Critical Thinking Final

hypothesis

all sciences involving guessing or speculation; an educated guess to explain phenomena and can be validated using experiments; they depend on what is already believed; they intend to explain the past and/or predict the future

example of hypothesis

if I go out in the sun, then I will get burnt

how are hypotheses different from observations and self-evident beliefs?

they involve a sense of guessing about something that is not obvious; Observations are descriptive, self-evident beliefs are truy by only relying on the meaning of words

6 virtues of hypotheses

conservatism, modesty, simplicity, generality, refutability, precision

conservatism

the fewer beliefs the hypothesis conflicts with, the better

example of conservatism

hypothesis 1: the sink pipe is leaking

hypothesis 2: someone broke in, spilled water, and left without taking anything

hypothesis 1 is better because is is more conservative, hypothesis 2 conflicts with many more beliefs

modesty

doesn’t exaggerate or make huge claims

example of modesty

based on the evidence from my survey of 50 students, it seems that most participants prefer studying in groups. however, since the sample size is limited and only comes from one school, I can’t confidently say this applies to all students”

simplicity

explaining an idea or argument in the clearest, most straightforward way possible without unnecessary complexity

example of simplicity

philosophical revolutions, where a complicated origin story is replaced by another origin story that ties up several loose ends

generality

the wider the range of applicaiton of a hypothesis, the more general is is

example of generality

a hypothesis about cats in general (or all cats) will be able to accommodate an observation we have of a cat more easily than a hypothesis that is very narrow (some cats, or only one special cat)

refutability

can be refuted. if it cannot be refuted, then it probably cannot be confirmed or help predict anything

example of refutabiltiy

“all swans are white” can be refuted if someone observes a black swan; “there is an invisible swan that can’t be seen” can’t be refuted because no observation could ever prove it wrong

precision

the more precise a hypothesis, the more strongly it is confirmed by each successful prediction that it generates

example of precision

general- whenever i eat a sweet pickle, i get a headache

precise- whenever i eat a sweet pickle, i get a headache in the next 10 minutes

inference

a conclusion you draw based on evidence and reasoning

example of inference

if someone slams the door, they are likely upset (know from past experiences)

induction

the generalization of future events given past cases/events

example of induction

the sun will rise tomorrow morning, because it has risen every morning in the past

deduction

occurs when we reach specific conlcusions based on accepted premises; opposite of induction

example of deduction

All humans are mortal.
Socrates is a human.
Therefore, Socrates is mortal.

how is deduction different from induction

deduction goes from the general to the specific, while induction goes from the specific to the general

analogy

to expect something consciously or deliberately. specifically, the leap from past experience to a future event

example of analogy

time is like money, you have to spend it wisely

intuition

relying on a guy feeling as evidence

example of intuition

“I had a bad feeling about flying, and then I saw a plane crash on the news. That confirms that flying is unsafe”

how are intuitions obtained?

past experiences, pattern recognition, emotions, cultural and social influences

confirmaiton

to confirm a hypothesis is to verify that its predictions are good enough, simple enough

example of confirmation

Hypothesis- “If I study for at least one hour each night, my test scores will improve”

Prediction- After a couple of weeks of consistent studying, your quiz and test scores should go up

What happens- You follow the plan, and you scores rise from C’s to B’s and A’s

Confirmation- The improved grades match the prediction, so the hypothesis is confirmed, at least to some degree, because its predictions turned out to be accurate

refutation

if it cannot be refuted, then it probably cannot be confirmed or help predict anyhing

example of refutation

“all swans are white” can be refuted if someone observes a black swan

confirming hypothesis is not hte same thing as establishing its truth, why not?

we do not conclusively show that event B (headache) always happens after event A (eating pickles)

lawlike sentences

a statement that describes a general rule about how things regularly happen in the world, not just a one-time event

example of lawlike sentence

“if metal is heated, it expands” —> lawlike because it is general to all metal, and can be used to explain and predict events

explanation

an explanation should not leave the question of why something happened the way it did or why it is the way it is unanswered

example of explanation

situation- a student’s grades suddenly drops

weak explanation- “they’re just doing worse in school” (doesn’t answer why its happening)

stronger explanation- “the student’s grades dropped because they started working a part-time job, which reduced their study time and led to missed assignments and lower test performance”

how is an explanation different from a description or observation?

an observation/description tells you what happened, an explanation tells you why it happened

what is the difference between teleological and non-teleological explanations?

teleological explanations invade evolutionary explanations often and are a good way of understanding them

persuasion

making others do what we want them to do; takes place in all kinds of places and moments

example of persuasion

lying, bartering, teaching

how is persuasion different in terms of teaching, lying, and plain commanding others

teaching is a form of appropriate persuasion, while lying can be seen as inappropriate. commanding others might not involve any sense of persuasion and may just be a plain statement

the two desires involved in persuasion

the desire to be right and the desire to have been right

example of the desire to be right

a student claims that drinking coffee improves memory, and then they read a study that shows mixed but credible evidence, so they accept that their argument is true

the two uses of language

persuasion and making others do what we want them to do

example of persuasion

“eating fast food every day is unhealthy because its linked to higher risks of heart disease and obesity, so you should try to limit it”

example of making others do what we want

“don’t eat fast food today. go make something at home instead”

testimony

reports that we receive from others and sometimes ourselves, useful and necessary as they are extentions from our own observations and sensory perception

example of testimony

“I ate there last night and the food was amazing, but the service was really slow.”

the two enemies of testimonies

lying and being too credulous or uncritical