VOTING BEHAVIOUR

1979 Election Partisan Dealignment

Traditional class voting evident

• Conservatives win 43.9% of vote

• 41% of CE voters voted Tory

1979 Election Region

Historic vote pattern

• labour strong in North and Industrial areas

• conservatives in the south

1979 Election Age

18-24 year olds cast 42% of the votes

38% of 65+ year olds voted labour

1979 Election Ethnicity

86% Ethnic Minorities voted Labour

1979 Election Valence

Margaret Thatcher’s leadership

• traditional social values

• promoted social mobility

Jim Callaghan

• 1976 Sterling Crisis - borrowed from the IMF

• propped up by liberals till 1978

• 1979 vote of no confidence lost

1979 Election Media

Saatchi and Saatchi given public relations account

• strong anti labour campaign 2.3 million

1997 Election Partisan Dealignment

Labour and Tory even at 37% of C1 vote

• AB 31% Labour

1997 Election Region

60.9% of North of England voted Labour

• 26.4% Labour South

1997 Election Age

Youth vote favoured labour

• 18-24: 49% labour

1997 Election Ethnic Groups

78% of Ethnic minorities voted labour

1997 Election Valence Issues

John Major

• 1992 Maastricht Treaty & Euroskepticism

• 1992 Black Wednesday - fall out of ERM

Tony Blair

• abandoned Clause IV

• labour had only 5 pledges

1997 Election Media

Wooed Murdoch

• ‘The Sun’ had a circulation of 3 million

2019 Election Partisan Dealignment

Gain support of C2DE voters

• 48% in C2DE, 43% in AB, C1

• Labour 33% in comparison

2019 Election Region

Labour 49% in London, Conservatives 47% in rural areas

2019 Elections Age

18-24: 56% Labour, Conservatives 21%

70+: 67% Conservative

2019 Elections Ethnicity

48% of white voters supported Conservatives

2019 Elections Education

GCSE or Lower: 58% Cons. V 25% Labour

Degree educated: 43% Labour

2019 Elections Valence Issues

Jeremy Corbyn and Antisemitism

• EHRC statutory investigation

• 9 high profile resignation

2024 Election Class Dealignment

Working class to reform

• C2: 25% Reform

• AB: 36% Labour

2024 Election Region

North West - Labour 44%

• turnout varied 58.7% London, Wales 56.2%

2024 Election Age

18-24 apathy

• Conservatives 2%, Labour 15%

• 45-64 18% Reform

2024 Election Ethnicity

32% of Indians voted Conservatives

Labour drops 13-18% in Black and Asian communities

2024 Election Valence

stupid tories

2024 Election Media

Labour adversarial campaign

• Morgan McSweeney & Pat McFadden