IR Test 2

the liberal international order

post WWII-present

Hegemonic order with American hegemon → provide security to embrace order and build IGOs to promote secondary objectives

US beliefs: individual above community, representative democracy, capitalism

What isn’t the world afraid of all the American hegemon?

Ikenberry says we created institutions to constrain ourself. Also, some states share our political/economic structures

How long will the liberal international order persist?

As long as American hegemony persists, so we dont know

To what degree, if at all, can one view the creation and maintenance of the UN and the global economy after World War II as an American hegemonic project?

UN supports values of US (four freedoms), capitalist economies and democracy. Global economy is American project bc American (& EU) particpation creates validity of international insitutions. America is last resort lender and consumer.

When are most international orders created, and by who?

In the wake of large wars by the victors of those wars.

After WWI, Wilson thought the war’s cause was autocracy and changed European governments.

After WWII, FDR thought the war’s cause was tyranny/dictatorship so he strongly pushed for **representative democracies** (Marshall plan, foreign aid, recreating institutions).

At the end of cold war, Clinton said we need to take advantage of power vacuum to promote democracy (& capitalism). Used American resourcees to restructure world around US values

What are the primary elements of the contemporary international economic order?

market based liberalism (capitalism)

WTO, IMF

extended deterrence

We give our nuclear/military power to our allies through treaty committments & troop deployment

**Effects**: deter countries from attacking our allies, reassure allies they dont need to acquire their own military power

How to credibily extend deterrence?

alliances, which reduce fear of abandonment but increase fear of entrapment. military deployment and defense pacts.

Risks of extended deterrence

abandonment- backing out of promises,

entrapment- getting pulled in to a war you dont want to be in

How, according to Reiter, do “level of threat” and “fear of entrapment” interact to influence state decisions about whether to acquire a nuclear weapon?

higher level of threat → more likely to aquire weapons (not accept security committment)

higher fear of entrapment → more likely to aquire weapons

Relate the concept of extended deterrance to American policy toward Europe and Asia since 1950.

We put nuclear weapons in South Korea until 1991 to reassure our allies of their safety from North Korea. S. Korea has requested them again.

According to Reiter’s theoretical argument, what impact did US extended deterrence likely have on nuclear proliferation in Asia and Europe after WWII?

less proliferation than what would have happened otherwise

US security umbrella

because reassure allies they dont need to aquire their own military power to be protected → reduced security dilemmas (when seen as an assurance game) → limited nuclear proliferation

this security also provides foundation for cooperation in pursuit of **secondary goals**

secondary goals/objectives

**FDRs four freedoms** (freedom from want, fear, speech, worship) reduced to:

Liberal democracy with individual political/human rights

Liberal economy with private ownership of means of production, markets allocate resources (capitalism)

the long peace

Decline of war post WWII, less deaths in conflicts, more democracy and less colonization

Potential reasons for the long peace:

1. just luck. we usually have a big war every 100 years so its not crazy we haven't had one in a while.
2. hegemonic stability (US extended deterrence as hegemon prevents arms race and increases stability. There is more conflict outside the security umbrella)
3. **Democratic peace**
4. **Capitalist peace**

What are some explanations for the long peace that do not work?

the geography hypothesis: rich nations are at temperate latitudes because tropical diseases impact producitivty and tropical soil is not good for agriculture

the culture hypothesis: protestant work ethic spurred industrialization and poor nations lack work ethic, resist modern technology

the ignorance hypothesis: poor nations have bad economists/policy makers who create market failures

Democratic Peace proposition

democracies are less likley to fight with other democracies

democracies usually win wars against nondemocracies and have less casualties

democratic states in disputes with each other chose peaceful resolutions

democratic powers do not initiate preventative wars

Explanations for democratic peace

democratic institutions make it harder/less likely for leaders to chose war (more accountability w/ checks and balances)

norms shared between democratic states make them less threatening and trustworthy

democracies foster economic independence

democratic leaders want to be reelected and war is usually unpopular

Caveats of democratic peace

democratic states are not immune to conflict with nondemocracies

democratizing states may be more war prone

democracies may resort to proxy wars

perceptions of democracies as more peaceful can change

there can (and have been) democratic reversals

**Spurious correlation:** democratic peace could be correlation NOT causation, maybe its hegomony or prosperity making peace instead

**Reverse causality:** peace (US extended deterrance) causes democracy, not the other way around

Capitalist peace theory

capitalism/free markets → economic interdependence between states (trade, investments, global supply chains) → increases opportunity cost of war (how bad it would be) → less war, more cooperation → protected markets, happy consumers

Critiques of capitalist peace

spuriousness: MNCs and global economies constrain governments ability to go to war with each other

the WTO

an IGO that oversees regulation of international export activity, created by governments to bring rule of law/create liberal order

Components of the WTO

1. Rules/code of conduct for states’ trading/borders and amending constitutions
2. Process/forum for states to exchange committments in **bargaining rounds** (have increased in length over time)
3. Enforcement/**dispute settlement mechanism**

Rules states’ in the WTO

1. market based liberalist (capitalist) economy
2. **non-discrimination**
1. most favored nation treatment
2. generalized system of prefrences (can give lower tariffs to developing countries)
3. national treatment (same standards for domestic and international products)
3. **escape clauses**: limited right to opt out of prior committments
1. protect from unfair trade (product dumping messing with economy)
2. protect from short term disturbances
3. protect non-economic policy objectives (environment)

How does the dispute settlement mechanism of the WTO work?

using prisinors dilemma as the model, there is an incentive to defect from committments → DSM holds countries accountable for their committments

What are some acheivements of the WTO?

lower tariffs, increase in exports/trade, increase in WTO membership, Eurasia dominates trade

How do core principles of WTO (market liberalism and non-discrimination) reflect US interests?

materialist interest, post wwi we had sophisticated goods/economy → oepning world to our markets was good for our economy

core american belief in democracy → we extended it

Why do states need an institution like the WTO to liberalize trade?

4 purposes of institutions: cheapen joint decision making, set standards of behavior, verify compliance, resolve disputes

List three ways in which the GATT/WTO changed between 1965 and 2020?

more countries participating, more country from developing world, regional trade agreements, NGOs become powerful actors, longer bargaining rounds

the china shock

when China joined the WTO in 2001→ Chinese exports increase to US, EU → manufacturing employment in US and EU tanked

What was the logic for including China in the WTO?

constructive engagement: if we include China, they will become more democratic and peaceful

multinational corporations

MNCs own a controlling interest in productive assets in 2+ national economies

How are MNCs established?

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): cross border capital flow AKA buying/creating a factory in another country, extending ownership from one country to another

Trends in FDI

big increase since 1990 (with dip in 2007 from crash)

EU is largest output and input of FDI (economic interdependence of EU)

China is the largest recipient of FDI in Asia

In anarchic international system, why would MNCs feel comfortable investing in foreign countries?

mechanisms ensure safety of private assets in foreign countries

In MNC activity a global phenomena?

No, mostly in Eurasia and N. America

What has MNC activity generated?

A world organized by global supply chains

Structure of global supply chain

1. Raw materials produced (& usually refined) in low income economies
2. Labor and production in middle income societies with less natural resources
3. Technology and human captial in global north

FDI model of production (today)

nothing is made and sold nationally, components are produced all around the world in the global supply chain

What makes the globalization of trade possible?

assumption of low tarriffs, low transportation costs, good communication to coordinate production, belief in stability of system

What has driven the increase in world trade?

MNCs. 75% of world trade takes place through MNC supply chains (can’t have one without the other)

What is comparative advantage?

specialization: making whatever you can make cheapest and importing the other stuff. basis of free trade

What is the source of comparative advantage according to the Hecksher-Ohlin model?

Factor endowments: what labor and capital (machines) you have to start out with, specialize in what you have

the great divergence

income, development, quality of life etc diverged between global south and north during 19th century

ideas of structuralism

1. free trade between south and north in capitalist system inhibits development of global south (Singer-Prebisch theory)
2. industrialization → higher standard of living
3. state intervention is necesary to switch from agricultural to industrial economy

in structuralist theory, why is state intervention necessary to industrialize?

1. complementary demand: lots of manufacturing jobs have to start at the same time to create markets for the new manufactured goods
2. precuniary external economics: markets won't increase productions (steel) unless they are sure their buyer (auto industry) will keep buying

In structuralist theory, how does free trade inhibit growth?

trade pessimism

Diagnosis of structuralism

limit contact with global north → state led development strategies (ISIs)

trade pessimism

Imperialism: direct exploitation via foreign ownership (MNCs) → colonial home country captures profits from agricultural production → MNCs won't invest in manufacturing in global south bc that would lower their profits

Trade relationships/Terms of Trade: south exports agriculture and imports manufactured products → price differences between these → long term impoverishment, south having to export more and more → less savings to invest

Institutions: GATT was dominated by US, EU to liberalize trade → high trade barriers on developing countries, northern markets have an advantage

import substitution industrialization (ISIs)

states subsituting domestic goods for previously imported goods

Protectionist in nature: state makes decisions about allocating labor, capital to encourage investment in to industrialization, not agriculture (redirecting resources)

**Goals of ISIs:** industrialize, insolate from global economy

When did states begin utilizing ISIs? Which states?

Post WWII, decolonization in Latin America, South and East Asia, Africa. Extreme ISIs in Soviet Bloc, China

What policy instruments did states use to implement ISIs?

tariffs and trade barriers, overvaluing exchange rates, direct subsidies to targeting industries, extracting resources from agriculture

building state owned enterprises → less private ownership economy

Primary state of ISIs

1. making consumer non-durables
1. low capital costs
2. low skill level required
3. used availible machinery
4. utilized existing large domestic markets
Effects: increase employment, develop worker skills, exhaustible benefits

Secondary state of ISIs

durable/capital goods (cars)
1. used exisiting technology
2. requires larger investment
3. higher skilled workers
4. new higher income market could support industry

**Tools of secondary ISIs:** government planning (5 yr plans), trade barriers, state owned enterprises

**Effects:** farmers made less income than they would in free market, rapid economic growth in manufacturing sectors, industrialization

Challenges to development using ISIs

1. Terms of trade shock
1. states needed revenue from exporting to buy machinery but devaluation of exports → need to export more and more for same imports
2. World interest rates
1. rising inflation in global north → rising interest rates → cost of borrowing goes up, exisitng debt costs rise

When did states abandon ISIs?

1980s. Now, they participiate in WTO and less government intervention

How did ISIs impact the global economy?

countries that used ISIs did not partipicate in GATT, then pushed for reform in GATT and EU

What was the New International Economic Order?

New radical demands from Group 77. Wanted more control over MNCs, more aid, cheaper foreign technology, price stabilization.

Failed.

How do countries get involved in a SAP?

financial challenges → loan from international organizations → conditionalities to put country on ‘proper’ economic path

Goal of SAPs

- make economies viable in global system
- turn countries into neoliberal market based model of development (**Washington Consensus,** which gave strong support to IMF decided this was best way to organize ur economy)
- utilize **comparative advantage** to go back to agricultural commodity economy

Elements of SAPs

1. currency devaluation
1. decrase value of local currency → exported goods are cheaper → increased demand
2. removal/reduction of state from economy
1. capitalism/free market
3. elimination of subsidies
1. removal of price controls/alterations
4. trade liberalization
1. revert back to agriculutral economy
2. removal of protections for local industries

Primary effects of SAPs

1. drop in standard of living
2. unemployment in public sector
3. poor education/infrustructure

Secondary effects of SAPs

1. failure of regimes
1. governments have no control over economy
2. people pull out of political system bc of discontent
3. IMF requires strong state to implement SAPs, yet insists on weakening it
2. environment
1. increased use of land → environmental degradation
2. increased demand for food, wood
3. differentiation of third world scenarios
4. food availability
1. worst in urban areas that are not self sufficient
5. urban rural disparities
1. lower standard of living in urban areas
6. poverty and *under*development
7. influx of MNCs
1. foreign investments buying formerly state owned enterprises

How many sub-Sahara African regimes implemented SAPs during the 1980s and 1990s?

39/42

stabilization

focus on inflation, consumption, balance budget to reduce need for borrowing

Tools of stabilization

1. increase tax revenues, cut expendetures (public services)
2. raise interest rates to restrict growth of credit and money supply
3. devalue exchange rates to reduce imports, increase exports

Effects of stabilization

unemployment, forced recession

world bank

provides long term financial assistance to struggling countries

the IMF

writes reports on economic outlooks which are important to developing countries, provides short term financial assistance to struggling countries (last resort lender)

created by US and allies post WWII, members vote on borrowing proposals

US has such large share of GDP → essential veto power (tool of US hegemony)

big on free market principles

IMF lending programs

conditional loans, must agree to stabilization and structural adjustment programs

Factors that make war more likely

1. Low per capita income
2. Negative income shocks
3. IMF adjustment participation (SAPs)

All present in sub-saharan africa

Why do we use conflict to resolve disputes (civil & interstate) if war is so inefficient? (monetary cost, loss of lives, GDP loss)

actors capabilities (personnel, finances, skills etc) and resolve is unknown by adversaries → incentive to misrepresent capabilities and resolve → fighting reveals this information

Why does it take so long to end war?

time consistency problem- cannot ensure credibility of commitments in the future → reluctance to reach/commit to settlements → long wars, cycles of settlements → ends with decisive military victory

How do you solve commitment problem?

third party intervention (UN Peacekeepers)

What is an information asymmetry, and how does it affect bargaining?

Either side does not have all the information about the other (capabilities, resolve) → decreases odds of settlement

What is a “credible commitment” and how does it affect civil wars?

in a war where a commitment is less credible (governments can easily go back on promises) → decisive victory is better than settling

Why do some civil wars last longer than others?

wars with evenly matched sides, high resolve, information/power asymmetries and non-credible commitments last longer

Why do some civil wars recur while others do not?

shorter wars (less information revealed), less decisive victories and no third party intervention are more likely to reoccur

How do third party peacekeepers solve the commitment problem?

1. defends each party against the other
2. disarms both parties
3. turn relationship from conflict to cooperation

New institutions established during the criminalization of war crimes

ICC to investigate and prosecute war crimes, R2P

War crimes

murder, mutilation, pillaging, destroying culturally important buildings, rape, sexual slavery, enlisting children

Crimes against humanity

enslavement, genocide, persecution of particular groups, apartheid, forced sterilization

international criminal court (ICC)

Began in 1998 with Rome Statue approved by GA in UN, each state had to ratify after

Why hasn’t the US ratified the Rome Statute?

we have troops everywhere so it would be easy/likely for our troops to be accused of crimes.

Jurisdiction of the ICC

1. subjects
1. war crimes, crimes against humanity
2. Territorial
1. countries that have ratified statute
3. Temporal
1. 2002-present

Locations of ICC investigations

mostly in global south (sub-saharan Africa & middle east) → seen as a tool for the west against the global south → seen as illegitimate to some African states

Elements of R2P

1. states must protect their citizens from war crimes, crimes against humanity
2. the international community must assist states in these efforts
3. the international community must protect citizens (intervene) if state cannot (this is a new obligation)

human rights > sovereignty

Critiques of R2P

justification for western intervention in developing states (ex: US used R2P as justification to intervene in Libya and change regimes)

Who employs R2P?

UN, collective action (other states working together)

Pax Americana

peaked in 2015, American hegemonic order with our Four Freedoms being internationalized

Effects of Pax Americana

extended deterrence, democracy, market based economies

Tools of Pax Americana

SAPs, expanding rationale for humanitarian intervention (aka west going in to south)