2024 General Election ʚɞ

Class 2024 General Election

Class dealignment. Many people who are upper class voted Labour (36%) and 23% of the working class voted Conservative. In 2024 those with a higher household income were more likely to vote Labour than those with a lower household income.

Region 2024 General Election

In 2024 University towns were more likely to vote Labour or Green, regardless of region. Brighton and Bristol were taken from the Conservatives and are now Green. Northern areas are traditionally more likely to vote Labour and Southern areas are more likely to vote Conservative. In 2024 more Southern areas voted Labour than usual. In ‘blue wall’ seats in the South-East of England, the vote share was 45% Labour, demonstrating a significant shift. London was 43% Labour and 10% Green.

Age 2024 General Election

43% of those 65+ voted Conservative in the 2024 election. 41% of young people voted Labour and 20% voted green. Although many argue that Reform are appealing more to young people, they only took 8% of the 18-24 vote.

Ethnicity 2024 General Election

46% of all ethnic minorities voted Labour in the 2024 election. Enoch Powell’s Rivers of Blood speech- Traditionally ethnic minorities would vote for more left-leaning parties. 16% of white people voted Reform compared to just 3% of all ethnic minorities.

Education 2024 General Election

The less high education you have, the more likely you are to vote for Reform UK (23%). 40% of students voted Labour in the 2024 election. 42% of those with a degree or higher voted Labour, and 18% voted Conservative.

Gender 2024 General Election

Little difference between the men and women in the 2024 election. Similar for both Labour and Conservative however men are significantly more likely to vote Reform (12% of women, 17% of men).

Tactical voting 2024 General Election

It is likely that Labour won such a large majority because of the incompetency of the previous Conservative government. Whilst Labour won 412 seats, the Conservatives lost 251 seats in the General Election. Examples of government incompetency: PartyGate, 3 PMs in 2022, Liz Truss crashing the economy with her mini-budget, political gaffs such as Rishi Sunak’s ‘Sky TV’ comment and a lettuce surviving longer than Truss. In 2024, almost 50% of Labour’s voters said that their intention was to ‘get the Tories out’.

Changes in how social factors influence the UK vote

• Class dealignment (Class is becoming a less significant factor in predicting how the electorate will vote)

• Party dealignment (less loyalty to a specific party, more about opposition to other parties e.g. in 2024 over 40% of those who voted chose a party that was not Labour or Conservative)

Rational choice theory

The idea that people vote for a political party not based on social factors but depending on which party is most likely to benefit them and their family

Valence issues

Areas in which all political parties broadly agree e.g. improving the cost of living and the NHS

Governing competence 2024 General Election

• The Conservative Government- In early 2024, the PM had a 75% disapproval rating. This is likely due to the failures of the Conservative government: The Mini Budget, The PartyGate Scandal, the failed Rwanda Scheme and public service deterioration e.g. the NHS was described as ‘on its knees’ by Sky News and other outlets from 2023-2024.

Leadership

Rishi Sunak- No longer appeared to be a strong leader. When announcing the General Election on May 22nd 2024, he was broadcast standing outside of Downing Street in the rain, with the song ‘Things Can Only Get Better’ audible in the background. This and a number of political gaffs made the Conservative leadership appear weak (Sky TV, the Rwanda Scheme etc).

Keir Starmer- Whilst Starmer has never been viewed as a charismatic leader, he did appeal to people somewhat, mainly because Sunak appeared out of touch. His consistent comments during the election campaign that his Mum was a nurse and his Dad was a toolmaker led to some ridicule, but perhaps also made him seem more connected to the British Public than Sunak (a clip resurfaced of Sunak saying he did not have working class friends).

The Manifesto

• The Labour Party: Labour appealed to many voters as they used a Ming Vase strategy, choosing not to promote many radical policies and instead focus on issues many people could agree with e.g. improving the NHS, improving the cost of living crisis, helping those in poverty, delivering tax cuts. (Promised over 40,000 NHS appointments, Great British Energy for cleaner energy, recruiting 6,500 new teachers, promised not to raise income tax or VAT or national insurance).

• The Conservatives: Pledged to increase the number of community police officers to 8,000, wanted to build 1.6million homes in Britain in 5 years, planned to send asylum seekers to Rwanda, end ‘low quality’ degrees, promised to increase defence spending. ‘Clear plan, bold action, secure future.’

The Campaign

The Labour Party- ‘Change’ slogan. Promised to secure borders, improve public services etc. Ming Vase strategy.

The Conservative Party- ‘Clear plan. Bold action. Secure future.’

Keir Starmer did significantly better in TV debates than Rishi Sunak. Sunak argued repeatedly that Labour did not have a plan.