Hazards case studies

Roughly 40 million

The population of California which is starting to decline after 100 years of rapid growth

More than 70%

How much of California’s population live within 50km of a fault line

Average age is increasing

Demographic trend of California’s population that is increasing vulnerability

Weak, easily eroded sedimentary rock

Characteristics of California’s coastline that is making it susceptible to coastal erosion

7.7 million

SF Bay Area population

16 million

LA Metro Region population

The Golden State

Nickname for California which emphasises the view that its lifestyle outweighs the risk of several hazards

Large Latin American immigrant population who speak weak English

Demographic factor of California population that increases vulnerability as they struggle to understand warnings

Mediterranean climate

Climate that most of the state possesses which is ideal for wildfires

0.935

HDI of California - slightly above the USA average of 0.927

170,000

Estimated number of homeless people in California

San Andreas and Hayward faults

The 2 fault lines in the SF Bay Area that are both overdue a significant earthquake

Hayward Fault

The single most urbanised fault in the USA as 2.4 million people live alongside it in the Bay Area

158

The amount of years since the last major earthquake on the Hayward Fault, they tend to fall in roughly 140 year intervals

Wildfires (Camp Fire), Earthquakes (South Napa), Landslides (La Conchita), volcanoes

Types of hazards that threaten California as a multi hazardous environment

Conservative

The type of plate boundary that California lies on between the North American and Pacific plates (lies on the Ring of Fire)

530,000

The amount of millionaires living in the SF Bay Area, the second richest region in the USA - incentivising rich organisations to conduct the most advanced earthquake research in the world and maximise adaptation and mitigation to a world leading extent

High education rates

Demographic factor of the SF Bay Area meaning that the population are very well informed on how to react to an earthquake in order to preserve life as well as how to adapt and mitigate against the hazard - lowered vulnerability

The Bay Area Earthquake Plan

Created by FEMA (federal emergency management agency) through consultation of all levels of society with the goal of saving/sustaining life, stabilising and restoring critical infrastructure quickly, and facilitating rapid recovery through identifying major elements that will impede the return to normal life such as infrastructure damage, medical needs, housing needs, public information etc. and addressing them before an event actually takes place

Aim of the Bay Area Earthquake Plan

To give locals confidence that in the event of a major earthquake they can focus on themselves, not others or their properties/utilities

South Napa Earthquake (2014 - West Napa Fault)

Occurred in the North of the region at 3:20am local time, 6.0 MMS, VII (Severe) Mercalli Scale, ground shaking felt by roughly 1 million people

12

Amount of aftershocks of the South Napa Earthquake, up to 3.9 magnitude

Primary effects of South Napa Earthquake

1 death, 200 injured, structural damage mounting to nearly US$1bn

Secondary effects of South Napa Earthquake

Water inundation in some coastal areas, at least 12 aftershocks of up to 3.9 magnitude, fires

Long term response to South Napa Earthquake

613 undestroyed structures were tagged for immediate attention, several historic buildings such as the Uptown Theatre were rebuilt, significant economic resilience in the local wine industry

Short term response to South Napa Earthquake

Firefighters immediately deployed to 6 major fires which ended up destroying 4 homes, all injuries immediately referred to local undamaged hospitals preventing any further loss of life

10

Amount of deaths caused by La Conchita landslide as well as dozens of buildings damaged/destroyed

Main cause of La Conchita landslide

15 day period of near record rainfall where nearly the average annual rainfall fell in 15 days

Response to La Conchita Landslide

Government allocated US$667k to research control measures against future landslides in the region, however, to this day there is no reason to believe landslides will not continue to threaten the region

Camp Fire (2018 - Butte County)

The deadliest and most destructive wildfire in California’s history which burned over 150,000 acres of land over more than 2 weeks - the most expensive natural disaster by insured losses worldwide in 2018

Paradise, Concow, Magalia, Butte Creek Canyon

Areas destroyed by the Camp Fire 2018

Primary effects of Camp Fire

85 deaths, 17 injuries, 52,000 evacuated, 18,804 buildings destroyed, US$16.65bn of damage

Secondary effects of Camp Fire

PG+E filed for bankruptcy due to expected wildfire liabilities of US$30bn - also pleaded guilty to 84 counts of involuntary manslaughter, 5-25% reduction in local economic activity over 2 years, local insurance companies placed into liquidation, haze affected areas such as SF Bay Area causing school closuresL

Long term response to Camp Fire

Mental health support sent to areas affected with therapy dogs for people with PTSD, undertook the largest environmental clean-up in Californian history, sites were set up to process debris and demolition

Short term response to Camp Fire

Successfully evacuated nearly the entire town of Paradise, Butte County Sherriff’s office opened an emergency call centre, 5500 firefighters were deployed as well as helicopters, aircraft etc.

Cause of Camp Fire

A poorly maintained PG+E (Pacific Gas and Electricity Company) electricity transmission line failed causing molten metal pieces to fall into the extremely dry vegetation below and set it alight - powerline in question was on a steep incline above a highway and extremely difficult to access

Kabatic winds

Factor that caused the 2018 Camp Fire to spread so rapidly

70

Amount of the 84 victims of the Camp Fire that died inside or immediately outside their residences indicating that it was due to their failure to evacuate - faulty hazard perception (only 8 deaths occurred while evacuating)

Eyjafjallajokull (2010)

Stratovolcano with andesitic/basaltic lava and explosive eruptions located on a constructive plate boundary between Eurasian and North American plates, was considered dormant after the 2010 eruption which caused 0 deaths and very few injuries

4

VEI of the 2010 Eyjafjallajokull eruption

Ice caps

Trait of Eyjafjallajokull that caused flooding in local river valleys forcing the evacuation of over 1000 people

Steam (from melting ice caps)

What the ash from Eyjafjallajokull mixed with causing it to rise unusually high and get carried by high altitude jetstreams and interfere with flight paths as well as cause a lack of sunlight which harmed agriculture in Iceland and Europe

£1.2 billion

Estimated cost to the aviation industry of the shutdown of vast amounts of European airspace after the Eyjafjallajokull eruption

Mt Nyiragongo eruption (2002)

Constructive plate boundary between Nubian and Somali plates, stratovolcano with low viscosity, alkaline lava that is very fluid and quick when moving downhill and frequent, effusive eruptions

30

Rough amount of years between each eruption of Nyiragongo - very unpredictable and can erupt without warning

1

VEI of unexpected 2002 Nyiragongo eruption that emitted huge amounts of extremely toxic gases

Primary effects of Nyiragongo eruption

Rapid lava flows which destroyed a third of Goma including the city centre and hospitals and partially covered the airport runway, 147 deaths, thousands injured, red alert evacuation order for Goma and surroundings causing over 350k to flee the area, 3500+ houses destroyed

Secondary effects of Nyiragongo eruption

Sulphurous lava poisoned Lake Kivu - main source of local drinking water, neighbouring settlements such as Gisenyi in Rwanda were overwhelmed due to evacuations, caused several earthquakes - one over 5 MMS which damaged buildings, huge amounts of looting in Goma, thousands required medical attention for eye irritation or respiratory issues caused by toxic gas/ash, increased political turmoil in DRC due to lack of warnings

Responses to Nyiragongo eruption

UN quickly supplied large amounts of aid, Goma was rebuilt at a higher altitude so it is less susceptible to lava flows and at 4 times greater size, evacuation drills and plans have been set up in the surrounding area

Haiti earthquake (2010)

Conservative plate boundary between North American and Caribbean plates with an epicentre 25km West of Port-Au-Prince, 13km deep shallow, destructive focus, occurred at 4:53pm local time

Enriquillo-Plantain Garden Fault

Fault line that the 2010 Haiti Earthquake occurred on

7

The MMS magnitude of the 2010 Haiti Earthquake which was X (extreme) Mercalli Scale

3.5 million

Approximate amount of people that felt severe ground shaking including some in neighbouring countries

0.552

HDI of Haiti - the poorest country in the Western hemisphere by GDP which means risk of disease outbreak post disaster is high

Primary effects of Haiti earthquake (2010)

Estimated death toll of 100k-316k, at least 300k injured, estimated 2.3m made homeless, nearly 300k buildings destroyed, $7.8bn-8.5bn of damage

Secondary effects of Haiti earthquake (2010)

At least 52 aftershocks of 4.5 magnitude or greater, 4000 prisoners escaped the main local prison due to building damage, education system collapsed due to 1300 schools being destroyed, breakdown in law and order with sporadic violence and widespread looting reported, estimated 8000 people died from a Cholera outbreak caused by thousands of unburned bodies, major boost to the already significant national debt, most important economic buildings and all hospitals in Port-au-Prince were destroyed, considerable damage to communications and infrastructure, collapse of water supplies and basic sanitation

Inflating the death toll to attract more aid

Accusations against the Haitian government in the response to the disaster involved:

Poor construction standards and no building codes

The main reason why so many buildings were damaged in the Haiti earthquake 2010

170,000

Amount of people still in displacement 4 years on from the Haiti 2010 earthquake as well as 50% of debris still yet to be removed

Response to Haiti Earthquake (2010)

Huge amounts of aid and rescuers sent from other countries, however an extreme lack of resources and heavy lifting made it difficult for rescuers, since the earthquake, new building codes and regulations have been installed, bodies have been buried in mass graves, and part of the national debt has been written off

Hurricane Katrina (2005)

Category 5 hurricane that made landfall around New Orleans with winds of up to 280kmh

50%

How much of New Orleans is below sea level due to original flood control measures shrinking soils

19

How many hours before impact of Hurricane Katrina that evacuation plans were drawn up due to lack of leadership - increased vulnerability for those who didn’t evacuate

Primary effects of Hurricane Katrina (2005)

1242 deaths, 1 million + displaced, 80% of New Orleans flooded, 110,000 homes damaged, 55,000 beyond repair (of 180,000 in New Orleans), estimated US$200bn of damageSe

Secondary effects of Hurricane Katrina (2005)

Several oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico were damaged/destroyed causing increased oil prices, famous tourist attractions were destroyed, decreasing tourism revenue, looting was reported, Most structures damaged were insured causing insurance companies to issue profit warnings

80%

Amount of New Orleans that flooded due to engineering flaws in the flood defence system around the city causing levees and floodwalls to fail

Short term response to Hurricane Katrina

Superdome opened up to 30,000 people seeking shelter in New Orleans, the coastguard and national guard were deployed to evacuate the remaining population from flooded areas and crowded shelters

Long term response to Hurricane Katrina (2005)

US$60bn+ of aid was allocated from federal funds, raised more international aid than 9/11 and the boxing day tsunami, the government spent US$20bn rebuilding New Orleans’ flood defence systems

Typhoon Haiyan (2013)

Category 5 super typhoon - one of the most powerful tropical storms ever recorded, wind speeds of up to 315kmh

Philippines

Most affected country in the world by tropical storms

High population density

What demographic factor of Tacloban forced many residents to build on steep hillside slopes susceptible to landslides during tropical storms - increasing vulnerability

Primary effects of Typhoon Haiyan (2013)

6352 deaths, 6 million + displaced, some areas of East Tacloban washed away altogether, US$2.9bn total damage, major storm surge

Secondary effects of Typhoon Haiyan (2013)

Many local governments collapsed due to officials becoming fatalities, widespread looting, post typhoon Tacloban described as apocalyptic, major flooding, landslides, and fallen trees, Philippine government couldn’t afford to protect Tacloban from secondary effects such as disease forcing international aid to support them, lots of poorly constructed houses in vulnerable areas were exposed