Lectures In Psychological Science (LIPS)

uncertainty as stressor

no stable predictor (more stressful than knowing something very stressful will happen)

uncertainty

• a natural part of life that impacts how we make decisions and experience discomfort

• It is the inability to determine the meaning of illness-related events, occurring when the decision maker is unable to assign definite value to objects or events, or is unable to predict outcomes accurately

• It’s not simply the lack of information (in psychology)

uncertainty as psychological stressor

• Important to know why it’s such a stressor

• Multiple outcomes are possible → brain generates multiple predictions

• Uncertainty can activate our stress system

• Chronic: more often or higher intensity, environment … → increases the risk of developing psychological problems

intolerance of uncertainty (IU)

• Dispositional difficulty tolerating ‘not knowing’

• Aversive emotional response to missing information

cognitive mechanisms

Can be functional mechanisms, but in the long way, they can contribute to bad outcomes

• worry

• catastrophizing

• threat monitoring

worry

central to IU, managing uncertainty, cognitive avoidance

o Keeps the person in a specific, analytical state

o What if … (one question generates another)

o Less confidence in coping due to this

catastrophizing

worst-case scenario, focus on the most neg option

o Overestimating the neg outcome

o Exaggerating, impossible to resolve the problem

threat monintoring

something is wrong this time, scanning for all neg threats

o Strong focus on all symptoms we feel

o Behavioral inhibition as part of it

o Searching online for information, overplanning …

emotional consequences

• amplifies NA

• dampens PA

• increases emotional dysregulation over time

amplifies NA

a.    More anxiety and fear (uncertainty felt as imminent threat)

b.    More anger/irritability (uncertainty as an unfair obstacle)

c.     More sadness/demoralization (pessimistic certainty)

dampend PA

a.    Less excitement and joy, even in potentially pos contexts

b.    Less reward anticipation (especially in depression)

c.     Difficulty savoring pos moments

increased emotional dysregulation over time

a.    Self-regulatory fatigue → chronic stress, burnout (uses a lot of energy and cognitive resources)

b.    More rumination and suppression

c.     Greater vulnerability to avoidance and withdrawal

behavioral consequences

• avoidance

• safety behaviors

• control behavior

avoidance

avoiding situations with uncertain outcomes

safety behaviors

checking, reassurance-seeking, overplanning (intended to create a sense of safety, but often a false sense)

1. information seeking

2. procrastination and perfectionism

information seeking

excessive research (including digital checking) → reduces uncertainty in the moment, but teaches the brain that you can only handle this if you check

procrastination and perfectionism

delaying action to avoid uncertainty

control behavior

over-functioning to prevent mistakes (subtle approach, micromanaging)

psychological correlates

-        IU is linked to altered anticipation and salience processing

-        Outcomes in the lab (meer gestructureerd, dus opletten met outcomes)

startle

often higher during unpredictable threat

corrugator

more neg valence during anticipation

skin conductance response (SCR)

less consistent in instructed uncertainty tasks

expected uncertainty (aleatory)

predictable variability, known and stable (ex: gambling)

unexpected uncertainty

sudden change, broken expectations (ex bad and unexpected news)

epistemic uncertainty

lack of knowledge (potentially learnable)

perceptual uncertainty

ambiguous sensory input (symptom or sensation)

volatility

rules change frequently over time, changing environment (mostly in chronic illnesses with fluctuations)

deep uncertainty

probabilities unknown

shallow uncertainty

quantifiable risk

objective uncertainty

outcome not yet determined, about the future (ex soccer match)

subjective uncertainty

the outcome already exists, but you don’t know it yet (ex health quiz)

vicious cycle in GAD

1.     Message from manager asking of you can come in tomorrow to talk

2.     Triggers a threat response, many possible outcomes → what if …

3.     Coping (worrying in loops, assurance, checking their work, no longer focusing on other matters …) → worrying feels useful

4.     Relief the next day: new possibility

Cycle: their brain learns that worry brings relief

uncertainty in personality disorders

uncertainty is often experienced as a threat to …

• self-coherence

• attachment-security

• control

Leads to emotion dysregulation, impulsivity, rigid coping and interpersonal conflict

IU may act as a transdiagnostic amplifier of NA and threat interpretation (evidence is emerging, mainly indirect pathways)

self-coherence (PD)

identity: the self is stable

if weak: uncertainty becomes a threat for the self

attachment-security (PD)

relationships

will this person stay with me or not? Even low levels can trigger strong reactions (ex a different kind of message than usual)

control (PD)

rules, order, predictability

over-checking everything

amplifier = uncertainty

borderline PD (uncertainty)

o   Uncertainty about the self + relationships

o   Rapid shifts in goals/values + fear of abandonment

o   Impulsivity/self-harm as fast relief from uncertainty distress (with high costs)

OCD (uncertainty)

o   Uncertainty managed via control

o   Perfectionism, overplanning, rigidity

o   Difficulty delegation, intolerance of mistakes

avoidant PD (uncertainty)

o   Uncertainty about evaluation

o   Avoidance of social/achievement situations

o   Safety behaviors: rehearsing, reassurance, withdrawal

paranoid traits (uncertainty)

o   Ambiguity interpreted as hostile intent

o   Threat certainty replaces uncertainty (“I know they’re against me”)

chronic illness as uncertainty

-        In chronic illness, uncertainty isn’t the exception, it’s the context

-        You need meaning in order to function properly

workplace uncertainty

-        Common behavioral and emotional markers

-        Decision paralysis or extreme risk-aversion

-        Impulsive decisions (short-term certainty seeking)

-        Future-focused worry (job insecurity, organizational pessimism)

-        Withdrawal and reduced collaboration

-        Lower-quality communication (less sharing, more misunderstandings)

-        Increased frustration, anxiety, irritability

-        Disengagement (“quiet quitting”) and apathy

-        Resistance to change and new initiatives

-        Turnover intentions and loss of key talent

-        Burnout and chronic exhaustion

psychological impact (workplace uncertainty)

-        Rapid economic, technological, and organizational change drives ongoing uncertainty

-        Uncertainty erodes focus, increases cognitive load, fuels burnout, and undermines trust

-        Prolonged uncertainty causes threat monitoring and anticipatory anxiety

-        Workplace uncertainty mirrors psychological mechanisms seen in health and clinical contexts (hypervigilance, reduced cognitive capacity, decision hesitancy)

leading with clarity

1. ensure people feel valued

2. be transparant

3. set clear goals

4. be predictable

5. leverage pos emotions

manipulating uncertainty

1. probability

2. predictability

3. ambiguity

4. volatility

probability

how likely is the outcome? (ex 20% vs 80%)

predictability

can we predict when it happens? (timing)

ambiguity

are probabilities unknown? (missing information)

outcome uncertainty

what will happen?

meaning uncertainty

what does this symptom/event mean?

methods and measures

-        Self-report: IUS-12 / IUS-27 (trait IU)  state uncertainty, threat appraisal, worry, coping

-        Behavior: avoidance choices, information-seeking, decision latency//over-checking, risk-avoidance, persistence under uncertainty

-        Psychophysiology (anticipation)

-        Startle reflex (defensive responding)

-        Corrugator EMG (neg valence)

-        HR/HRV (autonomic arousal)

-        Respiration (especially relevant in health and breathlessness)

-        Neuroimaging: anterior insula, amygdala, ACC, PFC during anticipation

strikes

have to do with conflicts on organizational/collective levels. There’s much change that has taken place from them

intrapersonal conflict

conflict within yourself

interpersonal conflict

conflict between individuals

intragroup conflicts

conflict within a team or group

intergroup conflict

conflict between teams or groups

conflict

between 2 (or more) parties, when at least 1 of the parties feels that the other party is opposing or irritating them

verrottingsstrategie

people that don’t fit well into the firm are ignored until they feel that they don’t belong within and leave (= passive aggressive)

intervention checks

keeping conflicts small by bridging in conflicts instead of talking behind each other’s backs

institutional conflict

with organization/context/system

interorganizational conflict

conflict between larger entities

international conflict

conflict within and between countries

interventions: golden rules

o   Prevention is the best intervention

o   Early actions: agila, small, clear, light

o   Escalation, engage third parties

conflict sensitivity

-        People differ strongly to the extent they experience conflict and are impacted

-        Conflict experience is the result of interaction

conflict experience

the result of interaction

• of person (conflict sensitivity)

• and social situation/context

• and the fit of both

important to recognize it

styles of conflict behavior

• accommodating

• problem solving

• compromising

• avoiding

• forcing

conflict behavior

o Connected to our personality

o But also personal style, like culture and family: some of us are avoiding, others accommodating …

o Sometimes you have to make a strategic choice: for example to do something you usually wouldn’t

emotional confusion

tears for anger, blame for guilt…

cultural conflict communication

-        Happiness: mostly associated with the fit with the culture and the persons personality

-        Sometimes you think you understand each other, but you don’t because of difference in conflict communication style

accommodation

Belgium: more restraint + indirect

dynamic

Italy:  expressive + indirect

the 7 sins

in conflict, we see all of them come to the front (not all at the same time), important to recognize them

1. pride, vanity

2. greed

3. lust

4. jealousy

5. gluttony

6. wrath (anger)

7. sloth (laziness)

peacemaking

-        Natural behavior in groups

-        Aiming to restore harmony

-        Extra role behavior of any group member

-        Helping 1 or both parties

behaviors are voluntarily actions, by a multi-partial third party, without formal authority, offering (un)solicited help, to their peers in conflict

importance of peacemaking

• conflict is stressful also to other group members

• conflict is a threat for the group

• restoring harmony is essential for surviving as a group

parts of peacemaking

1. Connecting to all parties

2. Emotional support (“I’m so sorry for you”)

3. Help finding solutions (“how would you do it, what would help for you?”) → be supportive and helpful

4. Use humor to ease tension

emotional support

“i’m so sorry for you”

• thin line between supporting and siding

• support is very important, but the moment you side, you fuel the conflict

humor

can be used to ease tension

• haing a peacemaker in the group is great and really helpful

• women tend to use this more in times of conflict

• usually helps to get perspective → no one is perfect …

• don’t be sarcastic, be connective

peacemaking: goal

you want to shift the perspective from the past to the present and the future

invalid post-selection inference

if we conduct classical inference with the same data that was used to select the statistical model

data analysis in the textbook

Step 1: select the statistical model

Step 2: the data set

Step 3: model fitting (fit the model via OLS)

Step 4: hypothesis test

type I error rate

alpha

probability of falsely rejecting H0

data analysis in practice

Step 1: model fitting (fit models across all possible subsets of independent variables via OLS)

Step 2: perform model selection (select the model that minimizes AIC)

Step 3: hypothesis test (for the regression coefficients in the selected model

AIC

to select the model

smallest value = the best

central limit theorem

ensures that the OLS estimator of θ₁ is approximately normally distributed around the true value θ_1, provided the sample size is sufficiently large

consequences of invalid post-selection inference

-        The parameter distribution after model selection is a mixture of multiple distribution conditional on selecting a specific model, weighted by the probability of selecting this model

-        Statistical inference after model selection does not take into account the ‘true’ uncertainty when estimating θ₁: the standard error rate of the OLS estimator of θ₁ is consistently underestimated

-        Type I rate inflation does not vanish asymptotically (N to infinity)

parameter distribution (after model selecting)

a mixture of multiple distribution conditional on selecting a specific model, weighted by the probability of selecting this model

statistical inference (after model selecting)

does not take into account the ‘true’ uncertainty when estimating θ₁: the standard error rate of the OLS estimator of θ₁ is consistently underestimated

type I rate inflation

does not vanish asymptotically (N to infinity)

solutions for invalid post-selection inference

• data splitting

• simultaneous inference

• conditional selective inference

data splitting

easy solution

Dataset is divided into training and test sets

data splitting: limitations

-        Loss in efficiency in model selection due to small sample size in the training set (ex favor simple models)

-        Loss of statistical power due to small sample size in the testing set

simultaneous inference

-        It considers all models explored during selection are relevant for inference, aiming for overall error control (ex to control the probability of making any error)

-        Constructs simultaneous (1 - a) confidence intervals based on least-squares estimated for the parameters of all linear regression models that were ever considered

simultaneous inference: problem

can lead to very wide CI’s

conditional selective inference

-        It focuses on a selected model and conditions the inference on the selected event (the selection of which hypotheses to test)

-        For example the confidence interval of θ₁ is constructed if only X1 is selected

conditional selective inference: problem

Depends on the model selecting tools (such as AIC) that are used

wilhelm diltey

• natural sciences

• humanities

natural sciences

explaining general laws of nature (erklären)

o External forces, invariant principles, repeatable

humanities

understanding humankind and complex phenomena resulting from interactions between humans such as history, culture and religion (verstehen)

o Total experience, not to be reduced to a small number of factors isolated in the lab, essentially non-repeatable

Snow

the 2 cultures”

-        Humanities <> sciences and engineering

-        Arts <> sciences

-        Arts engagement and aesthetic experience <> experimental aesthetics, computational aesthetics, neuro-aesthetics

Arts engagement and aesthetics experience

- Full-blown, rich experience

- First-person perspective

- Unique, subjective

- Influenced by personality, history, context, culture

- Case studies with qualitative methods