Long-term determinants of voting behaviour

Importance

• Affect multiple elections ad relevant to all elections

Fraction of “core” voters pre-1970

4/5

Fraction of “floating” voters pre-1970

1/5

2 aspects of voting patterns pre-1970

1. Stable

2. Habitual

2 reasons social factors affect voting

1. Socialisation importnat

2. Rationality — want to advance interests of own group

7 long-term factors

1. Class

2. Party loyalty

3. Gender

4. Age

5. Ethnicity

6. Education

7. Region

Pulzer (1967)

“Class is the basis of British party politics”

Years between which class alignment was strong

1974-2017

1964-6 — % of C2DE voters voting L

64%

1966 — % of ABC1 voters voting C

66%

1974 — % of ABC1 voting C

56%

1974 — % DE voting L

57%

1979 — % DE voting L

54%

1979 — % ABC1 voting C

54%

1997 — % DE voting L

55%

1997 — % ABC1 voting C

37%

2017 — % DE voting L

45%

2017 — % ABC1 voting C

42%

2024 — % C2 voting Reform

25%

1971 — % of voters supporting “natural” party

51%

1987 — % of voters supporting “natural” party

44%

2010 — % of voters supporting “natural” party

38%

2024 — C performance across classes

• The same (±1%pt)

2024 — L, LD and Green performance across classes

• Marginally better in ABC1

1974 and 2017 — % more DE voters voting L > C

• 35% → 9%

1974 and 2017 — % more ABC! voters voting C > L

• 37% → 4%

4 reasons for class dealignment

1. Changing class system (trad W/C → new W/C)

2. Cross-class locations

3. Emborgeoisiement (W/C think of selves as M/C and concerned w/material self-interest)

4. Sectorial divisions — private/public

Manual work force 1961-2013

• 58% → 29%

Consequence of class dealignment

• Shift in policies and ideas of parties (esp L) as forced to seek votes from ‘natural’ supporters of other parties

Partisanship pre-1970s

• Strong voting behaviour-party ID link due to primary and secondary socialisation

1964-6 — % of voters that IDed with a party

90%

1964-6 — % of voters that ‘very strongly’ IDed with a party

44%

1979 — % of voters that supported their ‘natural’ party

51%

2015 — ‘class voting’ % rise in 5 years

• 2% (to 40%)

1987 — % of voters that supported natural party

44%

2005 — % of voters that very strongly IDed with a party

10%

2010 — % of electorate ‘class voters’

38%

2017 — C performance by class

• Equally well between ABC1 and C2DE

2017 — % of W/C constituencies L

72%

2019 — C performance by class

• Did better among C2DE voters than ABC1 (48%/43%)

2019 — L performance by class

• The same — 33%

2019 — % of W/C constituencies L

53% (down by 19%)

2019 — % of W/C constituencies C

31% (from 13%)

4 reasons for partisan dealigment

1. Increased education so taking policies and issues more seriously

2. Media gives access to wider sources of info rather than just newspapers

3. Post-1980 main party idelogical change

4. Valence issues more important

Consequence of partisan dealignment

• Greater electoral volatility and more uncertainty about outcomes

  • Swings larger

  • Rise and fall of different parties