HUSH 2: The 80's & 90's Test: President Bush

The state of America in 1988; the 1988 election

• final stages of ending the cold war

• good economy

• George H.W Bush defeated Democratic Governor Michael Dukakis in the 1988 election

• Bush’s phrase was “Read my lips: no new taxes”.

• Democratic Party maintained control of the Senate and HOR

President Bush - Background

• grew up in a wealthy connecticut family

• he was the son of banker and U.S senator Prescott Bush

• enlisted in the Navy at 18 - became the youngest Naval pilot in the service

• after being shot down in the Pacific he was awarded the Distinguished Flying Cross

• attended Yale University - began a career in public service and business

• His Wife - Barbara - had six children

• married over 70 years

• In 1996 he was elected to the HOR in Texas - served two terms

• appointed to several important positions such as U.S ambassador to the United Nations - 1971, head of the Republican National Committee, U.S envoy to China, and the director of the CIA in 1976

• vice president for Reagan

Bush’s Inaugural Address

• it celebrated a "new breeze" of freedom, calling for a "kinder and gentler" nation, bipartisan unity, and the promotion of democracy worldwide. He emphasized national service, public-private partnerships, and moral leadership, marking a transition toward the end of the Cold War

The Cold War Landscape

• Reagan’s $2.8 trillion military buildup had strained the Soviet Economy, they could not keep pace

• Mikhail Gorbachev launched glasnost(openness) and perestroika (economic restructuring) to save the system, but the reforms backfired, leading to independence movements across Eastern Europe and the Soviet Republics

• Gorbachev stopped supporting communist governments in Eastern Europe

• Poland elects Lech Walesa, the leader of the Solidarity movement

• Communist governments also fall in Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Bulgaria, and Romania

• Bush’s central challenge: manage the Soviet decline carefully

The Fall of the Berlin Wall (November 9, 1989)

• The East German communist party announced citizens could cross borders freely, overwhelming checkpoints.

• November 9: The Berlin Wall, the ultimate Cold War symbol since 1961, was physically opened then dismantled by crowds.

• The East German government collapsed

• Bush’s reaction was deliberately restrained, he did not want to provoke Soviet hardliners

• Critics called him passive, Bush argued celebrating could destabilize Gorbachev and trigger a coup

• German reunification: October 3, 1990: Bush strongly supported it

• The reunified Germany joins NATO: one of Bush’s greatest foreign policy achievments

Bush & Gorbachev: Managing the Soviet collapse

• Malta summit (December 1989): Bush and Gorbachev declare the Cold War over

• In 1990, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania declared their independence

• Start I Treaty (July 31, 1991): both nations agreed to reduce their strategic nuclear warheads by 35% to 6,000 each

• Bush resisted calls to exploit Soviet weakness - he wanted to manage the transition, not cause Russian humiliation

• After a failed coup against Gorbachev, the rest of the soviet union dissolved.

• Gorbachev resigns on december 25, 1991.

• Boris Yeltsin takes over as President of Russia and disbands the communist party

• In 1992 Bush negotiated START II with Yeltsin to reduce warheads to 3,000 each

• 15 independent nations emerged from the old Soviet Union

• Freedom Support Act (1992): Congress authorized aid package to support democratic transitions in former Soviet states

• celebrated by millions but not everyone - KGB intelligence officer/LT Colonel Vladimir Putin saw this event as a tragedy. - resigned and began a career in politics.

China & Tiananmen Square

• Spring 1989: Chinese students held mass protests for democratization and freedom

• June 4, 1989: The hard line Chinese communist government crushed the protests in Tiananmen square, Beijing, and China killing hundreds and ending the brief flowering of an open political environment, the attack was televised live around the world

• Bush imposed limited sanctions and suspended military sales but refused to sever diplomatic ties or impose sanctions, and sent his National Security Advisor there just weeks after the massacre. Critics from both parties attacked Bush for prioritizing trade and geopolitics over human rights

• an era of intense repression began (and continues) in China

Operation Just Cause: The Invasion of Panama (december 1989)

• General Manuel Noriega: Panama’s leader since 1983, he had been a CIA asset but indicted by U.S courts in 1988 for drug trafficking

• Much of the international cocaine trade moved through Panama with his cooperation

• 1989 elections: Noriega's party lost, he annulled results and attacked opposition leaders

• Noriega declared Panama “in a state of war” with the U.S, a U.S marine was killed at a checkpoint

• December 20, 1989: 28,000 U.S troops invaded: the largest U.S combat operation since Vietnam and quickly overwhelmed Panamanian forces

• Noriega was convicted in U.S federal court in 1992 on 8 counts of drug trafficking, racketeering, and money laundering.

• International reaction: UN condemned invasion, Panama’s civilian casualties estimated at several hundred

• U.S troops remain until a new democratic government was formed

The Gulf War

• August 2, 1990: Iraqi President Saddam Hussein invaded and annexed Kuwait, seizing its vast oil reserves

• UN Security Council passed a resolution condemning the invasion within hours of the attack

• Bush used personal diplomacy to build a coalition of 34 nations, leading to Operation Desert Shield (over 500,000 U.S. troops deployed to Saudi Arabia beginning, August 1990

• The Arab league condemned the invasion: Egypt, Syria, Saudi Arabia, UAE all joined the coalition against Iraq

• In November 1990 the UN authorized all necessary means to expel Iraq if it didn’t withdraw by January 15, 1991

• U.S congress voted to authorize force: Senate 52-47, House 250-183

• Saddam Hussein refused to leave Kuwait by January 15, 1991 - the deadline set by the UN.

Operation Desert. Storm (January 17-February 28, 1991)

• January 17, 1991: Air campaign began, CNN broadcast the war live to the world

• Precision guided munitions used at an unprecedented scale: smart bombs changed the public image of warfare

• Ground War launched February 24, 1991: left Hook maneuver encircled Iraqi forces in Kuwait

• 100 hour ground war: Iraqi army collapsed, Kuwait liberated

• Bush announced ceasefire after 100 hours, Saddam Hussein was expelled from Kuwait but left in power in Baghdad

• Coalition casualties: 292 U.S killed, 467 wounded, Iraqi military deaths estimated at 20,000-35,000

• Bush’s approval rating:89% in March 1991: the highest for any President since polling began.

Bush’s “New World Order: A Post Cold War Vision

• Bush articulated a new foreign policy vision: nations working together through international law and the UN: a new world order where diverse nations are drawn together in common cause to achieve the universal aspirations of mankind

• Emphasized multilateralism: acting through coalitions and international bodies, not unilaterally.

Bush's biggest structural problem

Democrats controlled both the House and Senate for all four years of his Presidency. This meant every major domestic goal required bipartisan compromise. Bush was good at making those deals, but they often came at a political cost.

The Americans with Disabilities Act (1990)

• it was the most sweeping civil rights legislation since the Civil Rights Act of 1964. It prohibited discrimination against the roughly 43 million Americans living with physical or mental disabilities in virtually every area of public life: employment, public services, transportation, and telecommunications.

• Employers were required to make "reasonable accommodations" for disabled workers.

• Public buildings and transit systems had to be made physically accessible: ramps, elevators, accessible restrooms.

• Businesses open to the public could no longer turn away customers with disabilities. Bush called it "the world's first comprehensive declaration of equality for people with disabilities."

• The law passed with overwhelming bipartisan support: 91-6 in the Senate, 377-28 in the House.

The Clean Air Act Amendments (1990)

• it built on the first bill passed in 1963 and subsequent bills in 1970 and

1977.

• The 1990 amendments focused on three aspects of clean air: reducing urban smog, curbing acid rain, and eliminating industrial emissions of toxic chemicals.

• Congress passed the bill with significant support, and on

• November 15, 1990, President Bush signed it.

• The Clean Air Act Amendments were the most comprehensive environmental legislation in American history up to that point.

• The law dramatically tightened federal standards for urban smog, acid rain, toxic chemical emissions, and ozone-depleting substances.

• acid rain was cut by roughly 50% by the year 2000.

• The law also required the phaseout of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) to protect the ozone layer and set strict deadlines for 189 major cities to meet air quality standards.

• Bush's willingness to champion environmental regulation was a notable departure from

Reagan's anti-regulation stance.

• Economists estimated that the law cost industry about $25 billion a year but

produced roughly $50 billion in annual health benefits, a net positive for the country.

The Civil Rights Act of 1991

• it overturned several conservative Supreme Court rulings that had weakened employment discrimination protections.

• It strengthened workers ability to sue for discrimination

the Immigration Act of 1990:

• it reformed the legal immigration system, raising annual cap on legal immigrants by 40%, creating new categories for employment-based visas, and establishing the diversity immigrant visa program (the green card lottery), which awarded 55,000 visas per year to people from underrepresented countries

• The Ryan White CARE Act (1990)

• committed $220 million in federal funds to HIV/AIDS treatment for low-income patients, marking the largest federal response to the epidemic up to that point.

• It was named after Ryan White, an Indiana teenager who contracted HIV through a blood transfusion and became a national symbol in the 1980s for the fight against AIDS-related stigma and discrimination after being barred from attending school.

• His courage and public advocacy helped humanize the crisis and mobilize public support, leading to greater awareness and federal action to expand access to care.

The Oil Pollution Act of 1990,

• it passed in the wake of the Exxon Valdez disaster (when an oil tanker ran aground in Alaska and spilled 11 million gallons of crude oil), strengthened the EPA's ability to prevent and respond to catastrophic spills.

• A trust fund financed by a tax on oil was created to pay for future cleanups.

• The National Affordable Housing Act (1990)

• created federal investment partnerships for affordable housing construction.

• Child Care & Development Block Grant (1990):

• $750 million federal investment in childcare for working families.

• National Literacy Act (1991):

• Established national literacy goals and adult education programs.

• NAFTA negotiations (1991-92):

• Bush negotiated the North American Free Trade Agreement with Canada and Mexico, eliminating most tariffs on trade between the three countries. He signed it in November 1992, though it was ratified by Congress under Clinton in 1993.

David Souter (1990)

• Bush's first nominee, David Souter of New Hampshire, sailed through Senate confirmation 90-9.

• Conservatives expected Souter to be a reliably conservative voice. He wasn't.

• Once on the Court, Souter proved to be a moderate-to-liberal justice, consistently siding with the Court's liberal bloc on key decisions.

Clarence Thomas (1991): Controversy and Confirmation

• Bush's second nominee, Clarence Thomas, was chosen to replace Thurgood Marshall, the legendary civil rights attorney who had argued Brown v. Board of Education and was the first African American justice in history.

• Thomas, himself an African American and a committed conservative, would become only the second Black justice on the Court

• The confirmation hearing was one of the most dramatic in American history. Anita Hill, a law professor and former colleague of Thomas's at the Department of Education and the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC), accused him of repeated sexual harassment during the time he was her superior. Her testimony was vivid, graphic, and deeply uncomfortable for the all-male Senate Judiciary Committee.

• He was appointed and he still serves on the supreme court today

The Economy: What Push Inherited

• During the 1980s, Reagan had cut taxes dramatically while also increasing military spending, a combination that caused the national debt to nearly triple, from $994 billion in 1981 to $2.9 trillion in 1989.

• the savings and loan (S&L) industry was on the brink of collapse. Deregulation in the 1980s had allowed S&L banks to make risky real estate loans, and when those loans went bad, roughly 1,000 savings and loan institutions failed. The federal government had to step in to bail them out, a rescue that ultimately cost taxpayers well over $100 billion, making it the most expensive financial scandal in American history at that point.

The Economy: “Read My Lips: No New Taxes”

• By 1990, however, the pledge had become a trap. The deficit was spiraling out of control, and the automatic spending cuts required by law threatened both defense and domestic programs. Democrats, who controlled Congress, refused to cut spending without a corresponding increase in taxes. Bush faced an impossible choice: break his promise or watch the deficit explode.

• He chose to break the promise. In October 1990, Bush agreed to a bipartisan budget deal, the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act, that included both spending cuts and tax increases. The top income tax rate went from 28% to 31%. Gasoline taxes increased by five cents per gallon. New luxury taxes were imposed on yachts, furs, and jewelry. Medicare taxes went up.

• The political fallout was devastating. Conservatives felt betrayed. Pat Buchanan, a fiery conservative commentator and former Nixon and Reagan speechwriter, launched a primary challenge against Bush in 1992 on this issue alone. The rebellion exposed deep fractures in the Republican Party.

The Recession of 1990-1991

• A recession officially began in July 1990 and lasted until March 1991, relatively mild by historical standards.

• But the economic pain didn't end when the recession technically did.

• Unemployment kept rising even after the recovery began, peaking at 7.8% in the spring of 1992, right in the middle of an election year.

• High-profile layoffs in the defense industry (as Cold War military spending was cut back) and in manufacturing hit the suburban middle class hard. Real estate values declined and consumer confidence collapsed.

The Los Angeles Riots (1992)

• On May 7, 1991, Los Angeles police officers stopped African American motorist Rodney King after a high-speed chase. What happened next, the officers beating King while he lay on the ground, was captured on videotape by a bystander and broadcast around the world. The footage shocked the nation and seemed to many to be undeniable evidence of police brutality.

• On April 29, 1992, the verdict came in: all four officers were acquitted. The reaction in Los Angeles was immediate and explosive. Beginning that evening, the city erupted in the worst urban violence the United States had seen in decades. Widespread looting, arson, and assault spread across the city. By the time order was restored five days later on May 3, 63 people had died, 2,383 had been injured, more than 12,000 had been arrested, and over $1 billion in property damage had been done. The National Guard and the U.S. military were deployed to restore order.

• The riots exposed deep fractures in American society: racial inequality, strained relations between communities of color and law enforcement, and simmering economic frustration in inner cities. For Bush, the events further complicated an already difficult election year, raising questions about his leadership on racial justice and domestic unrest.

The Republican Primary: George H. W. Bush vs. Pat Buchanan

• By 1992, George Bush was in deep political trouble. The recession had dragged his approval ratings from a post-Gulf War high of nearly 90% all the way down to 29%. He faced challenges from multiple directions at once.

• The Republican Primary: George H. W. Bush vs. Pat Buchanan

• Pat Buchanan challenged Bush from the right, attacking him for the 1990 tax increase, his perceived neglect of social conservatives, and his focus on foreign policy at the expense of domestic issues. Buchanan's themes

  • "America First" nationalism, opposition to NAFTA, anti-immigration sentiment, and aggressive culture war rhetoric, foreshadowed political movements that would resurface decades later.

• In the New Hampshire primary, Buchanan won a stunning 37% of the vote and Bush had the worst primary performance by a sitting president since 1968. Bush later secured the nomination, but the damage was done: conservative enthusiasm for Bush was low, and the primary exposed his vulnerability.

Ross Perot: The Billionaire Populist

• The wildcard of 1992 was H. Ross Perot, a Texas billionaire who entered the race as an independent in February, tapping into voter fury over the national debt, political dysfunction, and NAFTA. Perot's core message was simple: Washington was broken, both parties were failing the American people, and the $4 trillion national debt was a crisis demanding immediate action.

• Perot was an unconventional candidate who used his personal fortune to buy 30-minute television "infomercials," complete with charts and graphs, that became an unexpected cultural phenomenon. His most famous line: NAFTA would create a "giant sucking sound" of American jobs moving to Mexico. He dropped out of the race in July, citing Republican "dirty tricks," then dramatically re-entered in October.

• Despite the bizarre arc of his campaign, Perot won 18.9% of the popular vote, the best third-party performance since Theodore Roosevelt's 27.4% in 1912. He won zero electoral votes, but his candidacy energized disaffected voters, drove up turnout, and shaped the entire debate. Bush later said that allowing Perot into the presidential debates was his single biggest strategic error of the campaign.

Bill Clinton: The Comeback Kid

• William Jefferson Clinton, the 45-year-old Governor of Arkansas, emerged from a crowded Democratic field despite a rocky start. Early in the primary season, he was battered by allegations of a marital affair and questions about whether he had dodged the Vietnam-era draft. He survived both controversies, dubbing himself "the Comeback Kid" after a strong second-place finish in the New Hampshire primary.

• Clinton positioned himself as a "New Democrat:" centrist, pro-free trade, pro-welfare reform, and fiscally responsible. Clinton also proved adept at reaching voters in new ways. His appearance playing the saxophone on The Arsenio Hall Show, wearing sunglasses, introduced him to younger voters in a way Bush couldn't match.

• His ability to connect emotionally with voters: "I feel your pain" became his signature phrase, contrasted sharply with Bush's more formal, detached style.

• Clinton picked Tennessee Senator Al Gore as his running mate, another young Southern centrist who doubled down on the generational change message.

The 1992 Election Results

• Clinton swept the South, Great Lakes region, and West Coast.

• Exit polls confirmed the campaign's core insight: 43% of voters cited the economy as the top issue, while only 8% prioritized foreign policy, the one area where Bush had a clear advantage.

• Clinton won 100% of the electoral votes from states where voters rated the economy as their top concern.

• The three-way presidential debates, the first of their kind in modern history, reinforced Clinton's edge: Bush was criticized for checking his watch during a town hall debate, a moment that seemed to confirm everything voters feared about his disengagement.