Nuclear Weapons: History, Deterrence, and Proliferation

What are nuclear weapons?

Extremely powerful explosives that release energy from the atom itself.

What are the two main ways nuclear explosions can be generated?

Fission (splitting heavy atoms) and Fusion (combining light atoms).

What is the significance of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki?

They remain the first and only wartime uses of nuclear weapons in history.

What was the name of the bomb dropped on Hiroshima?

Little Boy.

what plane dropped the bomb

B-29 → advanced, four-engine propeller-driven heavy bomber used by the U.S. in

WWII (and subsequently Korean War) - the enola gay

What was the estimated death toll in Hiroshima immediately after the bombing?

70,000 to 80,000 people killed instantly.

What was the primary target of the Nagasaki bombing?

Kokura, but the mission pivoted to Nagasaki due to poor visibility.

What logic was behind the quick succession of the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki?

To convince Japan that the U.S. had plenty of atomic devices and would continue using them until surrender.

What was the impact of nuclear weapons on statecraft?

They are vastly more lethal than all previous arms, overwhelming any conceivable policy goal.

How many occasions have nuclear weapons been detonated for testing purposes?

Over 2,000 occasions.

What did Winston Churchill say about the atomic bomb?

"This Atomic bomb is the Second Coming in Wrath."

What was a major concern of American leaders regarding the Soviet Union post-WWII?

Anticipated Soviet conventional superiority.

nuclear possession after 1945

nuclear weapons would be acquired by SU, UK, france, PRC, India, and pakistan isreal and north korea likely too but stockpile number is unclear

What was the outcome of the University of Chicago poll on the atomic bomb in September 1945?

44% supported dropping bombs one city at a time, while 4% would have refused to use them.

What is the difference between traditionalist and revisionist views on the use of the atomic bomb?

Traditionalists argue it forced Japan's surrender, while revisionists suggest it was to signal the USSR.

What was the chief purpose of the military establishment according to Bernard Brodie in 1946?

To avert wars, rather than to win them.

How does the scale of nuclear destruction compare to previous arms?

Nuclear weapons are vastly more lethal, overwhelming any conceivable policy goal. all other weapons start to look "conventional"

deterrence

rather than warfighting, became central to statecraft. Nuclear weapons widely held to be responsible for the "long peace" of the Cold War. a nuclear war can never be won and must never be fought. no major pwoer war since 1945 coexists with unprecedented fear of total annihilation

What is meant by multi-strike capability?

Neither side can launch a first strike that is successful enough to prevent retaliation. - this element and fear goes along with nukes as creating fear of annihilaton.

second trike capability

To understand deterrence, you need to understand retaliatory strike, sometimes referred to as second-strike capability. Second-strike capability → A country's assured ability to respond to a nuclear attack with powerful nuclear retaliation against the attacker. Linked to the concept of "mutually assured destruction

deterrence according to Schelling in 'Arms and Influence'?

To prevent from action by fear of consequences. A threat serves as a deterrent to the extent that it convinces its target not to carry out the intended action because of the costs and losses that target would incur. objective is to persuade the aggressor that the costs of aggression > benefits on the ssumption the target is a rational actor

deterrence theory

holds that nuclear weapons are intended to deter other states from attacking with their nuclear weapons, through the promise of retaliation and,

possibly, MAD Nuclear deterrence can also be applied to an attack by conventional forces. For example, the doctrine of massive retaliation threatened to launch U.S. nuclear weapons in response to Soviet attacks

What are the three requirements for successful nuclear deterrence according to Kenneth Waltz?

1) A part of the nuclear arsenal must survive an attack for retaliation. 2) The state must not respond to false alarms. 3) The state must maintain command and control over nuclear operations.

What is deterrence by denial?

Strong states discourage others attacking them given their ability to rpelsuch an attack (convincing opponents they will not achieve their goals on the battlefield)

What is deterrence by punishment?

Threatening an opponent that retaliation will follow any aggression. The threat is not to defeat an opponent, but to raise the cost of conflict to unacceptably high levels. It is the prospect of fighting the war rather than the possibility of losing it that induces restraint

direct deterrence

Consists of efforts by a state to prevent attacks on its own territory—in the U.S. case, within the territorial boundaries of the United States itself

extended deterrence

Involves discouraging attacks on third parties, such as allies or partners. During the Cold War, direct deterrence involved discouraging a Soviet nuclear attack on U.S. territory; extended deterrence involved preventing a Soviet conventional attack on North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members

What does a successful nuclear deterrent require?

A country must preserve its ability to retaliate before its own weapons are destroyed.

What are the two types of targets in nuclear warfare?

Counterforce and countervalue.

What is counterforce?

The use or threat of force against high-value military targets or nuclear sites while leaving civilian infrastructure (countervalue targets) as undamaged as possible. An ideal counterforce strike should kill no civilians

What is countervalue?

The threat to destroy an adversary's cities and civilian populations (includes population, economic, knowledge targets)

What could lead to the failure of deterrence according to Jervis?

The development of a defensive shield against nuclear attacks or the ability to destroy all adversary's strategic forces in a single first-strike.

What is the security dilemma in the context of nuclear deterrence?

It is difficult to determine the other side's intentions, and decreasing one side's security may make the other less secure.

What does the stability-instability paradox state?

When two countries have nuclear weapons, the probability of direct war decreases, but probability of minor conflicts increases.

What are strategic nuclear weapons?

Long-range delivery (ICBMs, SLBMs, bombers) systems with high yields, designed for large-scale military utility

What are tactical nuclear weapons?

Designed for battlefield use against military targets, usually with lower yields and shorter-range delivery. artillery, short-range missiles, aircraft); lower yields (sub-kiloton to tens of kilotons); framed as more "usable" (but highly controversial

What characterizes the First Nuclear Age?

Lasted from 1945-1991, marked by nuclear competition between the U.S. and the Soviet Union. s theyw ere in an arms race and destabilizing nuclear postures

What defines the Second Nuclear Age?

1991-early 2010s, characterized by the breakdown in major power monopoly, growth of regional nuclear powers and efforts to prevent their proliferation. multipolar nuke age?

What is the Third Nuclear Age?

A renewal of great power competition with the re-emergence of smaller nuclear powers and destabilizing technologies.

Tannenwald

Nuclear taboo, constructivist constraint on nuclear use.

• A constructivist argument: the non-use of nuclear weapons since 1945 is not only explained by deterrence but by a normative taboo developed over time. The taboo is a social fact that constrains leaders even when deterrence logic would not. 0 the author argues that a normative element must be taken into account in explorign why nukes havent been used since 1945, a normative prohibition on nukes ahs developed in the IS as an unacceptable weapon

What is nuclear proliferation?

The spread of nuclear weapons and technology to countries that do not currently possess them.

What was the main goal of the 'Atoms for Peace' initiative?

To share nuclear technology for peaceful purposes like energy and medicine. Idea was to shift nuclear weapons from instruments of war

→ tools of development and progress. - to pivot away from arms race

What institution was created as a result of the 'Atoms for Peace' initiative?

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in 1957. + lots of civilian nuclear programs - buts dual use - tradeoff

What does the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) recognize?

Five nuclear weapons states: U.S., Russia, U.K., France, and China. - they agree not to transfer them and commit to (eventual disarmament) (OG 5 have reduced arsenal 90% since wold war highs + nonnuclear states dont aquire them - civilian technology they can keep with safeguards

What are the three reasons Scott Sagan identifies for why states seek nuclear weapons?

National security, domestic politics, and norms.

How did the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki influence nuclear proliferation?

They created external security threats that prompted other states to seek nuclear weapons.

What does the term 'security dilemma' refer to in the context of nuclear proliferation?

When one state's acquisition of nuclear weapons prompts rival states to do the same for their security. Every time one state acquires nuclear weapons to balance its rival, the security dilemma will

force another state to do the same

debs & monteiro

Per this view, states should not seek weapons if they are

secure, or if they have security guarantees from an ally - ]

shultz

George Schultz summarized,

"proliferation begets proliferation" Every time one state acquires nuclear weapons to balance its rival, the security dilemma will

force another state to do the same

What role did domestic politics play in India's pursuit of nuclear weapons?

It led to a bureaucratic battle among political elites regarding the development of a nuclear deterrent.

What was the public response to Indira Gandhi's nuclear test in India?

Public support for her increased significantly after the test.

What does the concept of norms refer to in the context of nuclear proliferation?

A state's perception of the symbolic significance of nuclear weapons influences its decision to acquire them.

What was De Gaulle's view on France's nuclear weapons?

He believed they were essential for France's global status and independence.

What is the psychological framework proposed by Hymans regarding nuclear proliferation?

It involves national identity conceptions (NICs) that influence a state's decision to pursue nuclear weapons. (like oppositional or sportsmanlike and nationalist or subaltern

What are the two dimensions of national identity conceptions in Hymans' framework?

Solidarity and status.

What does the solidarity dimension refer to?

How a state conceives of itself in relation to others, either as oppositional or sportsmanlike.

What does the status dimension in Hymans' framework entail?

The feeling of equality or superiority a state perceives in relation to others.

What is a potential tradeoff of civilian nuclear programs?

They can create latent nuclear weapons capability due to dual-use technology.

What was the impact of the Cold War on nuclear arsenals?

The original five nuclear-armed states reduced their arsenals by nearly 90% from Cold War highs.

What are some countries that have expressed a desire to acquire nuclear weapons?

Iraq, Libya, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, and Iran.

What three models does Sagan propose to understand nuclear proliferation behavior?

National Identity Conceptions (NICs), models of international political economy, and personalism vs. non-personalism.

gheorghe

logic of nuclear market supply-side proliferation. Author agrees that competition in the nuclear market is the key to understand the conditions that facilitate or thwart the spread of nuclear weapons. Proliferation is a function of the interaction of suppliers, buyers, and thwarters in the nuke market, absence of supplier cartel to regulate transfers of materials & tech =more supply in market=more competition=facilitates the spread