rival. Example: Netflix.

What was Thomas Schelling's main insight?

Humans can coordinate in the absence of communication by relying on 'focal points'. Example: meeting at a familiar location like White Hall 208.

What are the two Nash equilibria in the coordination problem mentioned?

(Down, Left) and (Up, Right).

What is a coordination trap?

A coordination trap occurs when multiple equilibria exist, but the chosen one yields lower payoffs than an alternative. Example: the persistence of the QWERTY keyboard layout despite better alternatives.

What is strategic substitution in the context of taking out the trash?

If you think someone else will take out the trash, you feel less inclined to do it yourself.

What is strategic complementarity in signing a petition?

You are more inclined to sign the petition if you think everyone else is doing so.

What is strategic substitution in buying a joint mother's day present?

If you think one of your siblings will buy the present, you feel less inclined to do it yourself.

What are two mechanisms by which Facebook may lead to more protests?

1. It facilitates coordination for organizing protests. 2. It provides information that can influence people's views and willingness to protest.