poli 130 set 2

Juan Linz - The Perils of Presidentialism

• presidentialism is inherently less stable due to rigid structures and competing claims to legitimacy

• presidentialism: system with a fixed-term, independently elected executive

• dual legitimacy: both president and legislature claim democratic mandate

• rigidity: fixed terms > difficult to remove ineffective leaders

• winner-takes-all logic: elections produce zero-sum outcomes

• why it fails:

  • executive-legislative deadlock: no clear mechanism to resolve conflicts

  • dual legitimacy crises: competing democratic claims > institutional conflict

  • rigidity of terms: bad leaders cannot be easily replaced

  • polarization from winner-take-all elections: losers excluded > instability

• Chile (1973) - executive-legislative conflict contributed to democratic collapse

• Brazil (pre-1964) - fragmentation + presidential rigidity > instability

• United States: stable - but Linz calls it an exception due to strong institutions

• presidentalism > higher breakdown risk, especially in new democracies

Presidents and Assemblies Shugart and Cary

• design matters - not all presidential systems are doomed. institutional variation shapes outcomes

• strong presidents + weak parties = instability

• fragmented party systems > harder coalition-building

• electoral rules shape governability

• Brazil: strong president + fragmented parties > coalition complexity

• Chile (post-1990): better institutional design > more stability

Constitutional Choices for New Democracies Arend Lijphart

• consensus democracy (not majoritarianism) is best for new democracies

• majoritarian democracy: power concentrated in majority

• consensus democracy: power-sharing across groups

• PR: seats allocated proportionally to votes

• federalism: power divided territorially

• PR > inclusion of minorities

• coalitions> compromise

• power sharing > reduces conflict

• Netherlands: classic consensus model

• Belgium: power-sharing across linguistic groups

• South Africa (post-apartheid): PR used to include diverse groups

• PR + coalition government + decentralization = stability

Quentin Quade PR and Democratic Statecraft

• PR can weaken accountability and governance despite improving representation

• accountability: ability to punish/replace leaders

• fragmentation: many small parties in legislature

• party discipline: cohesion within parties

• PR > many parties > weak governments

• voters cannot easily assign blame

• Italy (post-WWII) - chronic coalition instability

• Israel: highly fragmented party system

• representation increases but accountability decreases

The Failure of Europe’s Mainstream Parties Anna Gryzmala-Busse

• mainstream parties failed due to weak responsiveness, corruption, and loss of credibility, enabling populists

• populism: anti-elite, anti-establishment politics

• party institutionalization: stability and rootedness of parties

• policy convergence > voters feel unrepresented

• corruption scandals > loss of trust

• weak party roots > easy collapse

• France: collapse of socialist and republican dominance

• Italy: party system collapse in 1990s

• Poland: rise of populist Law and Justice

• weak parties > opens door to populism and democratic erosion

The Ethnocracy Trap Lise Morje Howard

• ethnocracies entrench division and undermine democracy

• consociationalism: power-sharing across ethnic groups

• ethnic outbidding: politicians compete by appealing to ethnic identity

• institutionalizing ethnicity > reinforces divisons

• leaders mobilize ethnic fear > polarization

• no incentive for crossgroup cooperation

• Bosnia and Herzegovina: ethnic quotas > gridlock

• Lebanon: sectarian system > dysfunction

• ethnic powersharing can freeze conflict instead of resolving it

Electoral Systems for Divided Societies Benjamin Reilly

• integrative electoral systems (not purely proportional ones) best reduce ethnic division

• centripetalism: incentivizing moderation and crossgroup appeals

• preferential voting: rank candidates

• vote pooling: candidates must gain support from multiple groups

• require politicians to seek votes beyond their ethnic group, encourage moderation over extremism, reduce ethnic outbidding

• Australia: preferential voting encourages broad appeal

• Fiji: attempted vote-pooling reforms

• Papa New Guinea: limited preferential voting to reduce conflict

Making Democracy Work - Robert D. Putnam

• civic culture > institutional performance. regions with strong social capital have more effective governance

• social capital: networks, trust, and norms that facilitate cooperation

• civic engagement: participation in community and political life

• horizontal networks: associations among equals

• trust > cooperation > better policy implementation

• dense civic networks > accountability

• norms of reciprocity > reduce corruption

• Italy (North vs South) North had strong civic traditions and effective regional governments, while South had hierarchical and clientelistic so weak performance

  • democracy works best where civic engagement is historically rooted

Civil Society and the Collapse of the Weimar Republic - Sheri Berman

• civil society can undermine democracy if the state is weak

• civil society: voluntary associations outside the state

• Weimar Republic: german democracy (1919-1933)

• political fragmentation: many competing groups without coordination

• strong civil society + weak state > fragmentation

• associations become politicized and polarized

• extremist groups (eg. Nazis) mobilize through civil society

• Germany (Weimar) had dense associational life, but no strong state to mediate conflict > collapse

• social capital is not inherently good - depends on context

Ethnic Studies: Issues and Approaches by Philip Q. Yang

• ethnicity is socially constructed and politically mobilized, not fixed

• ethnicity: shared identity based on culture, language, ancestry

• primordialism: ethnic identity is fixed and ancient

• constructivism: ethnic identity is fluid and shaped by politics

• instrumentalism: elites use ethnicity strategically for power

• elites activate ethnic identity for political gain

• economic/political competition: ethnic tension

• institutions shape how ethnicity matters

• ethnicity is not inevitable conflict - it is politically constructed

Serbia’s Road to War - VP Gagnon Jr

• violence within Yugoslav wars was strategically produced by elites, not driven by ancient ethnic hatred

• elite manipulation: leaders provoke conflict to maintain power

• demobilization strategy: violence distracts from economic/political failure

• leaders fear losing power

• shift politics from economic issues > ethnic conflict

• use media/violence to polarize society

• Serbia/former Yugoslavia: elites mobilized nationalism to stay in power

• ethnic conflict is often top-down, not bottom-up

Votes and Violence Steven I. Wilkinson

• ethnic violence is driven by electoral incentives, not spontaneous hatred

• electoral competiton: parties competing for votes

• vote banks: reliable blocs of voters

• state capacity: ability to control violence

• politicians incite violence when it helps win elections

• violence targets groups that are politically expendable

• strong governments prevent violence when minorities matter electorally

• India: riots more likely where minorities are not electorally valuable. less violence where minorities are key vote blocs

• violence occurs when it is politically beneficial and allowed

Ethnic Conflict and Civil Society Ashutosh Varshney

• interethnic civic networks prevent violence

• interethnic networks: associations linking different groups

• intraethnic networks: associations within one group only

• crossgroup ties > communication during crises

• shared organizations > reduce mistrust

• local leaders coordinate to prevent escalation

• India - cities with interethnic networks are peaceful, while cities without have riots

• not just civil society - but what kind matters

presidentialism

• “head of state” and “head of government” one in the same

• separation of powers (and elections) between the executive and legislative branch

• cabinets appointed by presidents

• fixed terms and term limits for presidents

parliamentarism

• “head of state” and “head of government” typically different

• no separation of powers between the executive and legislative (prime minister/government emerges from the legislature)

• government/cabinet selected by formateur w/ legislative approval

  • formateur is the person designated to form the government in a parliamentary democracy, and is often the PM designate

  • once the formateur is selected, they must put a cabinet together that the legislature will accept

• since legislatures are rarely dominated by one party government formation involves a lot of negotiation

  • a minimal winning coalition (MWC) is one in which there are no parties that are not required to control a legislative majority

  • a single-party minority government comprises a single party that does not command a majority of legislative seats

  • a minority coalition government comprises multiple governmental parties that do not together command a majority of legislative seats

  • a surplus majority government comprises more parties than are strictly necessary to control a majority of legislative seats

• no fixed terms for prime ministers

  • vote of no confidence

  • vote of confidence

parliamentarism - Gamson’s Law

cabinet portfolios will be distributed among parties in strict proportion to the number of seats contributed to the government’s legislative seat total

• party A (80 seats) and Party B (40 seats) form a government in a legislature with 200 seats

• Party A should receive 80/120 = 2/3 of cabinet portfolios

• Party B should receive 40120 = 1/3 of cabinet portfolios

• implication of Gamson’s law is that you will not want more parties than is strictly necessary to receive a vote of support from a majority of the legislature

  • a single-party majority government comprises a single party that controls a majority of the legislative seats

the perils of presidentialism

• zero-sum game

• executive-legislative deadlock

• fixed-terms and “lame duck” syndrome

the problem with parliamentarism

• accountability issues

• parliamentary gridlock

  • government instability

  • small parties wield too much power

• tyranny of the majority

alternative solutions - semi presidentialism

• directly-elected president; prime minister elected by parliament

• variegated power sharing between president and prime minister

  • premier-presidential

  • presidential parliamentary

• possibility of “cohabitation” and deadlock

presidentialism pros

• more government accountability

• cohesion within executive branch

presidentialism cons

• dual legitimacy

• executive-legislative gridlock

• hard to remove inefficient governments

parliamentarism pros

• more representation in executive

• easier to remove inefficient governments

parliamentarism cons

• less accountability

• more (potential) government instability

electoral system

• the set of rules and mechanisms used to determine the results of a (legislative) election. Put simply, “how votes are translated into seats”

• three types: majoritarian/plurality, proportional, mixed

  • helps allocate power in a country

  • determines the quality and nature of political representation

  • conditions the nature and quality of the party system

  • not cleanly correlated with executive-legislative systems

differenr systems

• presidential plurality: Ghana, US

• presidential proportional: Brazil, Argentina, Peru

• parliamentary plurality: Canada, UK, India

• parliamentary proportional: Israel, Norway, Spain

key features of majoritarian/plurality electoral systems

• one representative per district

• representatives chosen by majority/plurality rule

• three main types of majoritarian/plurality systems

  • single-member district plurality

  • majority two-round runoff

  • alternative vote

single-member district electoral systems

• one representative per district

• “first past the post” selection rule

• used in the UK, Canada, US, Belize, India, and Nigeria

percentages

• under a majoritarian electoral rule, need a minimum of 51% of votes to win election

• under a plurality electoral rule w/ three parties, need 34% minimum votes to win election

strategic voting in majoritarian/plurality electoral systems

• plurality systems encourage strategic voting

majority/plurality electoral systems: Duverger’s law

• number of parties closely related to electoral system

  • Duverger’s law: single member district plurality systems > two-party systems

    • mechanical effect: the way votes are translated into seats

    • strategic effect: how the mechanical effect influences the “strategic’ behavior of voters

disproportionality in majoritarian/plurality electoral systems

• plurality systems produce representative institutions that are highly disproportional

key features of proportional electoral systems

• characterized by multi-member districts (MMD)

• representatives chosen “in proportion” to the number of votes received

• three main types of proportional systems

  • list proportional representation

  • single transferable vote

  • mixed-member proportional representation

• encourage sincere voting

key features of list PR electoral systems

• voters select representatives to MMD according to party lists

  • closed lists

  • open lists

proportional electoral systems: Duverger’s Hypothesis

number of parties closely related to electoral system

• Duverger’s Law: single member district plurality systems > two-party systems

• Duverger’s Hypothesis: PR electoral systems > multiparty systems

district magnitude and proportionality

• district magnitude: the number of representatives to be elected to a legislative body in each electoral district

• the problem with PR: party extremism

electoral rules are varied and highly consequential

• shape allocation of political power

• determines representativeness in politics

• has consequences for the stability of parties, democracy

• must “choose” electoral and party systems carefully to fulfill specific objectives and produce optimal outcomes

political party

a group of people, who, under a common banner, field candidates to popularly elected assemblies (Pettitt 2014)

party functions

• coordinate political preferences and elites

• mobilize candidates and voters during elections

• socialize citizens and elites into democratic politics

• represent citizen’s preferences and transmit them to the state

explaining mainstream party weakness

• economic anxiety

• immigration

• failure of representation

  • descriptive representation: representation of citizens’ ascriptive characteristics

  • substantive representation: representation of citizens’ policy preferences

explaining poor representation

• between-party homogeneity

• within-party heterogeneity

within-party heterogeneity

according to tarek abou-chadi (2025):

• the presence of radical right parties in PR systems tends to make center-right parties become more restrictive on immigration, but..

• the presence of green parties does not move mainstream left parties towards more action on the environment

preferential voting

• a system of voting whereby the voter indicates his order of preference for each of the candidates listed on the ballot for a specified office. if no candidate receives a majority of first preferences, the first and second preferences, etc. may be counted until one candidate obtains a majority

  • alternative vote

  • single transferable vote

advantages & disadvantages of preferential voting

advantages

• incentivizes candidates to appeal to a broader electorate

• incentivizes voters to preference moderate candidates

• allows for easier coalition building

disadvantages

• difficult to understand

• difficult to calculate

mainstream parties have become less popular over time

• economic anxiety

• immigration

• poor representation

• to fix representation, we need more flexible electoral/party systems that:

  • offer multiple ideological choices

  • incentivize moderation

  • promote coalition building

political objectives in fragile/divided democracies

• socialize citizens and elites into democratic politics

• increase representativeness of government

• reduce polarization between groups

• prevent (ethnic) conflict

• ensure political stability

consociationalism

a form of governance which seeks to regulate the sharing of power in a state that comprises diverse societies by allocating these groups specific representation in the political system

• executive power sharing (eg. coalition/multiparty cabinets)

• veto-power

• segmental autonomy (ethnic-group autonomy, culturally-based community laws)

• proportional representation

Consociationalism at work: Lebanon

• executive power sharing: Maronite president, Shi’a speaker of the house, Sunni prime minister

• veto-power: mutual veto among different sects

• segmental autonomy: delegation of personal status code to individual communities

• proportional representation: Senate seats divided by sect according to a formula

parliamentarism pros and cons

pros

• promotes consensus government

• enhances representation through coalition-building

cons

• diffuses political accountability

• may reduce government stability

presidentialism pros and cons

pros

• promotes cohesive government

• enhances government stability

cons

• decreases government representativeness

• can produce gridlock b/w executive and legislature

plurality/majoritarianism pros and cons

pros

• promotes parties w/ centrist ideologies

• reduces the influence of fringe/radical parties

cons

• “winner-takes-all” increases competition among groups

• decreases gov’t representativeness

proportional representation pros and cons

pros

• increases representation of minorities

• can promote coalition-building/cooperation

cons

• may institutionalize ethnic/ideological differences

parliamentary systems typically better for new democracies

• create consensus government

• increase representation

proportional systems typically better for divided societies

• diffuse ethnic competition

• increase representation

• promote coalition building

consociationalism can work but..

• must be flexible to change

• must allow voters to choose/candidates to run on measures beyond ethnicity

• must incentivize moderation

civil society

the sphere of organized, non-governmental, non-violent associations that exist outside of the state, market, and family

what civil society groups are

sports teams, youth groups, hobby groups, labor unions, religious groups, service organizations

what civil society groups are not

• government organizations

• political parties

• businesses

• professional sports teams

significance of civil society

• helps citizens transmit interests to state

• helps to “check” the state and maintain a balance of power

• serves as a “school of democracy” which socializes citizens to engage in civic behavior (Tocqueville)

making democracy work: answer

• strength of civic community and social capital among residents in northern Italy make institutions function effectively

  • civic community: communities populated with dense civic associations and characterized by high levels of cooperation and civic engagement

    • number of civic associations

    • social networks

    • civic behaviors

  • social capital: networks of mutual trust and reciprocity developed through interpersonal ties

measures of civic engagement have declined in the past 50 years

people have less social capital than before

three main shifts:

• increased mobility of people, families

• more women are in the workforce

• technology has drawn people away from participation

critiques of Putnam’s argument

• defines civil society tautologically

  • “civic community is marked by an active, public-spirited citizenry, by egalitarian political relations, by a social fabric of trust and cooperation” -Putnam

• neglects uncivil groups that maintain robust organizations and social capital

uncivil society

• a set of associations within civil society that challenge liberal democratic values by promoting exclusivist ideologies or predatory practices

what uncivil society groups are

• mafia/criminal groups

• gangs

• extremist groups

• fundamentalist groups

• hate groups

civil society and the fall of democracy in Weimar Germany

reasons for Nazi popularity:

• rise in anti-semitic views

• economic frustration

• uncivil society

Michel’s Iron Law of Oligarchy

the principle stating that large organizations will naturally tend towards centralized elite control, undermining rank-and-file engagement in the organization

improving civil society: democratic v hierarchical organization

• erosion of grassroots activism and internal democracy

• reduces inclusivity and representation

• increases resistance to change and accountability

bridging social capital

social capital that links individuals across multiple cleavages or categories of difference

bonding social capital

• social capital that exists among individuals within a single, homogenous community

civil society can be very beneficial for democracy

• organize/mediate citizen interests

• counterbalance state power

  • socialize citizens into civic behavior

questionable whether civil society is casually related to democracy

• can be highly undemocratic in character and aims

• can be easily coopted by political actors

• can be susceptible to societal divisions

for civil society and democracy to function at its highest potential

• must focus on engaging members at the grassroots

• must be oriented towards liberal/democratic aims

• must incorporate members from diverse racial/ethnic, ideological, and religious groups

ethnic group

a group of people who see themselves as united based on a shared belief in a common ancestry and common ascriptive traits

• race

• language

• religion

• customs (?)

• region (?)

nation

a group of people linked by unfiying traits and the desire to control a territory that is thought of as the group’s national homeland

why ethnicity matters

• cultural pluralism

• objective difference

• ethnic conflict

three theories of ethnic attachments

• primordialism

• instrumentalism

• social constructivism/institutionalism

primordialism

a theory of ethnic identity that sees ethnicity as being “natural” or fixed, as having always existed, and as defined by kinship, language, or phenotype

• ethnicity is fixed and unchanging

• ethnicity always salient

• ethnic differences are permanent (co-ethnics more likely to cooperate than non co-ethnics)

problems with primordialism

• ethnic categories are often fluid and changing

• hard to tell co-ethnics from non co-ethnics

instrumentalism

a theory of ethnic identity that sees ethnicity as a device that groups or individuals use to unify, organize, and mobilize populations to achieve larger goals

• ethnic identification as a strategic choice

• ethnicity chosen to optimize other (usually economic) outcomes

problems with instrumentalism

• ethnicity not as fluid as instrumentalism would predict

constructivism

a theory of ethnic identity that sees ethnicity as being “created” or “constructed” through social and political processes

• ethnicity not fixed, but fluid

• ethnicity made salient by certain actors or institutions

• ethnic differences can be constructed and overcome

• study of ethnic relations between Chewas and Tumbukas in Malawi and Zambia

  • Chewas and Tumbukas are ethnic rivals in Malawi and compete often, but are ethnic allies in neighboring Zambia

  • political competition between Chewas and Tumbukas given electoral system and demography make them rivals in Malwai but allies in Zambia

problems with institutionalism

• hard to predict ex-ante when ethnicity will be made salient

• institutions have unintended consequences

• ethnic identification can be “sticky”

case study of ethnic violence: Rwanda

• ethnic conflict between Rwandan Armed Forces (Hutu) and Rwandan Patriotic Front (Tutsi)

• lasted from April to July 1994

• 500,000-1 million persons killed

defining a ifference: Hutu vs Tutsi

• racial difference

  • separate ethnic groups with different ancestry

  • Tutsi racially superior to Hutus

  • because of ethnic differences Tutsi are inimical to Hutus

  • problem: frequently intermarry

• class difference

  • similar ethnically but separate social classes

  • Tutsi = wealthy pastoralists

  • Hutu = poorer agriculturalists

  • problem: social mobility among Hutu and Tutsi

• (institutionalized) political difference

  • Hutu and Tutsi are ethnically similar, and socially malleable

  • ethnic difference politicized through pre-colonial and colonial practices

    • administrative hierarchy

    • forced labor

    • Ubureetwa: a system of forced labor, performed as “payment” for living on a chieftains land

    • identification cards

backdrop to genocide: Rwandan independence

• continued practice of legally codifying ethnic differences

• Hutu appointed to all administrative, military and political positions

• Tutsi land expropriated and redistributed

• 160,000 Tutsis killed or displaced

• Arusha Accords: a 1993 peace agreement between the Rwandan government and the Rwandan Patriotic Front designed to end the ongoing civil war in Rwanda

  • power-sharing of ministerial posts

  • Tutsi integration into the National Assembly

  • Tutsi integration into the army

explaining Rwandan genocide

• ethnic hatred and fear

• instrumentalism

• institutions

  • Interhamwe: youth militia of the MRND, used to perpetrate violence against Tutsis during Rwandan genocide

• international inaction

case study of ethnic violence: the former Yugoslavia

about the Balkans

• religious diversity

• ethno-linguistic diversity

• comprised of distinct nation-states

Yugoslavia

• established as a federated republic

• suppression of nationalist rhetoric with Communist ideology and violence

• administrative reforms to balance ethnic tensions

  • power-sharing executive

  • decentralization and autonomy

backdrop to ethnic conflict: Tito’s Death and Crisis

• political vacuum

  • rotating presidency

  • five year terms

  • possibility of veto on legislation

• economic crisis

• secession/democratization

• strengthening of nationalist tendencies

ethnic conflict in Bosnia: Civil war and genocide

• war lasting four years (91-95)

• estimated 100k+ deaths

• ended by joint UN/NATO intervention

explaining ethnic violence in Bosnia

• primordialism

  • generally friendly relations post-Tito

  • moderate rates of intermarriage

  • low support for violence

• institutionalism

  • federal political system created imbalances in representation

  • constitutional amendment helped Milosevic consolidate power

  • democratic referenda for independence threatened serbian power in multiethnic regions

• instrumentalism

  • ethnic security dilemma: situation in which actions taken by an ethnic group to increase its own security cause reactions from other groups, which in turn lead to a decrease rather than an increase in the original group’s security

ethnic riots in India

• ethno-religious conflict

• violence in the form of riots

• state-sanctioned violence

explaining ethnic riots in india

• electoral incentives/party system

  • electoral incentives encourage some regional governments to foment ethnic divisions

  • multiple parties + minority votes > ethnic peace

  • two parties + no minority votes > ethnic riots

• civil society

  • civil society networks prevent ethnic riots in some areas and not in others

  • intercommunal civil society groups: civil society organizations that group individuals across multiple cleavages or categories of difference

  • intracommunal civil society groups: civil society organizations that group individuals within a single community

ethnic conflict and civil society: the case of india

Ahmedabad

• two parties (Congrss and BJP)

• muslim population

• legacy of intercommunal harmony under Gandhi

• history of violent ethnic riots

Surat

• two parties (Congress and BJP)

• muslim population

• legacy of intercommunal harmony under Gandhi

• history of relative ethnic peace

healing tensions after violence

• truth and reconciliation commissions

• integration campaigns

• reframing history