INTS Test 2

What is interstate war?

Militarized conflict between two states over a territory, using their respective national forces

• Ex: Israel and Lebanon, US and Iran

What are internationalized intrastate wars?

Wars within one state with multiple external players

• Ex: Syrian Civil War

  • Russia and Iran involvement

To what could we attribute the fact that interstate war is trending down?

War on the Rocks piece rejects these factors

• Nuclear deterrence

• International institutions / systems

  • 3rd party monitors such as the UN and NATO

    • Goal of orgs. is to maintain peace

• Democratic peace theory

  • Have to persuade public to go to war

  • Slower mobilization, greater consensus needed than in authoritarian state

• Globalization

  • Has provided alternative solutions short of armed warfare

    • EX: Trade “war,” economic sanctions

• Cultural aversion post-WW2

  • Desire to avoid devastation of war

What are identified as the greatest risk factors in the future of interstate war (from a US perspective)?

RAND Piece:

• Global depression / increasing inequality

• Revisionist China

  • Growing territorial ambitions in SCS and Taiwan

• Environmental catastrophe

  • Climate Change

    • Competition for resources and greater migration of people

      • Refugee crises —> War

• State decay

  • Weak states

    • Influence of individuals increases in relation to the state

  • Disruptive tech (AI)

    • Can cause unemployment (bare branches) and cause domestic instability

Additional Risk Factors not mentioned

• Decline of international institutions

• Irrational heads of state

• Nuclear proliferation

• Aggressive United States

  • “Forward posture” with military bases around the world

    • Deterrence vs. Provocation

  • Makes military conflict an easier decision, since bases and presence already established

Why has interstate war trended down?

• Changing incentives and disincentives

  • Nuclear War

  • International trade and economic integration

  • Democratic peace theory

• Other tools to compete and signal

  • Coercive economic diplomacy (economic sanctions, trade war)

    • Less effective for US now

      • Potential overuse of sanctions

        • Russia and China allowing other countries to get around sanctions

          • Move from the US dollar

  • Indirect war (proxy; military assistance)

• Gray Zone Warfare (Russia and EU)

  • Cyberattacks

  • Election interference / misinformation

• Military deterrence: forward posture

  • Deterrent or provocation

Overarching themes about decrease of interstate war

• Higher stakes for conflict

• More ways to resolve conflict

  • Easier to substitute nonviolent contests for military disputes

• More ways to demonstrate resolve

  • More opportunities to signal

• More interdependence means more knowledge

What is an insurgency?

An organized movement aimed at the overthrow of a constituted government through the use of subversion and armed conflict

What is terrorism?

Terrorism is a tactic.

A method of striking fear into a population to achieve a political, religious, or ideological objective.

• Terrorist groups and insurgents can engage in terrorist acts.

  • Do not have to be a designated terrorist group to engage in terrorist acts.

What are examples of terrorist acts?

• Assassinations

• Kidnappings

• Explosives and dirty bombs

• Chemical agents

• Biological weapons

• Weaponizing airplanes

What are characteristics of terrorist groups?

• Typically marginalized from society

• Objectives tend to not align with the population as a whole

  • Contrast to insurgencies

    • Insurgents’ aims need to be aligned so they can hide in the nurturing sea like Mao said

What are terrorists goals?

• Weaken political system

• Disrupt social contract between people and government

• Challenge authority

• Change the way that people think

What are characteristics of insurgencies?

• Use various violent tactics as a means of political opposition

• Objective to overthrow the government via subversion and conflict

• Seek to align aims with public interest to gain popular support

  • Mao

• Popular support grows insurgency and makes it hard to root out

  • Infiltration by gov. eases defeat

• Typically last about 10 years — “defeated” insurgencies can splinter or hiberante

• Often depend on outside state support / sponsorship

  • Government relies on taxes, insurgents need funding

  • Contrast to this rule is Al-Shabab

What are some terrorist groups currently identified by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence?

Hezbollah, Hamas, Al-Shabab, Afghan Taliban, ISIL

What are counter-terrorism vs. counter-insurgency strategies?

• Counter-terrorism: Cut off resources, ‘whittle down’ ranks with sanctions, arrests, assasinations

• Counter-insurgency: Defeat insurgent strategy— isolate from population; address grievances that give rise to insurgents (political inclusion?); information from population is critical to success

Why is the labelling of insurgent / terrorist groups important?

The labels determine governmental response to the crisis.

• Foreign terrorist organizations

  • Violation of law to fund / financially support these groups

  • Also many financial tools available to disrupt these organizations once determined

    • Frozen bank accounts, non-profits, etc.

  • Politically difficult to unable terrorist group

• State sponsors of terrorism

  • Intense US sanctions

• Negotiation process

  • “America will never make concessions to terrorists”

  • No negotiation, no middle-ground

  • American public support

What are the root causes of insurgency and terrorism?

Ineffective governments

• Corruption

• Non-inclusive government

• Wealth inequality

• Lack of service provision

• Insecurity

Non-state actors rarely turn violent if the government is fair and effective.

What is the best solution to prevent insurgency / terrorism?

Government service provision is the best solution, but it is difficult to achieve without political will.

• Programs are most effective when they are small and well-developed

  • Evidence of government improvement

  • Not helpful when a foreign government is responsible

    • Does not increase trust / confidence in government

There are no military solutions to poor governance.

What are examples of recent counter-insurgency success and failure?

Success:

• Northern Ireland

  • Addressed underlying concerns

• Vietnam War

  • US approach was war

    • No other attempts to address grievances

What is a civil war?

Armed conflict taking place within the boundaries of a recognized sovereign entity between parties subject to a common authority at the onset of hostilities.

• one country, two parties initials subject to same authority (government)

What are the variations of Civil War

• Fight over who controls government (state apparatus) or what principles should govern the state

  • Rebellions, revolutions, insurrection, coups

• Fight over who is subject to the authority of the state

  • Secession, irredentism, autonomy

Key concepts: who has a legitimate right to govern whom.

• This depends on the underlying principles of sovereignty and nationalism

  • Sovereignty: legal recognition of statehood; legitimated by popular will of the people

  • Nationalism: normative belief that governmental jurisdictions align with boundaries of national identification

What are some stats about the commonality and persistence of Civil war?

• About 30% of states have fought a civil war in the past 50 years (more than 1000 deaths)

• About 50% have experienced civil conflict

  • Civil conflict is between 25-1000 battle deaths

• Average duration is about 10 years (Walter)

  • Know that more factions can make conflict last longer

• Peak in 1990s — 51 civil wars in 1992

  • End of the Cold War and Fall of Soviet Union

Why do Civil Wars start?

Barbara Walter says for two reasons

• Anocracy — democracy in name only

  • No voice in politics

  • Have vision of democracy

  • Makes people feel that concerns cannot be addressed politically

    • Have to seek alternative measures

• Ethnic entrepreneurs — historically dominant group that has lost or fears losing power / property and play on an exaggerated “ethnic” distinction

  • Perception of being under threat

  • Exaggerated fear that alters cost-benefit analysis

How does political violence relate to Civil War?

Political violence could be interpreted as an individual decision to commit Civil War.

What are the mechanisms connecting group resentment and civil war / conflict?

• Insurrection / insurgency: attempted takeover of the apparatus of the state

• Secession: separate from host and create a new state

  • Not to be confused with war of succession

• Irredentism: separate from host and join another state

  • Can be due to focus on resources

What are some characteristics of the Syrian Civil War (2011)?

• Many different players / actors

• Discontent with the government

• Protests about Assad’s removal

  • Violent repression

• Reliance on foreign assistance

  • lost support from Russia / Iran

• Former group designated as terrorist organization rises to power

What are some characteristics of the Yugoslavian Civil War in 1990s?

• War focused on secession and creation of separate, uni-ethnic states

• Bosnia was multiethnic and a central battleground

• Idea of “Balkanizing”

  • Making smaller, more uniform states

What are some lessons from secession?

• Often violent and costly

• Foreign intervention can be critical

• No consistent international norm for recognition

What are characteristics of internationalized intrastate wars?

• External / International actors support local ones to pursue objectives violently

  • Increases the saliency of ethnic identification and polarization

• Question about whether involvement is intervention or delegated interstate war

  • Intervention

    • Civil war has domestic roots; foreign governments are tangential to one and become entangled once fighting begins

      • Ex: Vietnam?

  • Delegation

    • External actors play important role in shaping the insurgency and are crucial to organization’s structure and viability

      • Ex: US in Nicaragua (1986), UAE in Sudan

What is Peacekeeping?

• Deployment of international personnel to help maintain peace and security in the aftermath of war

  • Military and civil personnel, usually police (civilians and formed units)

  • Range from observers to lightly armed to combat ready

  • Many include substantial civilian components

  • Multilateral in nature — usually organized by UN or other international and regional organizations

What is the peacekept?

Decision makers within the government and other belligerent parties who decide whether or not to return to war.

What is the international community?

• Refers to interested states and international or regional organizations potentially involved in maintaining peace

What are the 3 Broad Principles of peacekeeping?

• Consent of the parties

  • two or more conflicting sides that want to stop fighting

• Impartiality

  • Not totally neutral, committed to side supporting peace

• Non-use of force except in self-defense or in defense of the mandate

  • Protection of civilians

    • Sierra Leone

What are the two broad types of Peacekeeping missions?

Chapter VI and Chapter VII

• Chapter VI refers to the pacific settlement of disputes

• Chapter VII authorizes use of force against threats to international peace and security

What are the subtypes of missions under Chapter VI?

• Observer mission

  • Deployments of military and / or civilian observers to monitor ceasefires, withdrawal or cantonment of troops, or other terms of agreement

• Traditional / inter-personal mission

  • Deployments of lightly armed troops. Monitor / report but also separate forces by positioning as buffer zone or help to demobilize and disarm military factions.

What are the subtypes of missions under Chapter VII?

• Multidimensional mission

  • Includes military, police, and civilian capacity to help support peace agreement implementation, governance, rule of law and protection of civilians, support to elections, human rights, institution building.

• Peace enforcement mission

  • Substantial military force to provide security, ensure compliance with cease-fire. “All means necessary” mandated to use force beyond self-defense to compel.

What are basics of peacekeeping?

United Nation’s most visible and important tool.

• Address conflicts and crises that pose a threat to international peace and security.

  • Stages: Peacemaking, Peace Enforcement, and Peacebuilding

  • Goals: Increase stability, support political resolutions to conflicts, protect civilians, strengthen governance and rule of law, and support human rights, among other objectives

• Civilian-led operations:

  • Includes military and police contingents, engineers, and medical hospitals, as well as civilian experts, diplomats, political officers

  • Operate in austere conditions with little infrastructure in fragile states

  • Rely on capacities from member states, who are reimbursed for their participation

How has peacekeeping developed post-Cold War?

• 1989

  • Cold War Peacekeeping

  • Prior to 1989, mostly interstate conflict, borer disputes, observer missions.

• 1990s

  • Post-Cold War peacekeeping

  • Fails to address intrastate conflicts

    • Haiti, Sierra Leone, Rwanda, Balkans

  • Peacekeeping not designed for these violent conflicts.

• Late 1990s

  • Military interventions and peace enforcement missions

  • UN Missions follow with Chapter VII

    • DRC, East Timor, Kosovo, Balkans, Sierra Leone

  • More authoritative, intrusive, mandates change

• 2000s

  • Big change in two directions

    • Role of Law and Protection of Civilians

  • Governance is needed for security

  • More human rights, governance efforts, mission-wide strategies

• 2010s

  • Importance of nation building and conflict prevention

  • Christmas tree mandates

  • Return to political basis

  • More contested

What is the peacekeeping operations procedure?

• Conflict worsens or comes to an end —> requests UN aid

• Technical assessment mission then presents to UNSC

• Adopt UN Security Council Resolution

• UN Secretary General appoints Special Rep, head of mission (Force Commander and Police Commander), and contributions

Why does peacekeeping fail?

Best chances for success where political will for peace is strong, but peacekeepers typically sent to regions where help is most needed.

Challenges for maintaining peace after civil conflicts

• Aggression

  • Pause in fighting may provide opportunity to seize chance to defeat rival

  • Demobilization and disarmament process may reveal one side’s weakness or make one side particularly vulnerable

• Fear and mistrust

  • Often leads both sides to hedge and delay disarmament and demobilization

• Accident / Spoilers

  • Can escalate quickly, undisciplined armies or hardliners who oppose peace can prove risky

• Political exclusion

  • Former combatants may return to war if they feel they are losing the peace politically or if power-sharing agreement not implemented

How does Peacekeeping work?

• Change incentives

  • Military deterrence / groups and government

  • Protect civilians (enforcement)

  • Monitor, deter attack

  • Condition aid and recognize compliance

  • Influence domestic public opinion

  • Provide peace dividend (jobs, public works, pay)

• Reduce uncertainty

  • Monitor compliance

  • Facilitate communication

  • Allow parties to signal intentions for peace

  • Condition aid and recognize compliance

• Reduce Insecurity

  • Deter rogue groups

  • Ease communication

  • provide low-level meditation

  • Provide alternative to escalation in response to violation

  • Protect civilians

• Build Rule of Law

  • Monitor and/or train security sectors

  • Monitor and/or run election process

  • transform military groups into political organizations

  • Provide neutral interim administration or admin support

Peacekeeping challenges

Challenges peacekeeping faces

• Capacity gaps

• Protecting civilians

• Host state consent and cooperation

• Support to political solutions

• Mandates ambiguous

• Poor strategic coordination among actors, poor interoperability of forces

• Perennially understaffed, underfunded, under-equipped

• Insufficient local ownership

• Government resistance

But studies show that peacekeeping works: Peace operations significantly increase the chances that a peace will hold

How to improve peacekeeping?"

• Strengthen political peace

• Set clear mandates with well-defined paths to deliver durable, stable outcomes

• Support targeted missions tailored to relevant political and security environment

• Strengthen accountability by assessing mission effectiveness

• Prioritize protection of civilians

• Enhance US Support, leadership, and participation in peacekeeping missions

What are the ways that wars end?

• Decisive military victory

  • Destruction and occupation / absorption

  • Unconditional surrender

  • Conditional surrender / negotiated settlement

• Ceasefire and negotiated settlement

  • Treaty of Versailles (WW1)

  • Dayton Peace Accords (Bosnia)

• Stalemate

  • US/UK occupation of Iraq 2003-2011

  • Nagorno Karabkh (until 2023)

  • N/S Korea armed truce (ongoing since 1953)

What are recent trends in the ways that war has ended?

Since the 1990s, negotiated settlement has become a more favored end to conflicts.

• What can we attribute this to?

  • End of Cold War

    • More incentives for outside actors to care and international norms are changing

What are trends during and post-Cold War about how conflicts have ended?

• During the Cold War — most ended with complete defeat

  • Norm (by superpowers) that wars should end this way

• After the Cold War — most ended in negotiated settlement

  • Norm (by democratic unipolarity) that wars should end this way as path to democratization

• Since 9/11 most civil wars end in negotiated settlement, except when a terrorist group is involved

  • Countervailing norm not to negotiate with terrorists — new norm of “stabilization”

What is mediation?

An intervention, accepted by parties to a dispute, whose aim is to help reach a settlement.

• Mediation has become more widespread / common over last 60 years

• Different than arbitration

  • Arbitrator has more power, parties forced to comply with decision

Who are the actors involved in Mediation?

• Individual states

• International organizations

• Influential individuals

  • Bill Clinton

Where is mediators influence derived from?

• Power (ex: US, Russia, strong regional leaders)

• Legitimacy (ex. African mediators for African conflicts)

  • African mediators tend to emphasize state sovereignty

    • Same respect not perhaps shared by non-African states, especially given the history of imperialism and colonization

• Information / trust

  • How well the mediator knows at least one party

Do mediators need to be impartial? Why or why not?

• No, mediators do not need to be impartial. Partiality can help to put pressure on one side to negotiate

  • Ex: US and Israel

    • US could help put pressure on Israel to negotiate

What are the three strategies of mediation?

• Communication

  • Conduits of information, translators of messages

  • Ex: Qatar allowing terrorist groups to communicate

• Formulator

  • Entering substance of the negotiation; being persuasive and suggesting solutions

  • Ex: International institutions (UN, AU)

• Manipulator

  • Actively involved in manipulating negotiation; adding resources, withdrawing resources to persuade

  • Typically large powers

    • Have to possess resources to alter cost-benefit analysis

  • UN formal condemnations are also in this category

    • Reliant on signatures from influential powers

Why would a country agree to mediation?

Mediation relies on the consent of the mediated.

• Parties see it as advancing their interests (rational actor)

• Offers hope for settlements when direct negotiations don’t

• Accepted when rejecting mediation may cause more harm

• Hope intermediary can reduce risks of making concessions

  • Protect image if they choose to compromise

• Belief that mediator solves the credible commitment dilemma

• Normative approval

  • Especially with international organization mediator

Why would a mediator mediate a resolution to a conflict?

• Defensively

  • To reduce instability and opportunities for adversaries to take advantage; to keep influence in a region

• To extend international influence

  • Mediation is a low-risk form of intervention

  • Ex: Pakistan in US-Iran

• In response to domestic popular pressure, including humanitarian calls to intervene

  • Impact of diaspora

• To avoid taking sides in a conflict

When does meditation work? What are some challenges to successful mediation?

Facilitating conditions:

• Perceptions of “mutually hurting stalemate”

• Crisis (ex. Probability of defeat or economic collapse)

Challenges:

• Types of actors

  • Terrorist designations and aims make mediation less likely

• Conflict ripeness

• Conflict intensity

• Nature of issues at play

  • Indivisibles

What are some sources of leverage for mediators?

• Persuasion

  • Formulating alternative futures as more attractive than current situation

• Extraction

  • Extract proposal that is attractive outcome for each side

• Termination

  • Threat or promise to withdraw from mediation

    • Last hope

• Deprivation (stick)

  • Ability to withhold resources or shift them from one side to another

    • Tariffs

• Gratification (carrot)

  • Ability to grant resources

What are the ethical dilemmas and competing priorities that mediators face?

• Mediators often prioritize stopping the war / violence by any means possible, over securing an agreement that will be accepted and durable over the long term.

  • Liberal International fixation

    • The position that the “Give War a Chance” argument responds to

What is the primary focus of most mediation?

Most mediation in international or intrastate conflict is focused on securing cease fires and negotiated settlements.

• Multistep process of confidence building

• Culminates in a peace treaty or settlement which:

  • Outlines conditions for ending a conflict (including demobilization and disarmament)

  • Clarifies power sharing roles

Why do negotiated settlements tend to break down in Civil Wars? What are the conditions for sustainability?

Negotiated settlements in civil wars tend to break down because segments of power-sharing governments retain the ability to return to conflict

• Conditions for sustainability

  • Strong government institutions / state

  • Political culture of accommodation

  • Economic prosperity and equality

  • Enforcements supported by elites

  • Constructive and supportive relationship with the international community

What is the definition of international law?

• Traditional: Rules recognized by states as binding to them

• Modern: A set of rules that seek to regulate the behavior of states

Applies to international actors:

• States

• International organizations

• ‘Peoples’ — ethnic, cultural, linguistic, religious identities

• Individuals — piracy, human trafficking / slavery, genocide, war crimes

What are the sources of International Law

• Codified:

  • Conventions and treaties

  • International organizations (UN General Assembly and Security Council)

• Not codified:

  • Custom: Demonstrated by widespread state practice over time.

  • General principles of law, including natural law

    • Codified or present in nearly all domestic legal systems

  • Scholarship, judicial opinions (?)

What are the challenges to international law?

• Varied legal traditions globally

  • Common law, civil law, etc.

    • Civil Law: comprehensive legal codes, judicial decisions are secondary

    • Common Law: case law and statutes, judge-made, interpretive, adversarial. Relies on precedent. Fills in gaps with written laws.

    • Religious law: religious texts as basis of law

    • Customary law: based on community traditions, oral or written.

• Lacks critical institutional infrastructure

  • International law has no:

    • Legislature — to create common laws

    • Central enforcement —- to enforce them

    • Final appellate court — to appeal laws and decisions

    • Universal court with compulsory jurisdiction — only states can bring cases to the ICJ

    • Lacks the 5 Cs: Congress, Code, Court, Cop and Clink

• State sovereignty is also a challenge to international law

  • States have to consent to international law and to the authority / jurisdiction of international institutions (ICC)

Why is international law still somewhat effective?

Norms can be powerful

• International law and entitlements

  • Territorial integrity, territorial sea, diplomatic immunity, etc.

• Entitlements can be revoked, sanctions imposed

• International actors view international law as law — behave as such and set a norm of compliance — social construction of a norm

  • Has been erosion of some laws — especially in the domain of war and peace

    • But most laws have remained followed by the international community

• Legitimacy of action is a collective norm —- as is state sovereignty

What are the types of international law?

• War and peace

• Human rights

• Diplomacy

• Trade

• Commercial

• Intellectual property rights

• Litigation

What are the four rules of War and Peace law?

• Sovereignty and non-intervention

• Prohibition on the use of force

• Lawful conduct of war

• Respect for human rights

What is the United Nations Security Council and what is its role in the international community?

• Primary responsibility of UNSC is peace and stability

• There are 5 permanent members with veto power and 10 rotating members

  • The permanent members are US, UK, France, Russia, and China

• Chapter 6 and Chapter 7 abilities

  • Chapter 6: Measures the UNSC and UNGA can take to promote peaceful resolutions of disputes

  • Chapter 7: actions the UNSC can take to address a breach of peace

What is the first rule of war?

• Sovereignty and non-intervention

  • UN Charter: Chapter 1, Article 2

    • Section 1: The organization is based on the principle of sovereign equality of all its members

    • Section 7: Nothing contained in the present Charter shall authorize the United Nations to intervene in matters which are essentially within the domestic jurisdictions of any state or shall require the Members to submit such matters to settlement under the present charter

What is the second rule of War?

• Prohibition on the use of force

  • Jus Ad Bellum: laws about when you can go to war

    • Article 2 (4)

      • Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force

        • Exceptions

          • Self-Defense (UN Charter Article 51)

            • Preemptive self-defense can be legal, but the threat has to be immediate and legitimate

          • UN Security Council authorization

    • Aggression is a crime under the Rome Statute Article 8

      • Aggression includes

        • Invasion or attack

        • Bombardment

        • Blockade

        • Proxy war

          • Supporting armed groups

What is the third rule of war?

• Lawful Conduct of War

  • Jus in bellum: regulates conduct of parties in war

    • War crimes — International Humanitarian Law

    • Covers International and intrastate conflict, but only at a certain level of intensity and organization for intrastate

    • International Criminal Court

      • Prosecutes war criminals

What have the Geneva conventions outlined about the rules of war?

• Protection of those who are not (or are no longer) directly taking part in the hostilities

• Restrictions on the means of warfare — in particular weapons —- and methods of warfare, such as military tactics;

  • Key pillars of legal military tactics

    • Distinction

      • Between civilians and civilian objects and combatants and military objectives

    • Proportionality

      • When attacking a military objective, incidental loss to civilian life, damage to civilian objects, must not be excessive in relation to the direct military advantage anticipated

    • Military necessity

      • Only means and method necessary to achieve legitimate aims of armed conflict

    • Precaution

      • Must take all feasible precaution to avoid or minimize civilian harm

    • Methods

      • Like starvation of civilians or perfidy prohibited

What are the Four Geneva Conventions and what are their purposes?

• First Geneva Convention for the Amelioration of the Condition of the Wounded and Sick in the Armed Forces in the Field

• Second Geneva Convention for the Amelioration of the Condition of the Wounded, Sick and Shipwrecked Members of Armed Forces at Sea

• Third Geneva Convention Relative to the Treatment of Prisoners of War

• Fourth Geneva convention Relative to the Protection of Civilian Persons in Times of War

What does the Geneva Convention say about intrastate war?

• Persons not taking part in the hostiles should be treated humanely

  • Following acts are banned

    • Violence to life and person

    • Taking of hostages

    • Humiliating and degrading treatment

    • Lack of judicial fairness

      • Need fair trial

What is the fourth rule of war?

Respect for human rights

• Universal Declaration of Human Rights (1948)

  • Laid out fundamental protection of human rights

• Convention for the prevention and punishment of the crime of Genocide (1948)

What are the three pillars of Responsibility to Protect (R2P)?

• The responsibility of states to protect their own peoples

• The responsibility of other states to assist each other in their protection responsibilities

• The responsibility of the global community to respond in a timely and decisive manner if a state was manifestly failing to meet its responsibilities

What is the realist approach to intervention?

Position raised by Hans Morgenthau

• States are going to intervene

  • Why worry about legitimate vs. illegitimate reasons

• Intervention has to be in interest of intervener and success has to be likely

  • “Intervene we must where our national interest requires it and where our power gives us a chance to succeed."

    • Many potential risks for intervention

      • Backlash?

      • Cost?

      • Post-war government

• “intervene less and succeed more”

What is the history of intervention?

1793: French Constitution

• Against intervening in other nations’ affairs

George Washington

• Against meddling in other nations affairs

UN Charter

• Focus on self-determination and shun of intervention

  • Especially during decolonization

  • Very few instances when countries can intervene

What is the liberal international approach to intervention?

Llyod Cutler, WH Counsel under Carter and Clinton

• Based on Vattel’s Law of Nations

  • help the party with “justice on its side”

• Argued to be in line with the UN Charter Article 1

  • Promotes equal rights and self-determination

  • Respect for human rights and for fundamental freedoms

• NO consideration of likelihood of success / nation’s self-interests

  • Idealistic and broad

When can states intervene?

These situations fall in the category of customary law

• When order has broken down

  • To provide humanitarian aid or rescue nationals and diplomats

• To aid a government fighting an insurgency (requires consent)

• Counter-intervention

  • Once another outside actor intervenes on one’s party side, other states are entitled to assist the opposite

    • Controversial as it could lead to escalation

What is humanitarian intervention?

The use of military force by one or more states within the jurisdiction of another, without its permission, to protect innocent people from violence by the target state’s government.

Why might a state want to intervene on a humanitarian basis?

• Refugees escaping mass violence cross borders

• Trade, commerce, investment disrupted by violence

• Humanitarian crisis could spark conflict in other states

• Moral duty

• Image-making

• Domestic pressure

• Geopolitical ambitions

What are the key sources of law about when states should intervene on a humanitarian basis?

• Convention against Genocide (1948)

• Universal Declaration of Human Rights (1948)

• Responsibility to Protect (2005)

What are challenges with the genocide standard for intervention?

• Securing agreement that genocide is happening soon enough to make a difference

• Focused on wrong operational goal for preventing greatest harm

  • Group existence valued over collective of individuals affected

    • Philosophical debate

      • Qualitatively different crime of killing group then killing people of same number

• Genocide standard does not factor in long-term political consequences of intervention

• Genocide standard does not outline what cost states should accept in return (cost-benefit analysis)

What are challenges with the R2P standard of intervention?

• Calls for the international community to intervene whenever “a population is suffering serious harm” and to assume responsibility to

  • Stop genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing, crimes against humanity

  • Prevent harm by helping states protect populations before humanitarian crises occur

  • rebuild the society after interven