First Past the Post

Plurality

When the winner of the election has won more votes than any other candidate, but not necessarily the majority of the votes

Safe seats

Seats where parties certain to win (20 000+ majoirty)

3 impacts of safe seats

1. Can breed complacency among voters and parties

2. Ignored by election campaigns (‘dyed in the wool’ voters) → apathy

3. Low turnout as a guaranteed winner- no point in voting if your party is sure to win, or no other parties have a chance

Marginal seats

• Seats where incumbent (current) party has a small majority so other parties have a chance

• Resources focused here as they allow for a swing in the vote share and could influence the overall outcome

1 impact of marginal seats

1. Turnout high as voters want to promote their own interests if they are unsure about the result

Winning % margin of x marginal seats in 2024

In 40 seats, less than 2%

Said marginal seats in 2019

• Relatively safe 2019

  • All but 7 won by >20% of the vote

How many of the most marginal seats in 2024 were won by the Tories in 2019?

33 of 40

How many of the safest seats had a Labour hold in 2024?

34/40

40 ‘safest seat’ margin

36.8% - 56.5%

Two-party system

A system in which two parties hold most of the votes and/or power

2 party features favoured by FPTP

1. Major parties

2. Nation-wide support (able to win constituencies, instead of just votes here and there)

1 example of a major party splitting

SDP (Social Democrat Party) split in 1981 from Labour

SDP outcome of 1983 general election — % vote and seats

• 25% of the vote (alliance with Liberals)

• Only 23 seats

‘Outsider’ parties finding it hard to break through — UKIP % vote v seats 2015

• 12.6% of the vote

• Only 1 seat

Combined Lab/Con % vote share in 2010

65% (post-war low)

2015 % support for parties other than the 3 main ones

25%

Combined Lab/Con % vote share in 2017

82%, largest since 1970

2017 % support for smaller parties

18%

2019 % support for smaller parties

25%

Combined Lab/Con % vote share in 2024

57.4%

Smaller parties % combined vote share and seats in 2024

• 52.6%

• 118 seats

Winner’s bonus

• ‘Landslide effect’

• Exaggeration of performance of most popular party, very common with FPTP

1 impact of winner’s bonus

• Tyranny of the majority

  • Gov’t has false sense of entitlement and impression of huge mandate (Johnson’s disregard for convention etc)

2 Conservative landslide victories

1983, 1987

2 Labour landslide victories

• 1997 - 63% seats, 43% votes

• 2024

2024 — L % seats and % votes

• 63% seats

• 34% votes

• Most disproportionate on record

2 examples of major party bias

• 1997-2010- Labour

  • 1997-2005- proportion of Tory seats lower than share of vote

• 2010- Tory 7% more votes than Labour, 19 seats short of majority

3 reasons for major party bias

1. Tactical voting (benefited Labour 1997-2005)

2. Constituency size differences

3. Turnout differences (turnout lower in Labour-held seats- Labour needed fewer votes to win seats 1997-2010)

2025 — electorate in L-won constituencies av. x lower than Tory + reason

• 2015- electorate in Labour-won constituencies av. 3850 lower than Tory-won

• Due to population mvmt from urban to suburban/rural areas

2015 — % turnout in L hold and C won seats

• 62% turnout in Labhold seats

• 69% in Torywon seats

2 reasons for discrimination against smaller parties (ones w/out geographical concentration of support)

1. Mechanics (no reward for coming second)

2. Psychology (credibility problems → ‘wasted vote’)

Libdem losses under FPTP — 1983 % vote % seats

• 25.4% vote

• 3.5% seats

1 smaller party with regional concentration — 2015 SNP % seats v % vote

• 95% Scottish seats

• 50% vote

Votes per seat in 2015 for C, UKIP and SNP

Tory - 34 243

UKIP - 3 881 129

SNP - 25 972

2024 — % of L seats with C 2nd

53%

2024 — % of C seats with L 2nd

83%

% seats with Labour & Con in 1st and 2nd — 2017

89%

% seats with Labour & Con in 1st and 2nd — 2019

71%

% seats with Labour & Con in 1st and 2nd — 2024

47%

Reform 2nd place 2024 number of constituencies

98 constituencies (89 of which 2nd to Labour)

Green 2nd place 2024 number of constituencies

40 constituencies

2015- UKIP — votes, seats, constituencies in 2nd

2nd in 120 constituencies

4m votes

1 seat

2 places in which FPTP is used

1. House of Commons

2. England & Wales for local govt