Lecture 2 - Risk, Uncertainty & Decision Making

Managing a crisis

• Moral contagion escalation

• Narrative simplification under cognitive load

• Fundamental attribution error gets amplified

Moral contagion escalation

When a crisis begins it is rarely about the factual event. It becomes about moral positioning, identity signalling, and coalition building. People share outrage not to inform but to signal moral alignment. Moral-emotion language increases virality. This means that a crisis spreads because it is emotionally profitable to share.

Narrative simplification under cognitive load

During high-arousal situations cognitive complexity decreases, nuance collapses, and binary framing dominates. People default to heuristics and intent over context. This means that a lengthy explanation will be cognitively rejected. The public wants a simple moral frame.

Fundamental attribution error gets amplified

People ignore the situation (bad luck/accidents) and over-blame your character (bad intent/greed). Under stress, the public doesn't think you "made a mistake", they think you are a villain.