GOVT 329- Exam 3

What is the logic of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD)?

1) assured annilhation: both states have the nuclear capability to impose unacceptable costs on the other

2) secure second strike: both states have the ability to launch a retaliatory strike and impose unacceptable costs, even after absorbing the first strike

Why is the logic of MAD considered stable (peace-inducing)?

If both components (assured annilhation and secure second strike) are present, neither side has the incentive to use a nuclear weapon first. Attacking with a nuclear weapon first results in an annihilating retaliatory strike launched by the other state.

What is First Strike Advantage?

the possibility that one side in a MAD relationship obtains the ability to disarm an opponent, preventing them from launching a retaliatory nuclear strike.

How does First Strike Advantage destabilize the logic of MAD?

it gives both sides the incentive to strike first when they suspect an attack is imminent (because they fear the other side will launch a disarming strike) rather than attacking only if attacked.

What role does fear of first strike advantage play in nuclear arms racing?

extreme risk aversion (caused by fear of nuclear war) drives nuclear arms racing. both sides want to modernize and build up their nuclear strike capability to ensure the other does not gain a first strike advantage.

Why does a stable deterrent logic result in nuclear arms racing?

fear of first strike advantage is rooted in the significant risk aversion associated with nuclear balancing. states don’t want nuclear war so they try very hard to ensure that MAD is stable.

According to Lieber and Press, how does new sensor and computer processing technology have the potential to destabilize MAD?

sensors are negating 2 key approaches countries use to secure their nuclear arsenals: hardening & concealment

it will be progressively easier to spot and hit targets deep within an opponent’s territory.

this will reduce deterrent stability, undercut the logic of future arms reductions

According to Lieber and Press, what will happen between nuclear great powers from new sensory and computing technology?

rich states will respond to new computing and sensing capabilities by

• investing in countermeasures

• protecting their nuclear strike capability

• MAD will remain stable among rich nuclear powers.

What will happen between lesser powers with nuclear weapons from new computer and sensor technology?

poorer nuclear states may not have the money or expertise to develop countermeasures, and MAD will become destabilized.

What will happen between nuclear great powers and lesser nuclear powers from new computer and sensor technology?

MAD will be destabilized for lesser powers, because they will have trouble making their arsenal survivable against rich nuclear states, who will have a first-strike capability against poorer nuclear states.

According to Gavin, what were three primary goals of U.S. strategy during the Cold War?

1) contain the soviet union & communism

2) open the international economic to capitalism & promote democracy

3) prevent spread of nuclear weapons

According to Gavin, why did the United States want to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons?

to prevent…

• the deliberate or accidental use of nuclear weapons against the US

• 3rd parties from dragging the US into war through the use of.a nuclear weapon

• nuclear proliferation tipping points (a surge in countries attaining weapons)

• states from using nuclear weapons to deter the US

• allies using nuclear weapons to gain greater independence from the US

• revisionist states using nuclear weapons as a shield

to keep nuclear weapons in the hands of great powers to ensure stable MAD

According to Krepon, why should the great powers ban nuclear weapons?

security concerns about the great powers' nuclear arsenals and the spread of weapons to other states drives nuclear proliferation (spread). nobody wants to live in an anarchic world where everyone has nuclear weapons.

According to critics, like Joffe and Davis, why is banning nuclear weapons unlikely or a bad idea?

• a great power war would be less dangerous, and more probable

• states with high conventional power would take advantage of smaller states

  • latent power would be more important —> conquest more necessary

• states would worry about secret nuclear programs

  • all states would be on hair-trigger alert for restarting nuclear program

What is the U.S. grand strategy regarding nuclear proliferation?

The United States has made limiting the spread of nuclear weapons a priority, using a variety of institutional, economic, military, and clandestine means.

What is a ballistic missile? What are its main characteristics?

• predictable hyperbolic/ballistic path

• NOT hiding

• travels at extreme speeds and high altitudes

What is the flight profile of a ballistic missile?

Parabolic

Why are ballistic missiles difficult to intercept?

Although the targets see a ballistic missile coming, it is difficult to intercept because of its high speed and altitude.

A country must have advanced radars and anti-ballistic missile interceptors.

Why are ballistic missiles proliferating?

• Ballistic missile technology is growing cheaper as technology advances

• because ballistic missiles are so difficult to intercept, people are getting them to threaten or attack opponents at significant distances.

• increasingly used as a substitute for long-range airpower

Why is ballistic missile proliferation dangerous?

Non-state actors are using ballistic missiles (like political resistance organizations) in a form of punishment-based coercion to impose costs.

What is a cruise missile? What are its main characteristics?

• hiding- flies extremely low to the ground

• jet-powered, long range

• maneuvering

• hiding in radar shadows created by terrain, vegetation, and human structures

What is the flight profile of a cruise missile?

Fly at a very low altitude, flying below radar coverage or hiding in surrounding radar clutter & the shadows created by geography and human structures.

Why are cruise missiles difficult to intercept?

They are difficult to detect (hide in radar shadows close to the ground).

Modern radar defense systems have a wide detection cone, must the system must be facing the incoming missile have a clear line of sight to detect it.

How are cruise missiles different from ballistic missiles?

• Powered by jet engines, not rockets.

• fly in the lower atmosphere (vey close to the ground), much lower than ballistic missiles

• maneuvering

What is a hypersonic missile? What are the main characteristics of a hypersonic missile?

• travels a NON-predictable flight path

• NOT hiding

• travels at extreme speeds & high altitudes

• extremely expensive

What is the flight profile of a hypersonic missile?

They maneuver through the upper atmosphere, following a non-predictable path and bypass enemy defenses

How are hypersonic missiles different from ballistic missiles?

hypersonic missiles are at the cutting edge of technology and very expensive, and harder to intercept. few countries are developing them. ballistic missiles are more proliferating.

How are the flight profiles of hypersonic missiles different from ballistic missiles?

• hypersonic missiles maneuver in the upper atmopshere, BLEOW ballistic missiles

• ballistic missiles can reach hypersonic speeds (during mid-course and re-entry) they do NOT maneuver.

Why are hypersonic weapons difficult to intercept?

The speeds & altitudes involved + the warhead is maneuvering, which makes it hard to tell what it is targeting

How are hypersonic weapons different from cruise missiles?

• powered by ballistic missiles (rockets), cruise missiles powered by jet engines

• very few states developing hypersonics, cruise missiles more common

How is a hypersonic missile’s flight profile different from that of a conventional cruise missile?

• hypersonic missile: fly in the upper atmosphere and attack a target from above, maneuver to follow a non-predictable path

• cruise missile:fly close to the ground and attack a target straight on or from above, maneuver to hide in terrain shadows

What are the policy implications of hypersonic weapons?

• destabilize MAD: create fears of first strike advantage because they’re difficult to counter

• reignite great power nuclear/missile arms race: each party tries to convince another that a disarming first strike is not possible

• high risk of accidental escalation/ default tendency to escalate / complicate deterrent decision-making

  • fast flight time gives little time to assess attacks and respond

  • difficult to determine missile targets- attacking nuclear forces or conventional forces?

  • difficult to distinguish attack type: conventionally armed hypersonic or nuclear armed weapon

What is ballistic missile defense?

facilitating extended deterrence and limiting damage from a ballistic missile attack

What are the two different means of intercepting a ballistic missile warhead?

1) boost phase intercept: using a high energy laser or interceptor missile to destroy the ballistic missile initially after its launch

2) midcourse-phase intercept: firing an interceptor missile that releases a warhead that slams into the incoming enemy warhead mid-course

3) terminal phase interceptors

What do critics say about BMD?

while BMD is effective in lessening the damage caused by conventionally armed ballistic missiles, they are less politically useful against nuclear armed ballistic missiles or nuclear armed opponents (states will still be deterred by nuclear warheads)

What does Waltz say about the political implications of BMD?

missile defense interferes with the logic of nuclear deterrence and increases the probability of nuclear war.

states may believe they can commit aggression without fearing nuclear retaliation. this lessens fears of escalation, undermining the ability of nuclear weapons to limit conflict.

What are the benefits of developing missile defense systems in general?

What are the benefits of developing missile defense systems for ballistic missile proliferation?

What are the benefits of developing missile defense systems for nuclear proliferation?

Why is ballistic missile defense problematic when dealing with a nuclear adversary?

• nuclear weapons cause extreme risk aversion, and BMD will not lessen that risk aversion. even if states have BMD, they will still be deterred by the prospect of of being hit with a nuclear armed ballistic missile

• even if the BMD is 100% reliable, nuclear armed adversaries will just move their nuclear warheads to delivery systems that BMD cannot counter (EX: long range torpedos, cruise missiles)

  • lead to nuclear arms races with states producing more nuclear warheads to overcome BMD

What is AI enabled nuclear command and control?

Why do proponents want the U.S. to adopt AI enabled nuclear command and control?

Why do critics say the U.S. adopting AI enabled nuclear command and control is a bad idea?