UK macroeconomy stats 2026

Taken from Econplusdal video

Annual growth rate (2025)

1.3%

Quarterly growth rate

0.1%, 0.6%

Annual growth forecast

1.1% OBR, 0.8% IMF

Output gap

Negative

GDP per capita

£40,000

Total GDP (nominal)

£3.04 trillion

GDP breakdown

79% services, 14% manufacturing, 6% construction, 1% agriculture

Unemployment rate

4.9%, down from 5.2%

Employment rate

75%

Economic inactivity rate

21.0%

Youth unemployment

16%

young people NEET

12.8%

Wage growth

3.6% nominal, 0.2% real

CPI Inflation rate

3.3%

Core inflation rate

3.1%

Inflation expectations

5.4%

Current account deficit

1.1% of GDP

Productivity growth

Weak - up 1.1% compared with pre-pandemic figures

Investment

Weak

Minimum wage

£12.71 /hour

Living wage

£13.45 /hour

Exchange rate

Weak: £1=$1.32-36, £1=€1.15

Trade with US

Slowing and tariffs

Trade with EU

Modest but slowing

Budget deficit

4.5% of GDP (£138bn)

National debt

£2.9trn (93.1% of GDP)

Income tax bands

Frozen until April 2031

National insurance

Employees: 12% to 10% to 8%

Corporation tax

25%

Gini coefficient

0.329

HDI

0.946 (15th globally)

BoE base rate

3.75%

Average lending rate

4%

Banks’ willingness to lend

Good

Household savings ratio

9.9%

QE

£895bn at its peak in 2022, now decreased to £527bn due to quantitative tightening, planned further reduction of £70bn by September

Interest expectations

MPC hold on rates, monitoring inflation risk from Middle East conflicts

Debt servicing

£110bn (3.6% of GDP)