4.1 Natural Increase as a component of population change

Definition of birth rate

Average number of births in one year for every 1000 people

Definition of death rate

Average number of deaths in one year for every 1000 people

Definition of infant mortality

Number of deaths of children under the age of 1 year for every 1000 live births

Definition of child mortality rate

Number of deaths of children under the age of 5 years for every 1000 live births

Definition of life expectancy

Average age at which people die, expressed in number of years

Definition of fertility rate

Average number of babies a woman will have, assuming that she lives to the end of her childbearing years

Definition of replacement rate

Total fertility that exactly balances births and deaths, so the population growth is zero

What is the replacement rate now?

2.1 children per woman

• What is natural increase?

• What is natural decrease?

• What is zero growth?

• BR > DR

• BR < DR

• no change to population size. BR = DR

What is net migration?

The difference between the number of people coming into a country (immigration) and the number of people leaving a country (emigration)

• Difference of immigrants and emigrants of a country/area in a period of time divided per 1,000 habitants.

How to calculate overall population change

BR - DR +/- migration rate

What is population momentum?

When a country’s fertility rate declines to or below the replacement level while the population size continues to grow to the age structure of the population

What is carrying capacity?

the number of people a place/town/country can support.

1. Definition of crude birth rate

2. Definition of crude death rate

1. Average number of births in one year for every 1000 people

2. Average numb er of deaths in one year for every 1000 people

Economic reasons as to why the fertility rates vary across the world

• Children needed to work to earn money = economically beneficial

• High income = low fertility rate = people working more

• poverty = people can’t afford children

• women in workforce start family later in life as they focus on their career

Social reasons as to why the fertility rates vary across the world

• high infant mortality causes families to try for more babies.

• lack of women in education = stay at home and follow stereotypes.

• follow traditions of having large families

• lack of knowledge on contraception + family planning = lower FR

• variation in religions but all are declining

Environmental reasons as to why the fertility rates vary across the world

• Low sanitation leads to child disease and infant mortality

Political reasons as to why the fertility rates vary across the world

• child policies = low FR

• areas of conflict = low FR

What can be down to lower the fertility rate

• encourage migration into the country.

• Offer incentives for larger families

Why might HICs have a high death rate?

• lifestyle choices e.g. diet, smoking, drinking

• suicide rates are higher

• ageing population → geriatric (old people) conditions

Why might LICs have a high death rate?

• paediatric (children) conditions → environmental, infection

• HIV → AIDS = don’t get treatment

Factors affecting fertility

• Death rates: high BR to compensate for high infant mortality rates

• Tradition: cultural expectations to have large families, tradition for women to marry early + have babies

• Education: high female literacy = low fertility, education of birth control, known availability of contraception

• Age structure: countries with young dependent pop will have high fertility rates in future

• Religion: some refuse the use of birth control

• Economic factors: LICs → no child labour laws/compulsory schooling, MICs/HICs → employment laws + compulsory schooling, pensions → old people don’t rely on their children for support

• Government policy: China’s OCP = lower FR

• Status of women: poorly educated women have more children, women are trapped in LICs by poverty, women are expected to childbear and work at home,

Factors affecting mortality

• Poverty: MICs + LICs → higher chance of dying young

• Infant mortality: high IM → high mortality → children are more vulnerable

• Medical infrastructure: shortage of medical facilities + staff → high DR, people rely on tradition remedies with low success rates

• Economic development: lower mortality rates as countries get richer, high economic development → better education, water supply, sanitation

• Ageing population: increasing old dependent pop + countries that have been HICs for a while → high DR

• Non-communicable diseases: Health conditions, lifestyle choices, social conditions (heart disease, high blood pressure, obesity), High NCDs → more disposable income + more economic development

  • Caused by less physical activity, low cost of fast food, more availability of refined food, more consumption of tobacco + alcohol, high life expectancy

• Injury-related deaths: murders + war casualties, road traffic accidents, industrial injuries

Two main aspects of population structure

Age and gender

Advantages of using a % scale rather than total numbers on x axis

• Relative data makes comparisons of the population structure easier

• It makes changes in the population structure over time more obvious

• Changes between places over time is more easily observed.

Advantages of using a total numbers rather than % on x axis

• Absolute data means that total changes in population numbers are much easier to see and compare

• If the scales are the same it is easier to compare the differences in total number of population between different places.

4 main labels related to the population pyramid of a HIC

• Narrow base: low birth rates

• Gentle tapering: low mortality

• Rounded apex: ageing population

• More women over the age of 80

Comparing population pyramids:

• What do bulges represent?

• What do holllows represent?

• periods of higher birth rate e.g. post war baby booms or migration of specific age groups/sex.

• represents deaths of specific age groups e.g. men during the World Wars or emmigration of specific age groups/sex.

Labels to look for on population pyramids

• wide/narrow base

• wide/narrow middle

• wide/narrow top

• rounded apex: ageing population

• extended peak: high life expectancy

• gentle tapering: lower mortality

• straight sides at base: low infant mortality

• concave shape (like a slide)

• convex shape (like a rounded door)

Advantages of population pyramids

• governments can plan ahead for the future needs of the population

• comparisons can be made between populations

• to see how a population changes over time

• careful interpretation can give information about changing BR/DR/infant mortality/life expectancy

• the shape, gives a visual representation of population structure

• shows the impact of social services e.g. reduced infant mortality

• shows political intervention in population management policies

Disadvantages of population pyramids

• they have to be read very carefully

• they don’t provide any explanation

• description tends to be qualitative/subjective

Three groups a countries population can be divided into

• Young dependents

• The economically active

• Elderly dependents

What is dependency ratio?

A measure showing the size of the economically dependent age group relative to the economically active group.

How to calculate the basic age dependency ratio

((% young dependents + % old dependents) / % working population) x 100

What does the basic age dependency give us

the number of dependents (young AND old) that have to be supported by every 100 people of working age.

What does it mean it a population has a high dependency ratio?

high dependency ratio = non-economically active proportion is more dependent on the working population

How do the economically active contribute more to the economy?

• income tax

• VAT

• corporation tax

What do the dependent population receive?

• government funding

• education funding

• healthcare

• state pensions

What problems can be created by the dependency ratio?

the dependency ratio does not differentiate between those countries with very young population and those with aged population.

Problems this causes: the aged sector are relatively less economically draining than the young sector as some of the aged sector continue to work over the age of 65.

Equation to work out the child dependency ratio

• What does it mean if the child dependency ratio is high?

child dependency ratio = (% young dependents / % working population) x 100

• high child dependency ratio = greater proportion of younger people in the population

Equation to work out the aged dependency ratio

• What does it mean if the aged dependency ratio is high?

aged dependency ratio = (% old dependents / % working population) x 100

• high aged dependency ratio = greater proportion of older people in the population

What are triangular graphs used for?

• population

• economic sectors + development

What does a population triangular graph show us?

• level of dependency = high % of young OR high % of elderly

• level of economic development = HIC, MIC, LIC

Youthful population case study

The Gambia, Africa

Intro facts on The Gambia

• 10,000km²

• Capital city = Banjul

• Most Gambian’s live in rural areas

• BR = 36 per 1000 (2023)

• DR = 40 per 1000 (2023)

• Infant mortality rate = 41 per 1000 (2023)

• 38% aged under 25

• LIFE EXPECTANCY:

  • W = 63

  • M = 62.6

Evidence of population change in The Gambia

• 4.2% → 3% → 2.5% (2021)

• High fertility rates = 5.8 (2000) → 4.5 in 2023

• Density increased from 93 inhabitants per square kilometre to 190 by 2010

• Reduction in infant mortality rates HOWEVER: highest child mortality and maternal mortality in the area

• Increasing in-migration

• Highest population density in the region

Why are there so many people in Gambia?

• Traditional to have large family

• Contraception and family planning removed due to cultural beliefs

• Women didn’t have a say in number of children they has → low women empowerment

• Men have two wives: bigamy, polygamous

• More children for farm labour to make more profit

Advantages of having a fast growing population with lots of young people

• young people will later become the economically active + boost economy → population momentum → demographic dividend

• Increased status on world stage

• POLITICAL: young population = less conservative, centre/left

Disadvantages of having a fast growing population with lots of young people

• More money needs to be spent on schooling → primary school places + teachers

  → if not educated → lack of basic skills → non-productive work force

• More £ on healthcare: babies → vaccinations, maternal + primary first care

• Less current tax income = government can’t develop the country

• Pressure on housing → increase population per room → health/social issues + increased costs

• AI, type of work → mechanisation → threat of unemployment

• High juvenile crime rates

• Cost of childcare → pressure on mother

Effective strategies to help manage Gambia’s population

• Why are they effective?

• Set up a scheme to protect some of the forest areas and start planting more trees

  • Reducing deforestation can allow for more crops to be grown as the soil will be better quality and less eroded. Crops then create larger food source for families

• Only allow the people in The Gambia to have a maximum of two children

  • This needs to be monitored to prevent too much reduction but overall this will decrease the birth rate

• Make sure that men and women have equal rights to go to school and get a job

  • Raise awareness of contraception, lower the birth rate and increase the income for families. Women will have less babies

Overall Implications of Population Growth/Youthful Population for The Gambia

• Govt don’t have enough £ to improve infrastructure: Serrakunda → unpaved roads

• Lack of housing for large families → overcrowded families → share beds

• Lack of sanitation + running water

• Electricity is expensive

• Full time work but not paid enough to provide for family

• Famine due to lack of income

• No £ to build schools → larger classes → 2-shift-system → 26 classrooms for 3000 students

• Shortage of teachers → some overwork for less money

• Note enough toilets for students → long queues + health hazard → 250 students per toilet

• Limited textbooks

• High poverty rate

• Men have multiple wives → 22 dependents on 1 man

• Unemployment + underemployment

3 main problems in the Gambia

• Deforestation → lack of food

• Education

• The Future

Explain why deforestation is a problem for the Gambia and what is being done to deal with it?

• Deforestation leads to soil erosion and soil degradation → soil is infertile and less crops can be grown

• 7000 km² of forest have disappeared → financial and technical help from German government → forest management plan → restoring some of the degraded areas

• Music and dance used to talk about deforestation → sing to villages and then villages get full ownership of a community forest → hope to slow rate of deforestation

• Singers use the songs to teach the villagers how to make better use of the forest and how to reduce the damage

Explain why education is a problem for the Gambia and what is being done to deal with it?

• Example

• One of the poorest 50 countries in the world: GDP of about £1000 per person

• Families rely on children for income: 1 in 3 between the ages of 10 and 14 are working

• 1990s only 61% women attended primary, 3 out of 4 women were unable to read or write

• Estimated 50% of population unable to read and write → 42% urban male + 68% female pop is illiterate

• Children help with family chores with their mother but also go to school -> increases their chance of having fewer, healthier children

• People are becoming more aware that it is difficult to provide for more children and give them correct education -> family planning is used to have smaller families with good education that they can use to take care of themselves

• Increased number of classrooms + teachers

• School feeding programmes in place

• Double shifting: same classroom used twice a day as a morning school and afternoon school

• Textbook loan scheme introduced to increase textbooks and resource material

  EXAMPLE:

• Sukuta Lower Basic School: in the past 10 years the attendance has doubled

• Even though there are little resources, management and help from foreign NGOs the school can offer basic education to 3000 children

• Schools are now pushing for qualityeducation: they need resources and more teachers but don’t have the money

• Funding from world food programme -> all children get a daily meal of rice and beans

Explain why the future is a problem for the Gambia and what is being done to deal with it?

• Women don’t attend any funeral ceremonies -> religious attitudes are changing -> contraception is more accepted

• Family planning is no longer a taboo subject in families and women and men can speak openly

• Posters and signs against young pregnancies are seen in youth clubs

• Population growth has slowed under 3%

Explain how the lack of food problem is being dealt with

• The World Food Programme provides support to Schools Feeding Programme by supplying two healthy meals to 60,000 school children every school day for five years.

Programmes/projects/foundations in place to help tackle the problems

• Gambia Social Marketing Management Project

  • promote and distribute high-quality and affordable contraceptive and health products.

  • Help tackle the need for effective family planning, prevention of sexually transmitted infections and other preventive healthcare

• The Gambia Family Planning Association

  • Marketing program that collaborates with both private and public sector institutions to foster understanding, educate and support the people of The Gambia through creative interventions for information, education and communication.

Signs of improvement in tackling Gambia’s population problem

Education:

• / Increased primary school enrolment → rural areas: 70% boys, 60% girls

• Increased attendance and retention at school of girls → reduced drop out rate

• Improved children’s concentration and participation in education process by relieving short term hunger

• 35,000 Gambian youths unemployed → positive

Food:

• 60,000 school children get two healthy nutritious meals every school day for five years.

• Increasing nutritional intake of children in food insecure areas