S&C - 8 - A International Landscape

Chinese dynamic culture construct

• Periods of unification → cultural expansion

  • territorial expansion

  • contact over land: the silk road

  • contact over sea: zheng he

• periods of disunity → retreat of chinese culture

CCP Military Structure Republic

• 1928

  • Chinese Workers and Peasants - Red Army

• 1934

  • Red Army:

    • First Red Front Army

    • Second Red Front Army

    • Fourth Red Front Army

• 1937

  • Second United Front

    • incorporated into KMT army

      • Eight Route Army

      • New Fourth Army

• 1946

  • People’s Liberation Army

• 1949

  • PLA becomes CCP army branch

Military in the PRC

• The party commands the gun

  • initial problems:

    • How to make competent?

    • how to control the army?

• Army must help build up the country

army answers to the politburo/CCCCP not the gov

• First half 50’s - Peng Dehuai

  • Transforming the guerilla army into competent army with help USSR

• Second half 50’s - Lin Biao

  • GLF

  • Connecting the people

• First half 60’s - Lei Feng

  • prep Cult Rev

• 1975

  • CMC established to balance power in CCP

Army reform Deng Xiaoping

• part of the 4 modernizations

  • Stricter control of Party over army

  • Higher efficiency

    • Reduction soldier 4 mil → 3 mil

    • one year military service aged between 17 and 22

  • Developing modern armed forces

  • 1982 → People’s Armed Forces

    • Intelligence, border and coast guard, fire brigade

    • 1.5 mil

  • 1985 → University for National Defense

  • Reform defense industry

  • Military rapprochement to Europe and US

Chinese Army Today

• CCP is more important than the state

• growing budget

  • Quality over quantity

    • troop reduction but more money to modernization efforts

• There is conscription but not enforced cuz quotas are already filled

• PAP peoples armed forces does not answer to state council anymore only to CCP since 2018

1988 military regions

7

• Lanzhou

• Chengdu

• Nanjing

• Beijing

• Shenyang

• Guangzhou

• Jinan

2016 military regions

5

• Western

• Southern

• Eastern - facing Taiwan and South E

• Northern - facing Korea

• Central - Capital and assistance

These changes make sense because PRC changed strategic interest to beyond its borders to include maritime security and protection of overseas interests and rising importance of new forms of warfare (cyber, space,…)

Djibouti

• 2017

• First Chinese overseas military base

  • Also have permanently manned base in pakistan

• 4 reasons

  • Logistics base for peacekeeping, evacuation and antipiracy

  • Anti Piracy and Gulf of Aden operations

  • Protecting Belt and Road trade routes

    • Djibouti is part of String of pearl

      • Network of ports from China to Africa

  • Economic influences

    • Huge investments into djibouti

    • But creates debt dependence

      • rose 70%-80% of gdp

        • most of if Chinese

Territorial disputes

• in total since 49’ → 20 disputes

• Most important

  • India 1962

  • Russia 1969

  • Vietnam

  • South China Sea

Internal Risks CMC - party

• Slowdown in economic growth could prompt renewed debate about CMC budget

• Rising social instability could lead to terrorism and shift attention from external to internal security

• Unrest in regions like Tibet and Xinjiang may also redirect personnel

• CMC - party relations are crucial

External Risks CMC - party

• Deterioration of relation with US could intensify security

  • in context trade, technology, rivarly,…

• India relations are still sensitive

  • Projects in Pakistan

    • India perceives this as destabilizing

• Armed conflict in neighbouring countries

• N-Korea

  • Friendship treaty 61

    • renewed in 21’

  • Now also Russia influence in NK

• Taiwan

• Russia - US relations

• Military modernization in ASEAN

  • South China Sea Disputes

Phase 1

1949 - 1957

• PRC and USSR agreement

• China was negative about W-EU integration

• Beijing looks for breathing room during Bandung phase

Bandung Conference

• 18 - 24 april 1955

• 23 asian, 6 african states

• 5 principles of peaceful coexistence

  • mutual respect for territorial integrity

  • mutual non aggression

  • noninterference

  • equality and mutual benefits

  • peaceful coexistence

Phase 2

• 1958 - 1965

• Great Leap Forward

  • Final straw with USSR

• China as a third way

  • You can choose us instead of USSR or US as ally

• Downfall Khrushchev

  • opens new USSR China Rapprochement chance with Breznev

Phase 3

• Cult Rev

• Anti US and Anti USSR

• USSR

  • Invade Czechoslovakia in 68

    • brenzjev doctrine

  • Border conflict China 1969

Phase 4

• 1971 - 1978

• Rapprochement US and PRC

  • 25 oct 1971 PRC member UN

• Three World Theory

  • Divided the world:

    • USSR & US → superpowers

    • US and USSR allies → Developed but not superpowers

    • Asia, Africa, Latin america → it was us against the superpowers

  • Different than the West version

    • First world → US and allies

    • Second World → USSR and allies

    • Third → the rest

  • China says its not Capitalist vs Communist anymore, its superpowers against the rest.

Phase 5

• 1979 - 1982

• Deng Xiaoping

• Reform and Open up

  • PRC turns to Europe and US

Phase 6

• 1982 - 1989

• USSR

  • Mikhail Gorbatchev

• Three World Theory less important but more alignment based relations

• Economic growth above ideology

Phase 7

• 1989 - 1997

• Tiananmen 89

  • EU and US boycott of China

  • China enhances relations with Southeast asia and africa

  • taiwan issue rises to forefront

• Collapse of communist regimes

  • US unilateralism

Phase 8

• 1998 - 2007

• WTO member

• China - Europe Strategic Partnership

• 2004 and 2007 expansion EU

  • rise in atlanticism

• Cracks appearing in EU china friendliness

Phase 9

• 2008 - …

• Rise of China

  • Successive crises in the West

• Relations with Europe worsens

  • 16 + 1

    • Cooperation with eastern european nations

• territorial disputes

  • Spratly Islands

Spratly Island

• Reasons:

  • shipping routes

  • fishing grounds

  • possible oil/gas resources

  • military positioning

  • control over maritime zones / EEZ claims

• Claims

  • PRC

  • ROC

  • Vietnam

  • Philippines

  • Malaysia

  • Brunei

• History

  • ROC 1947 eleven dashed line

  • PRC later → Nine Dash Line

    • Not being aggressive towards north vietnam so removes two dashes in gulf of Tonkin

  • 1988 - China and Vietnam clash near Johnson South Reef

    • China takes control several spratly islands

  • 2010 onwards - china builds artificial islands and military bases on some islands

  • 2016 - The Hague Court rejects legal basis. Pro Manila

    • PRC AND ROC both reject it

One China Policy

There is one China, Taiwan is part of China, and the PRC is the only legitimate government of China.

One Belt One Road

• Belt and Road Initiative

  • Belt economies → Eurasia - by land

  • Road economies → South Asia and Africa - by water

• 2013

  • Silk Road Economic Belt

• Funded by

  • Silk Road Fund 40 bn

  • Asian Infrastructure Bank → most money. 100 bn

  • New Development Bank 50 Bn

Aim belt and road initiative

• originally

  • Focus on maintaining peace and stability in the periphery

Six major economic corridors along BRI

• the China-pakistan

• the China-central Asia and Asia-west asia economic corridor

• the Bangladesh, China, India, Myanmar economic corridor

• the New Eurasia Land Bridge

  • has sub corridors

• the China Mongolia Russia Economic Corridor

• the China - Indochina Peninsula Economic Corridor

geopolitical importance of the BRI for China

• Implementation of alt continental route for trade and energy import reduces dependence on maritime routes crossing malaca and south china seas

• Security buffer zone between Xinjiang and Central Asia

• Positions China and engine of Global Economic development

  • But this in turn gives rise to tensions

Nativist

• the international wing of so-called ‘New Left’ in national politics

• consists of populists, nationalists, and some Marxists

• favor international autonomy

they are of the opinion that international multilateralism is a Western ‘trap’ to lure China into costly engagements overseas.

Realists

the dominant international relations school in contemporary China

• Hard power realists emphasize the economic and military aspect of such a strong state

• soft power realists more focus on diplomacy and culture

• offensive realists are of opinion that china should actively use its military and economic power to impose its will on other nations

• defensive realists are of the opinion that China should use its power to stop unwanted influences

Great power theory

emphasizes the importance of China’s relations with the other great power blocks: the United States, Russia, and to a lesser degree the European Union (recently, attention to Russia has increased; attention to the US has decreased)

Asia first

• Especially represented withing the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs

• attaches primary importance to good neighborhood policies with regard to surrounding countries

• focus on multilateral regionalism

• especially influential in the last decade of the 20th century

The global south

• most important international responsibilities of China are in the developing countries and in the underdeveloped countries

Selective multilateralists

• China’s international engagements has to be enlarged gradually, whereby the first priority should be those topics that are of direct importance of China

• Explains why China has expanded its activities in UN peace keeping missions, why China is active in the North Korean and Iranian issues but not issues concerning Iraq, Libia, Syria, Afghanistan

Globalists

• most interested in diplomacy, whereby it is of the opinion that china should become a full member of the international community

• strong advocators of the UN and China’s activities in the Security Council.

Some questions when it comes to rising China

• Is going towards a multilateral system a bad thing or a good thing?

• China model?

• Beijing consensus vs washington consensus