Voting Behaviour

What is voting behaviour?

Refers to the factors that influence how and why people choose to vote for a particular political party

What factors affecting voting behaviour in the UK?

Social Factors - social class, age, gender, ethnicity, educaiton

Political Factors - party trust, issue voting, leadership, valence issues, economic competence, campaign success

Geographical Factors - region, red/blue walls, urban vs rural

Short-term context - national crises scandals, gov record, tactical voting

What is social class?

A way of grouping people in society based on their economic and social status (job type, income, education)

What is class dealignment?

The weakening of the link between a person’s class and the traditional party with which they would have been aligned

What is partisan dealignment?

The long-term decline of a voter being loyal to just one party

Historically, social class was defined by income:

W/C voters were aligned with Labour

M/C voters & U/C were aligned with the Conservative Party

What are AB?

AB - higher and intermediate managerial, administrative or professional roles

What are C1?

C1 - supervisory or junior managerial, administrative or professional role

What are C2?

C2 - skilled manual workers

What are DE?

DE - semi and unskilled manual workers and unemployed

Voting by Social Class in 2024 General Election

‘Traditional’ voting patterns were challenged in some ways, but also reflected the importance of national circumstances

After 14 years of Conservative rule, austerity, COVID, and scandals like Partygate, over 50% of voters said they voted Labour to ‘get the Tories out’ = undermines the importance of all demographics factors

How did AB vote in 2024 General Election?

36% Labour

26% Conservative

17% Lib Dem

9% Reform

7% Green

How did DE vote in 2024 General Election?

32% Labour

26% Conservative

10% Lib Dem

17% Reform

5% Green

Age & Voting Behaviour

Younger voters tended to vote for more left-wing parties, while older people have tended to vote more right-wing parties

1979, 18-24 year olds cast 42% of their votes for Conservatives; this was just 5% in 2024

1979, 38% of 65+ year olds voted Labour; this dropped to 23% in 2024

However, between 1979-2024, the 18-24 year old vote for Labour remained at 30% and the 65+ vote for Conservativs remained around 45%

Age & Voting Often

Older voters are more likely to vote than younger ones

Less than half of 18-24 year olds voted in 2024, whilst over 3/4 of over 65s voted

Age, along with education, was the most important factor for voting behaviour in 2024

How did 18-24 year olds vote in 2024 General Election?

41% Labour

5% Conservative

16% Lib Dem

8% Reform

19% Green

How did 65+ year olds vote in 2024 General Election?

23% Labour

43% Conservative

12% Lib Dem

14% Reform

2% Green

Red Wall and Blue Wall

Traditionally, Labour have had stronger-voter base in the North (Red Wall) whilst Conservatives tended to do better in South and South-East (Blue Wall)

In 2019 election, many ‘red wall’ seats fell to the Conservative Party

In 2024 election, many ‘blue wall’ seats fell to the Labour Party

Vote share in red wall seats in the North-east, 2019

Labour 24.5%

Conservative 30.6%

Liberal Democrat 21.9%

Reform 14%

Green 6.9%

Vote share in blue wall seats in the South-east 2024

Labour 45.4%

Conservative 20.2%

Lib Dem 5.9%

Reform 19.9%

Green 6%

Voting behaviour in London

Since its inception, voters have elected a Labour Party Mayor of London on 5/7 occasions

London councils are overwhelmingly Labour-run and, in the 2024 GE, the Labour Party achieved a 43% vote share in the capital

Vote share in London 2024 General Election

Labour 43%

Conservative 20.5%

Lib Dem 11%

Reform 8.7%

Green 10.1%

Ethnicity and Voting Behaviour

Typically, Labour has gained strong support from ethnic minority voters

Conservatives tend to get stronger support from white voers

However, between 2019-2024:

Conservatives saw a 22% drop in their share of white voters

Labour saw an 18% drop in their share of ethnic minority voters

White Voter share 2024 General Election

Labour 33%

Conservatives 26%

Lib Dems 13%

Reform 16%

Green 6%

Other 6%

Ethnic Minority Voters 2024 General Election

Labour 46%

Conservative 17%

Lib Dem 8%

Reform 3%

Green 11%

Other 14%

Asian Vote Share 2024 General Election

Labour 39%

Conservative 18%

Lib Dem 8%

Reform 3%

Green 11%

Other 21%

Black Vote Share 2024 General Election

Labour 68%

Conservative 16%

Lib Dem 6%

Reform 1%

Green 8%

Other 2%

Mixed Voters Share 2023

Labour 50%

Conservative 14%

Lib Dem 11%

Reform 7%

Green 13%

Other 5%

Education & Voting Behaviour 1979-2015

Those who were educated to school-level more likely to vote Labour in every election from 1979-2015

Graduates were more likely to vote Conservative

Education & Voting Behaviour Since Brexit

Graduates more likely to have backed ‘Remain’ and have subsequently backed Labour

School leavers more likely to have backed ‘Leave’ and have subsequently backed the Conservatives

How is education related to age?

In 2001, only 20% of voters were graduates

In 2031, graduates are expected to outnumber school leavers

Education along with age was the most important factor in determining voting behaviour in 2024

No Education Qualifications Vote Share 2024 General Election

Conservative 39%

Labour 28%

Lib Dem 4%

Reform 18%

Green 3%

Degree or Higher Vote Share 2024 General Election

Labour 43%

Conservative 19%

Lib Dem 16%

Reform 7%

Green 9%

Gender & Voting Behaviour

Historically, women have been more likely to vote for left leaning parties

Men more likely to vote for right-leaning parties

HOWEVER, this gender gap narrowed in 2024:

34% of men and 35% of women voted Labour

23% of men and 26% of women voted Conservative

There is a relationship between age and gender

Labour received more votes from younger women than younger men

Conservatives received more votes from older women than older men

Around 20% of older men were inclined to vote for Reform