PS 1 Module 10 Public Opinion Campaigns and Elections

public opinion

The aggregation of individual preferences on political issues, candidates, or institutions, measured through surveys, and understood in terms of both its direction (for or against) and its intensity (how strongly held).

attitudes vs. opinions

enduring, stable psychological orientations toward an object, person, or issue. They are deeply held and relatively resistant to change; underlying foundation — your general feelings about, say, "environmentalism" or "the Democratic Party" that were shaped over time through family, experience, and identity.

attitudes vs. opinions

Sometimes called "survey responses," these are the specific, surface-level expressions of those attitudes. They are more fluid and can shift depending on question wording, context, or recent news, as well as on what you say in response to a particular poll question on a particular day.

ideologies

coherent, internally consistent sets of beliefs about how society should be organized and what government should do. They function as mental shortcuts or organizing frameworks that help individuals make sense of politics without having to evaluate every issue from scratch.

selective perception

The tendency to interpret information in a way that aligns with one's existing beliefs, attitudes, or partisan leanings, rather than processing the information objectively.

heuristics

mental shortcuts or decision-making rules that allow individuals to form political opinions or make political choices with minimal effort and information. They are a way of coping with limited time, attention, and knowledge about politics.

Partisanship as a heuristic

use of one's party identification (Democrat, Republican, or Independent) as a mental shortcut to form opinions on political issues, evaluate candidates, and make voting decisions without needing detailed information about each specific matter.

opinion leaders

individuals who are more attentive to and informed about politics than the average person, and who actively influence the political opinions and behavior of others in their social networks.

ignorance challenge

the well-documented fact that a majority of the American public holds very little factual knowledge about politics, government, and current events, raising questions about whether citizens can meaningfully fulfill their democratic responsibilities.

sampling bias

occurs when the sample of individuals surveyed is not representative of the larger population the survey aims to describe, leading to results that systematically misrepresent public opinion.

question wording bias

The systematic error in public opinion polls that occurs when the phrasing, framing, or ordering of survey questions influences how respondents answer, producing results that do not accurately reflect their true attitudes.

Bradley Effect (and “Reverse” Bradley Effect)

The phenomenon where white voters tell pollsters they will support a Black candidate (to avoid appearing racist), but then vote for the white opponent in the privacy of the voting booth. This causes polls to overestimate support for Black candidates.

Bradley Effect (and “Reverse” Bradley Effect)

occurs when voters underreport support for a minority candidate in polls (perhaps due to social pressure or uncertainty), but then vote for that candidate at higher rates on Election Day, causing polls to underestimate their support.

Social desirability bias

the tendency for survey respondents to give answers that they believe are socially acceptable or expected, rather than revealing their true attitudes, particularly on sensitive or controversial topics.

turnout

The proportion of eligible voters who cast a ballot in a given election. It is typically calculated as the number of votes cast divided by the voting-eligible population (VEP) or, less commonly, the voting-age population (VAP).

retrospective voting

a model of voting behavior in which voters evaluate candidates or parties based on their assessment of past performance — primarily economic conditions and whether things have gotten better or worse — rather than on specific policy promises or ideologies.

proximity voting

model of voting behavior in which voters choose the candidate or party whose policy positions are closest to their own ideal points on a left-right ideological spectrum.

issue voting

a model of voting behavior in which voters cast their ballots based on specific policy issues — their positions on those issues, the importance they assign to them, and the candidates' positions on those same issues.

aggregate public opinion

The collective distribution of individual opinions in a population, typically measured through polls and surveys, is considered as a whole rather than at the level of individual respondents.