Week 12 - US Elections: Processes, Laws, and Political Dynamics

What is the primary purpose of elections in a political system?

Elections serve as a key mechanism for managing conflicts among different interests to prevent them from escalating.

What does the US constitution say about voting and election conduct?

Article 1, Section 4, Clause 1 says that the states have primary authority over the administration of elections, but permits congress to make laws to alter regulations except those on the places of choosing Senators

Which constitutional amendment provides the basis for states to manage election conduct?

The 10th Amendment, which reserves powers not explicitly granted to the federal government to the states, which is why the US has 50 different elections systems each composed of 3,000 election jurisdictions

What does it mean to canvas?

To account for, count, and aggregate the results for all the votes cast in a given election

What is election certification?

The process through which the canvas is concluded, including the final/official confirmation of aggregated vote totals from an election, which varies from state to state

What are the three specific standards Congress has set for federal elections? (Examples of election law Congress has made that tends to impose minimum standards on the conduct of elections that protect rights)

Congress sets the date (first Tuesday after the first Monday in November), establishes minimum standards to protect rights, and enforces laws like the Voting Rights Act.

List four types of elections.

Primary, general, runoff, special

What is a primary election?

An election held to determine a party's nominees for a partisan public offices. Note that 60% of states have party registration

What is the difference between a plurality and a majority system in general elections?

A plurality system awards the win to the candidate with the most votes, while a majority system requires over 50% of the vote, often triggering a runoff if no candidate reaches that threshold. The purpose of both (general election) is to choose all or most members of a governing body

What is a runoff election, and what is its modern justification?

A second election held to determine a winner when no candidate in the first election met the required threshold for victory held after primary and/or general elections. Its modern justification, flawed due to significantly low turnout, is that it ensures the candidate has the support of the majority of the population

What was the historical motivation for adopting runoff elections in the American South?

It was used to dilute African-American political power by ensuring white voters could coalesce around a single candidate in a runoff to prevent a black candidate from winning with a plurality.

What is a special election?

An election to fill the remainder of the term an elected official who has vacated their seat early, and/or an election held outside the regular election calendar. State laws dictate how and when these occur. Types include: elections on specific measures and bond elections

What is the purpose of a bond election?

To allow a local taxing entity to borrow against future tax revenue, which effectively increases taxes for the voters.

List types of primaries.

Open, closed, and nonpartisan/jungle

What is an 'open primary'?

A primary election in which voters are not required to declare a party affiliation, but choose which primary to vote in

How is Texas's primary system classified?

Texas is considered a hybrid system, functioning as an open primary unless the race goes to a runoff, at which point voters are restricted to the party they chose in the initial primary.

What is a 'jungle' or nonpartisan primary?

A system where all candidates appear on the same ballot regardless of party affiliation.

What is a 'closed' primary?

A primary election where only voters who are registered members of a specific political party can vote to select that party's candidates for the general election

What characterizes a presidential election cycle?

It occurs every four years, with all of the house, a third of the senate, half of the Texas senate, and all of the Texas house up for reelection. Ten states also choose their governors during these years.

What characterizes a midterm election cycle?

It occurs in even-numbered years between presidential elections, with US House seats, 1/3 of the Senate, and various state-level offices up for reelection, typically with lower voter turnout.

What are 'off-cycle' elections? (Eg. Constitutional Amendment Elections, school board, city council, bond elections, tax ratification during off cycle)

Elections held in odd-numbered years (so they are not overshadowed by presidential and midterm elections if they were held during those significantly better funded cycles) for local offices like city councils or school boards, often resulting in the lowest voter turnout.

How can you get on the ballot?

Become a party nominee by filling out a form with the party, paying a fee, meeting some requirements, then win at the primary or nominating convention (more common among third parties, they also want to show a demonstrated level of support either through a threshold of voters in a prior election or a certain number of signatures). In TX, for statewide offices, you need signatures totaling 1% of the total votes cast for governor in the most recent gubernatorial election.

What is the primary barrier for third-party candidates getting on the ballot?

They lack automatic ballot access and must demonstrate support through signatures or prior election thresholds.

Describe the election calendar for Texas.

Elections for all statewide officials in TX occur during midterm years, the even numbered year between presidential elections. Texans also vote on the whole TX congressional delegation, state house delegation, and 1/2 of voters have an election for the state senator in their district. Some years there are senate elections and some years the gubernatorial election is the highest office on the ballot (top of the ticket). Also, there are regular constitutional amendment elections during odd numbered years.

What is 'voter fatigue' and what is its potential consequence?

Voter fatigue occurs when elections are held too frequently, leading to low turnout, which can grant a minority of the population disproportionate political power.

What are three factors that make Texas a 'hard state' to vote in?

Strict voter ID laws, limited access to absentee/mail-in voting, and increased voting-related punishments.

What is electoral accountability? List its four factors

The principle that citizens can hold elected officials responsible for their actions by rewarding or punishing them in elections based on voter assessment, capacity for sanctions and rewards, clarity of responsibility, and institutional context/support

What is voter assessment?

Assessments by voters based on their policies, actions, character, and overall results (economy and crisis)

How does electoral accountability depend on a capacity for sanctions and rewards?

Voters need to be able to use their votes to elect an incumbent for good performance or remove them for bad performance. Key incentive for elected officials to act in the best interest of their constituents. Elections need to be competitive (alternatives) for this to work.

How does electoral accountability depend on a clarity of responsibility?

Voters need to be able to accurately and clearly attribute responsibility for policy outcomes to specific political actors through reliable information about what they are doing, so they can use it for their assessments. Interpretation and civic knowledge.

What is retrospective voting?

A form of voting where citizens judge an incumbent's performance based on past results, such as economic conditions or policy outcomes.

Why is retrospective voting the most common form of voter assessment?

It is generally easier for voters to evaluate past performance than to predict future policy outcomes.

What is prospective voting?

When voters make their decisions based on their expectations of how candidates will perform in the future

What is the primary incentive for elected officials to act in the best interest of their constituents?

The desire for re-election, which depends on positive performance assessments by the voters.

What is government responsiveness?

The ability and willingness of a government to address the needs, concerns and preferences of its citizens based on the expectation that elected officials will adjust their behavior and policy decisions based on the preferences of their constituents.

What is a key characteristic of democracy according to Robert Dahl?

The continued responsiveness of the government to the preferences of its citizens, considered as political equals

What information do elected officials use to be responsive to voters? When is responsiveness at its strongest?

Public opinion polling, constituent outreach, and critics/rivals. It's strongest when officials believe that their re-election depends on listening to all voters, requiring elections that ensure their preferences are being fairly accounted for

How does gerrymandering impact election accountability?

It decreases election competitiveness by drawing districts to favor a specific party, which can reduce the perceived responsiveness of elected officials because it makes primary elections the most or only competive elections

How does low voter turnout impact responsiveness?

May lead elected officials to give more weight to donors or interest groups than the general public who they perceive as uninterested.

How does party homogenization and polarization impact responsiveness?

Voters stick with parties no matter what, decreasing officials fear of accountability because they can count on their constituents not to vote for the other party (negative partisanship)

How does misinformation impact government responsiveness?

They lead to a misapplication of the mechanics of accountability since don't have the information they need to evaluate or make judgements based on false claims. From the perspective of elected officials, it is easier to avoid accountability by relying on secrecy, misinformation, or disinformation (intentional misinformation).

What is the significance of the 17th Amendment regarding special elections?

It requires governors to initiate the process for filling vacancies in the US Senate.

Why do officials rely on more than just elections to gauge constituent preferences?

Because relying solely on elections is risky; if an official misinterprets constituent desires, they may be removed from office before they can adjust their behavior.

What is the general impact of gerrymandering and partisan sorting on government?

Both have created many safe seats where incumbents rarely face serious challenges. Note that every cycle for the last several elections, the majority of house and senate seats have not seen competitive general election races, leading a lot of voters to feel the system is broken

What is the 'vicious cycle' regarding voter turnout and responsiveness?

When voters feel their interests are ignored, they are less likely to vote. This strengthens advantaged candidates, which further decreases the perceived responsiveness of the system, leading to even lower turnout.

What is a 'trifecta' in state government?

A trifecta occurs when one party holds control of both houses of the state legislature and the governorship.

Why might parties with trifecta control struggle to implement policies favored by the general public?

They fear that their own partisans will punish them for deviating from party lines, driven by the strength of negative partisanship.

What is a positive argument for the process of redistricting in the US?

Redistricting helps uphold the principle of 'one person, one vote' and ensures equal representation by redrawing districts every decennial census.

What happens if a state fails to conduct redistricting after a census?

The courts will intervene to redraw the districts before the next election.

What is a voting base (base voters)?

The core group of voters expected to consistently back a political party and its candidates based on past voting patterns

What are persuadable voters?

Individuals who are open to considering multiple candidates in an election and have not yet made a final decision

Describe campaign targeting strategies for their base, persuadable voters, and the opposition.

Mobilize the base (with the same tools as persuadable voters but additionally through an email list), persuade the persuadable (with the same tools as the voter base but through TV/radio ads rather than emails), and the opposition gets nothing

What is an electoral campaign?

The competitive efforts by candidates and political parties to win voter support in the period preceding an election.

Describe the candidate and their message element of campaign strategy.

A theme articulates why a candidate is running and why a voter should choose them, typically combining positive and negative tones to distinguish the candidate from opponents and provide clear answers to content

What data points do modern campaigns use to target voters, with the goal of mobilizing the base and convincing persuadable voters?

Campaigns use geography, demographics, and voting history (commercially available data) to target specific groups for outreach via canvassing, phone banking, direct mail, and digital media (non-traditional methods: text, email, and social media, traditional: door to door canvassing, phone banking, and direct mail).

Why are campaigns often risk-averse when using granular voter data?

Campaigns fear that being too specific in their messaging might alienate potential voters, so they often stick to general or highly negative messaging.

What is the role of a campaign consultant firm?

They are hired experts who provide strategic support, execute campaign activities, and often act as insiders with significant influence over campaign strategy.

What is the function of a 'leadership PAC'?

These are PACs (political action committees) formed by prominent elected officials to support other candidates and campaigns, helping to build influence within their party.

How do campaigns manage their finances?

The finance team raises funds from individuals, PACs, and party organizations, increasingly relying on small-dollar donors to manage the campaign budget.

List a few outside components of campaigns.

Parties, interest groups and their PACs, and campaign committees

Why do political scientists often question the importance of campaigns?

Many elections are not competitive, and outcomes are often predictable based on the partisan distribution of a district and the durability of party attachments.

Where do presidential campaigns focus most of their time and resources?

They focus on a handful of 'swing' states where the outcome is not already determined by the partisan distribution of the electorate.

What is 'negative partisanship'?

It is the phenomenon where voters are more motivated by their dislike or fear of the opposing party than by their support for their own party.

How has the duration and cost of US campaigns changed over time?

Campaigns have become significantly longer and more expensive, with billions of dollars spent in recent election cycles.

Why do we tend to know the outcome of any given election before votes are even cast?

Because of incumbency advantage: the benefits that current officeholders have over challengers in elections, making it easier for them to win reelection (although the numbers may be inflated, the reelection rates for incumbents are regularly over 80% on average)

What is the difference between traditional and non-traditional campaign outreach methods?

Traditional methods include door-to-door canvassing and phone banking; non-traditional methods include text, email, and social media.

What is the primary goal of a campaign's finance team?

To raise sufficient funds from various sources to cover the high costs of modern campaigning and to manage the campaign's budget.

How does 'partisan sorting' contribute to the existence of safe seats?

Partisan sorting groups like-minded voters together, creating districts where one party has such a large advantage that the incumbent rarely faces a serious challenge.

What is the main advantage of using granular data in campaigns?

It allows campaigns to create individual-level predictions of a voter's likelihood to vote and to interact with them on issues of specific concern.

Are outside actors (like PACs) allowed to coordinate directly with campaigns?

In many cases, they are barred from direct coordination, though they often find loopholes in the law to engage in independent advertising and issue advocacy.

What are the three primary fundamental factors that predict election outcomes independent of campaigns?

Incumbency status, presidential approval ratings, and the state of the economy.

Why does a party's hold on executive office typically weaken over time?

Governing is difficult, campaign promises are hard to fulfill, and executives often face choices between two undesirable outcomes.

How does the economy influence incumbent success during an election year?

A poor economy generally hurts incumbents, while a strong economy generally helps them.

Why do political scientists argue that campaigns have limited impact on election outcomes?

Because factors like party ID, incumbency, and the economy create a largely fixed electorate, leaving little room for campaigns to shift the result.

Define 'mobilization' in the context of political campaigns.

The act of motivating existing partisans to turn out and vote for their party's candidate.

What is 'persuasion' in a campaign strategy?

The effort to convince undecided voters or partisans of the opposing party to support a candidate.

Why are modern campaigns increasingly focused on mobilization rather than persuasion?

Strong partisanship and negative partisanship make it extremely difficult to convince voters from the opposing side to switch their support.

What is 'issue ownership' in political campaigns?

The historical association of a specific party with certain issues, giving them a perceived advantage when those issues are at the forefront of an election.

What is a wedge issue?

An issue a campaign deliberately uses to create division in the opposing party's coalition

Why do campaigns need to work to make sure their voters show up even though their reach is limited?

Because if they don't define the issue space and persuade voters, then their opponent will

What are the three primary goals of campaign finance laws?

To limit corruption (prevent public decision-making from being influenced by contributions from individual groups), provide transparency, encourage public trust (that the laws make competition more fair), and regulate who can give money, how much, and how to report it

What was the primary purpose of the Federal Election Campaign Act (FECA) of 1971?

To establish rules for contribution limits and require candidates to disclose their donors and spending. Ammended three times.

What are the main components of federal campaign finance laws?

Contribution limits (for individuals, PACs, and national party committees), candidate spending rules (unlimited personal funds to spend, but must be reported to the FEC), and disclosure and transparency (FEC maintains a public database for campaign contributions and expenditures)

What is the role of the Federal Election Commission (FEC)?

Established in 1974 (post watergate reforms to the FECA), it enforces federal campaign finance rules, including contribution limits and disclosure requirements. (3,500$ limit for individuals per election to a candidate, PACs 5,000, national party committes formed by the big national parties 62000 and more if they use special accounts)

What was the significance of the Supreme Court case 'Buckley v. Valeo'?

It struck down certain provisions of the FECA, leading to the redefinition of campaign finance rules and the eventual second amendment to the act in 1976.

Describe the citizens united ruling and its aftermath.

The 2010 ruling granted corporations and unions first amendment rights to unlimited political spending independent of campaigns base, leading to the rise of super PACs that raise and spend unlimited funds without direct campaign coordination, although the standard of coordination is vague and the PACs often outspend the candidates themselves

Describe the criticism of the Citizens United ruling.

Wealthy donors dominate election spending, raising concerns about money's disproportionate political influence, and it made meeting the goals of federal campaign finance laws harder because it weakened election transparency and regulatory fairness.

What are 'Dark Money' groups?

Organizations (often 501c4s) that funnel money into elections through Super PACs that aren't required to disclose the original donors, obscuring who is responsible for political messaging and undermining transparency

Why does the FEC have limited oversight regarding modern campaign digital media?

The FEC has no jurisdiction over social media and other non-broadcast digital media, creating a gap in transparency.

What is a consequence of candidates relying heavily on PACs and outside groups for funding?

Candidates rely more on national networks and out-of-state donors than their own constituents, incentivizing more partisan and nationalized messaging.

Describe some trends in fundraising and spending.

Record campaign fundraising, PAC and outside group influence, top donor concentration, and nationalized campaign finance

Describe features of the Texas campaign expenditure landscape.

The Texas Ethics Commission collects state campaign contribution records, no contribution limits, some efforts to manage goals of limited corruption, transparency and public trust, but controbutions and expenditures on the rise

Why can Texas maintain its own campaign finance laws?

Due to the principle of federalism, which allows states to set their own regulations.

What restriction do Texas legislators face regarding campaign contributions?

They cannot accept contributions while the legislature is in session to limit corruption and maintain public trust.

What is the requirement for lobbyists in Texas regarding expenditures?

They must report any expenditures involving contact with elected officials or their staff.

Why is Texas often described as the 'wild west' of campaign spending?

Because state-level rules are generally looser than federal regulations, leading to significantly higher spending levels.

What is the 'money-as-speech' vs protecting democracy debate?

The legal and political conflict where the protection of free speech (allowing unlimited spending) is weighed against the goal of protecting democracy (limiting spending to prevent corruption) in which the money as speech debate often wins out

What does 'partisan activation' mean in a campaign context?

The process of ensuring that identified partisans are motivated enough to actually turn out and vote on election day.

How does the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (BCRA) of 2002 relate to FECA?

It served as the third major amendment to the FECA, further regulating campaign finance.

What is the primary argument critics make against unlimited campaign spending?

Critics argue that it distorts democracy by providing an unfair advantage to the speech of those with greater financial means.