Paper 1: 2024 Election

Policies and manifesto

Tory- Increase pension tax threshold, cap migrant visas, national service

Labour: Publicly owned energy, scrap Rwanda, lower voting age, bye hereditary peers, VAT on private schools

Campaign

Sunak seen as incompetant 63% and untrustworthy 70%, bets on election day further hit credibility- worse campaign ever

-Lib dems used attention grabbing stunts with Ed Davy

-Reform support from 45% to 54%

-Labour “change” Ming vase strategy

-65% of voters had already made minds up

-Media- racism in reform, corruption tories but “no story stood out”

Context

-Cost of living, health and immigration

-2nd lowest ever turnout 59.8% down from 67.3% in 2019

-Covid 19 and Ukraine war, 75% unfavourable to Sunak

Factors influencing voting patterns

-Complete class dealignment, similar levels for main parties across all social classes

-Strong alignment with Brexit vote

-Party dealignment, Tory seats gained gained from Labour lost again to Labour or Lib dems as well as rise of Reform coming 2nd in many former tory seats

-Ethnicity 68% black people voted Labour, 14 Tory but Labour’s support for ethnic minorities fell to Green andn independent parties Palestine

-SNP collapse in Scotland

-All Reform seats came from working class towns with lower education leave voters

Factors influencing voting behavior

-43% of people with degrees or higher voted Labour vs 19 for tory and 7 for Reform

-No real gender difference

-43% over 65s voted Tory, 23% for Labour, 14 Reform, 2 Green

-Ethnicity 68% black people voted Labour, 14 Tory but Labour’s support for ethnic minorities fell to Green and independent parties Palestine

-SNP collapse in Scotland

-All Reform seats came from working class towns with lower education leave voters