KU POLS 110 Exam 4

Public Opinion

Those opinions held by ordinary citizens which officials take into consideration when they choose to act (sometimes called the general will of the people). Dynamic, frequently irrational, changes quickly.

Sample

A proportion of the larger population

Random Sampling

Demands everyone in the population have an equal chance of being selected for the sample. Sample characteristics should match closely to the population characteristics.

Margin of Error

A degree of imprecision associated with measuring public opinion

What are the 3 things to look for when public opinion is presented?

1. Number of respondents

2. Is the sample random?

3. Margin of error (+ or - 3)

Question Wording

The way in which survey questions are phrased, which influences how respondents answer them

Closed-Ended Questions

These questions offer a set of alternatives defined by the opinion firm or researcher - kind of like a multiple choice test.

Open-Ended Questions

Questions do not offer a set of answers but rather simply asl respondents what they think and allow them to provide the answer.

Stimulate Turnout

If public opinion polls show a tight political race, the perceived value of one's own vote increases and people are more likely to vote. The public's view of the race therefore impacts individual level behavior - voting.

Depress Turnout

If public opinion polls show a landslide in favor of one candidate, the perceived value of individual votes decrease and people are less likely to vote.

Bandwagon Effect

When public opinion polls show a clear leader in the contest, more people are likely to prefer that candidate. Popularity attracts more supporters and people tend to "bandwagon" around the popular candidate.

Underdog Effect

Support for the losing candidate increases as polls show significant disparity in the race. This effect is uncommon but has been empirically demonstrated in some races.

Mirror Model News

A reflection of reality; sometimes labeled as straight news, and does not distort information. Organizations REPORT news, they do not make it.

Professional Model News

Events that are selected as news are attractive to audiences and enhance ratings. Profit is the motive, so scandals and tragedies are reported on.

Organizational Model News

The goals and objectives of news organizations influence the selection of what is newsworthy.

Political Model News

News is in large measure a function of the ideology of reporters and the prevailing political climate. A conservative reporter might report stories that favor their own political dispositions.

Signaler Media

Alerts the public of important developments as soon as they occur; weather, accidents, political change.

Common-Carrier Media

Serves as an open channel through which political leaders and the public can communicate - reporters convey public preferences through public opinion polls about various topics.

Watch Dog Media

Ready to expose any official that violates accepted, legal, ethical, or performance standards. Ex: the Watergate Scandal and the Washington Post - led to the resignation of President Nixon.

Public Representative Media

Serve as the voice of, or advocate for, the people.

Media Example: Ford-Carter Debate

During a debate, Gerald Ford messed up an answer when asked about Soviet domination of Eastern Europe. He claimed that there is no Soviet domination. Right after the debate, many people thought he won. When the papers highlighted his mistake, people changed their minds and started to question his knowledge on foreign affairs and his capability of being president.

Likely-Loser

The candidates campaign is in deep trouble, unable to gain traction and public support through the election.

Front-Runner

The story revolves around the winning formula and how the candidate maneuvers to stay ahead in the race

Bandwagon (Candidate)

Candidates are able to successfully build a lead, create a winning image and engender support centered on identification with a winner

Losing-Ground

Previous support begins to erode and the news media narrative emphasizes a weakened image and vacillating candidate.

Soft News

Audience is introduced to politicians as people - there is laughter and smiles, usually not a lot of political questions. Ex: going on a talk show or a comedy sketch.

Sound Bite

The length of time a presidential candidate is shown speaking uninterrupted on the evening news - a window of opportunity to broadcast a message. It's about 8 seconds long today.

What 3 things contribute to why people are more likely to vote?

1. Money/Wealth

2. Level of Education

3. Experience

Collective Benefit

Benefits that accrue to the entire group, whether or not they all took part

Selective Benefit

Benefits that are received only by those that participate

Material Benefit

Working for a campaign may lead to a job offer from candidate or position in government

Solitary Benefit

These are intangible benefits such as stratus, friendship, deference, or recognition as leader and involved citizen

Intrinsic Benefits

These benefits develop from a personal satisfaction of performing a valued function, civic duty, or volunteering for a worthy cause.

Direct Stake Benefits

People that have a direct stake in the political outcome will likely participate. Ex: parents who have children are more likely to participate in the PTA.

Strongly Favored Outcome Benefits

Those people who strongly favor one election outcome to another are more likely to participate - they anticipate a greater policy benefit from the outcome than those who preferences are weaker.

Gerrymandering

Drawing district boundaries to favor a specific party.

Apportionment

Occurs every ten years with the US census, and it's the process of allocation of districts to states.

What is the timeline of the nomination process?

1. Invisible Primaries

2. Primaries and Caucuses

3. Convention

4. General Election

5. Election Day