Factors effecting voting - notes

Class

Historically L dominated C2 , D and E who are Skilled workers and working class - Won 64% of DE in 1964
Con dominated A, B and C1 who are shop owners managers and professionals - Won 78% AB in 1964
Not always consistent - Thatcher targeted Cardiff in 1979 after Callaghan’s Winter of Discontent leading to an 11% swing
2017 AB voters backed Labour to ‘punish’ the Tories for Brexit

Region

Traditional Con strongholds in S and SE due to high property ownership rates and low industrial trade unionism
Epping forest has always been a Con seat
Con also control most of the S and E areas but also ones which are dominantly ethnically white
Lab dominate in areas of ethnic diversity and large working class populations such as Manchester and South Wales
London is a Lab stronghold and they have increased their vote % from 2010 - 2019 by 11.5%
Overall, voting has become much more erratic with increasing party dealignment and the number of safe seats
2024 - 3 ex Tory PM lost seats - Cameron, Truss, May

Age

Con has older voting base than Lab or LD
Due to old policies such as cheaper housing which appealed to older people as they had he money to profit from these policies
This was one of Thatcher’s policies as she believed owning a house give the owner a stake in the state and increasing desire from stability and protection
2019 election property status - Owners = 57% C, 22% L , Renters = 32% C, 45% L
2024 GE age - 18-24 = 41% L, 5% C , 65+ = 23% L, 45% C
This is due to younger voters preferring policies concerned with social justice and the environment which is more important to the Labs rather than the Cons
This boosts Cons as older voter have a much higher average turnout than younger voters - 37% vs 73%
Lab also committed to abolish tuition fees under Corbyn furthering youth dominance - Youthquake 2017

Ethnicity

Immigrants to GB tended to be in C2, d or E class meaning that they were more likely to vote labour due to their more generous policies on welfare spending and links to trade unions
Lab success with ethnic minorities furthered by the 3 Race Relations Acts in the 60’s and 70’s, aiming to ban discrimination in workplace
2024 - Lab won 59/75 London seats which is one of the most ethnically diverse - 54% is White British
Con have success within British Asian communities - Harrow East (45% pop is British Asian) = Increased by 22%, held since 2010

Education

Higher levels of education tend to indicate a higher social class and therefore and increased likelihood to vote Con
Was the case but no longer since 2017
How those with a degree or higher voted:
2017 - 48% L and 33% C
2019 - 39% L and 34% C
2024 - 43% L and 19% C

Gender

Post SSW Lab heavily linked with male dominated trad unionism which led to increased inflation ,as seen by the Winter of Discontent under Callaghan, allowing the Cons to appeal to the vote of housewives
Macmillan associated Con with stable family lives which was added to under thatcher due to favourable house purchasing policies
Divisions between gender faded as of recent and since 2015 they have not been anymore than 3% apart

Governing copetence

Core reason for choosing who to vote is how well will they govern - valence factors
If they deem the current gov unable to deal w challenges they have faced properly can lead to protest votes in favour of the opposition
Callaghan poor dealing with strikes due to the 1978 Winter of Discontent - “Crisis, what crisis?” led to increasing support for Thatcher

Leadership

Huge factor in choosing who to vote as leader of chosen party will be the PM
2001 Blair dominated politics and strong media portrayal → No chance for Hague → 166 seat majority
Opposition party leaders - 2010 Cameron focussed on Browns poor handling of global financial crash in 2008 so much that didn’t advocate enough for Con leading to hung par and coalition with LD, also UKIP heavy focus on immigration appealed to working class DE voters, taking potential votes away from Lab → Slim tory victory 12 seat majority

Campaign

Generally not as important as leadership - Lab hugely improved campaign from ‘83 → ‘87 but only gained 3% because neither Foot or Kinnock were strong enough to challenge Thatcher’s personality
Must be broad enough to appeal to not only core voters - Lab ‘83 was too socialist so only appealed to core voters, not swing ones - Thatcher win
Are influential - Recent increase in partisan dealignment means that voters are more flexile in their decisions with much less party loyalty, In 2017 Corbyn’s optimism contrasted May’s campaign leading to Lab increasing support by 10% from pre-campaign → Con rely on confidence and supply from DUP, 2010 Cleggmania led to coalition between LD and Con
Not influential - Impact is exaggerated as voters have generally made their mind up already - 2019 Con campaigned heavily for Brexit but polling showed negligible change in support levels

Voter turnout and trends

Low recently and in easily predictable years : 2001 = 59.4%, 2019 = 59.7%
Age is a huge factor which heavily advantages Cons as the older a person is the more likely they are to vote for Con and more likely to vote in general
2024 = 37% of 18-24 years olds voted, 73% of 65+ year olds voted
Lower classes are also less likely to vote further advantaging the Conservatives
2024 - AB voters had over 20% higher turnout than DE voters

Manifesto

Indicates how a party will govern
Simplicity of policy is important for voters as, due to low levels of trust within politics, there is less that politicians can twist
2019: Lab wanted to renegotiate brexit terms and hold a 2nd referendum, whereas Con, “ Get brexit done”
Media also can twist polices such as Con’s social care funding was labelled a “dementia tax” as it unfairly effected wealthy pensioner whilst protecting less wealthy ones
2017: Lab proposed a higher tax bracket for the top 5% of earners - “For the many not the few” but also to abolish tuition fees which hugely increased support amongst the younger voters - 2017 Youthquake, over 60% of 18-24 voted Lab

Issue based voting

Voting based on party stance on certain issues - Instrumental voting
Shows the increasing importance of a manifesto as voters will base decisions on how each party will be dealing with the issue most important to that voter
Leads to parties creating focus groups where they aim to find out which issues the electorate feel most strongly about, allowing them to tailor both their manifesto and campaigns towards that issue
Shows how voters vote rationally and based on self-interest
In 2015 - Rise in Euroscepticism = Rise of UKIP (12.6% vote, 1 seat, FPTP)
2017 - Brexit deals , Lab focussed on tuition fees and new top tax bracket
2019 - Brexit deals, “Get brexit done” - Voter apathy
2024 - Immigration, cost of living, stance on war