REFERENDUMS! Uses, UK examples (success + impact) and advantages and disadvantages

Definition and logistics of a referendum

• Vote where electorate can express their view on an issue of public policy

• Yes/no (or leave/remain in case of Brexit)

• Ad hoc- not set frequency like elections

Type of democracy associated with referendums

Direct

Sovereignty of referendums

• Not legally binding due to Plmtary sovereignty but unlikely to be ignored as they hold democratic/popular sovereignty

4 uses of referendums

1. Used to test public opinion, usually of already-passed-through-Plmt proposed legislation

2. Give legitimacy to decisions, like elections (only similarity)

3. Promote political change

4. Remove policies from immediate political agenda (2011 electoral reform)

Attlee’s views on referendums

‘the instrument of Nazism and facism’

Thatcher’s views on referendums

‘a device of dictators and demagogues’

Wilson’s views on referendums

‘contrary to our traditions’

Pyotr Kropotkin’s views on referendums

‘built up by the middle classes to hold their own against royalty…at the same time strengthening their sway over the workers’

Number of 🇬🇧 referendums pre-1997

4

3 referendums in the UK pre-1997

1. 1973- NI remaining part of the 🇬🇧 (boycotted by Catholic nationalists)

2. 1975- EEC membership

3. 1979- 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 and 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 devolution (didn’t gain enough votes to pass)

3 uses of referendums post-1997

1. Establish constitutional reforms

2. Promote democracy

3. Test public opinion

2011 AV ref importance

• Change to AV voting system?

• 2nd national referendum (1st: EEC membership 1975)

2 post-2011 significant referendums

1. 2014- Scottish independence

2. 2016- Brexit

Brexit (2016) — % MPs that wanted to remain; % that voted to trigger Article 50

• 80% MPs Remain

• 77% of MPs voted to trigger A50 to leave due to result of popular opinion

4 reasons referendums are held

1. Issue so crucial only popular vote can resolve it

2. Issue may cause conflict within the political system

3. Conflict needed to be solved within the wider community

4. Fundamental changes to the constitution are taking place (should not happen without ‘consent of the people’)

6 examples of referendums held because the issue was crucial

• 1973- NI remaining part of the UK (boycott)

• 1975- UK remaining in the EEC (national)

• 1998- implementation of Good Friday Agreement in NI

• 2011- AV used to elect MPs (national)

• 2014- Scottish independence

• 2016- Brexit

5 examples of referendums held because the issue may cause conflict within the political system

• 1973- NI remaining part of the UK (boycott)

• 1975- UK remaining in the EEC (national)

• 1998- implementation of Good Friday Agreement in NI

• 2014- Scottish independence

• 2016- Brexit

4 examples of referendums held to solve conflict within wider community

• 1973- NI remaining part of the UK (boycott)

• 1998- implementation of Good Friday Agreement in NI

• 2014- Scottish independence

• 2016- Brexit

10 examples of referendums held to legitimate constitutional change

• 1973- NI remaining part of the UK (boycott)

• 1975- UK remaining in the EEC (national)

• 1979, 1997- Scottish devolution (1979- invalid as needed 40% of whole electorate to vote, was only 30%)

• 1979, 1997- Welsh devolution

• 1997- tax-raising powers for Scottish Plmt

• 1998- introduction of London mayor and assembly

• 2011- Welsh assembly ability to make laws on all matters it has powers for

• 2011- AV used to elect MPs (national)

• 2014- Scottish independence

• 2016- Brexit

8 referendums with low turnout but decisive result

• 1973- NI remaining part of the UK (boycott)

• 1975- UK remaining in the EEC (national)

• 1979- Welsh devolution

• 1997- Scottish devolution

• 1997- tax-raising powers for Scottish Plmt

• 1998- introduction of London mayor and assembly

• 2011- Welsh assembly ability to make laws on all matters it has powers for

• 2011- AV used to elect MPs (national)

2 referendums with low turnout and small majority

• 1979- Scottish devolution (invalid as needed 40% of whole electorate to vote, was only 30%)

• 1997- Welsh devolution

1 referendum with high turnout and decisive result

• 1998- implementation of Good Friday Agreement in NI

2 referendums with high turnout but small majority

• 2014- Scottish independence

• 2016- Brexit

5 reasons for importance of high turnout and decisive result

• Legitimises decision

• Avoids tyranny of the minority

• Shows engagement and creates better informed electorate

• Settles long-standing debates

• Makes the govt more responsive (forces them to listen to public opinion)

Referendums and gov’t authority

• Govt should never call a referendum if uncertain about the answer as it’s a blow to their authority if the side they supported loses

4 failures of 2016 Brexit referendum

1. High turnout and lack of decisive vote

2. Undermined govt’s authority due to not following their public stance

3. Showed representatives weren’t in tune with public opinion

4. Brexit Bus was false campagning and manipulation

% MPs that wanted to remain v % public that wanted to remain

• 80% MPs

• 48% public

6 impacts of Brexit referendum

1. Cameron resigned

2. Complete change in govt’s stance on Europe

3. Many ministers dismissed/resigned

4. More calls for Scottish independence

5. Lack of preparation due to expectation of result caused political upheaval- May, Johnson

6. Caused a tyranny of the majority which led to an increase in hate crimes post-election

% 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 that voted to stay in 🇪🇺

62%

3 successes of 2014 Scottish independence referendum

1. Went the way the govt wanted it to

2. Extraordinarily high turnout in both the election and sub-elections showed high public participation and engagement

3. Small number of Scottish MPs in Westminster were unable to advocate for Scottish independence in the same way that an election result would influence the gov’t

3 impacts of 2014 Scottish independence referendum

1. Close outcome boosted SNP by boosting awareness despite the defeat

2. During the campaign all 3 major parties had to promise Scotland more powers → major power shift towards Edinburgh

3. Debate around the issue in Scotland increased political understanding

Referendums and political manipulation — 2014 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 independence

• Held after Glasgow hosted Commonwealth Games, week after Battle of Stirling Bridge Anniversary, year of 700th Battle of Bannockbum anniversary and enfranchised 16/17 year olds

2011 — 2 unsuccessful referendums

1. Welsh devolution referendum

2. AV referendum

Impact of Welsh devolution referendum

• Mirrored outcome of major party manifestos- that Welsh devolution unnecessary and unpopular

2011 AV referendum — 3 elements of relationship with electorate

• Electoral reform not issue that concerns the public

• Wasn’t in the public eye through any main parties

• Majority voting for FPTP due to lack of understanding

4 advantages of referendums

1. Purest form of democracy - pure will of the people

2. People are more informed to make decisions themselves and not rely on elected representatives

3. Promote participation (referendums often have very high turnout)

4. Solves social rifts (Good Friday Agreement)

5 disadvantages of referendums

1. Oversimplification of complex issues means people vote differently- some voters might take a holistic view while others make focus on the tiny details

2. Causes social rifts (Brexit, Scottish independence)

3. Cause tyranny of the majority

4. Undermines Plmtary sovereignty

5. Having representatives to make important decisions is the whole point of a representative democracy

1973 NI referendum — turnout

58%

1973 NI referendum — Y/N

• 99%/1%

1975 EEC membership — turnout

64%

1975 EEC membership — Y/N

• 68%/32%

1979 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 devolution — turnout

63%

1979 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 devolution — Y/N

• 52%/48%

  • Not accepted as 40% of WHOLE electorate needed to vote yes (not 52% of 63% (33%))

1979 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 devolution — turnout

58%

1979 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 devolution — Y/N

• 20%/80%

1997 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 devolution and tax-raising powers — turnout

60%

1997 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 devolution and tax-raising powers — Y/N, Y/N

• 74%/26%

• 63%/37%

1997 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 devolution — turnout

50%

1997 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 devolution — Y/N

50%/49%

1998 GFA — turnout

81%

1998 GFA — Y/N

71%29%

1998 London Mayor and Assembly — turnout

33%

1998 London Mayor and Assembly — Y/N

72%/28%

2011 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Assembly law-making powers — turnout

35%

2011 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Assembly law-making powers — Y/N

64%36%

2011 AV — turnout

42%

2011 AV — Y/N

32%/68%

2014 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 independence — turnout

85% (highest since 1910)

2014 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 independence — Y/N

45%/55%

2016 Brexit — turnout

72%

2016 Brexit — Y/N

48%/52%

2017 — % MPs elected on Brexit manifestoes

84%