FINAL COMB 1979, 1997, 2024 CASE STUDY ELECTIONS

What demographic issues affected the core vote 1979?

- Impact of the strikes on their lives prompted many skilled workers to consider voting Conservative

- Positive way press covered Thatcher's campaign

- Liberal party were tainted by scandal so many people voted Conservative instead

What valence factors affected the floating and swing voters 1979?

- conservatives focused on record of labour government

- particularly focused on failure to deal with excessive trade union pay claims

What was the political situation like in 1979?

- winter of discontent August 1978

- strikes started at Ford but public sector workers joined

- 1979 20,000 railwaymen held 4 one day strikes

- 1,250,000 civic workers organised a one day strike 2nd Jan

- grave diggers strike in Merseyside, press slander trade unions for their lack of sympathy

How did the labour government deal with the winter of discontent?

- careless attitude to strikes and failed to deal with them

- Callaghan commented, on his return from a summit with world leaders, that there was "no mounting chaos in Britain", exposing how out of touch he was

- this promoted the headline in The Sun, "Crisis? What crisis?"

- negative media coverage may have contributed to the Labour gov's failure-> images of the winter of discontent dominated the media

How was Labour's campaign unsuccessful 1979?

- Callaghan decided to hold the election in early 1979 instead of October 1978, which was a bad decision as the 'Winter of Discontent' had transformed the political landscape (things worsened not improved)-> political miscalculation as this was detrimental to his reputation

- March 1979 government lost a vote of no-confidence in Parliament on the issue of Scottish devolution -> alienated the SNP and Liberal party who the Labour Party relied on

- Most of the press supported the Conservatives eg the Times/Sun/Daily Mail -> negative media prescence, winter of discontent dominated media

- labour seen as incompetent causing large numbers of labour voters to abandon their traditional loyalties

How was the Conservative's campaign successful 1979?

- fought campaign by hammering away at the unpopularity oof the gov -> focused on central issues like unemployment, law and order and the excessive power of the unions

- focused on earning the votes of traditional Labour voters, first time voters and voters in marginal seats constituencies

- conservatives seen as more competent

- gained a majority of 43 seats (comfortable majority)

How did Margret Thatcher's party leader image help the conservatives to win?

- campaign managed by her publicity director Gordon Reece (former TV producer)

- Reece employed advertising agency Saatchi & Saatchi-> responsible for the success of the 'Labour isn't working' campaign

- polished Thatcher's public image

- counterbalanced her hard convictions with a more softened image to broaden her appeal

- advertising campaign highlighted the weaknesses of the Labour gov and its negative impact on the economy

What were labours policies 1979?

- curb inflation/prices

- new framework to improve industrial relations

- returning to full employment

- power to the individual/neighbourhood not bureaucrats

- use Britain's influence to strengthen world peace and defeat world poverty

What were the conservative's policies 1979?

- control inflation

- strike fair balance between the rights and duties of the trade union movements

- restore incentives so that hard work pays, success is rewarded and genuine new jobs are created in an expanding economy

- uphold parliament/ rule of law

- supporting family life-> help people become home owners and raising standards of children's education

- welfare services for the sick, old, disabled

- strengthen Britain's defences

- work with allies to protect Britain's interests

How did the region impact how people voted 1979?

Conservatives continued to have support across South and Midlands

How did class impact how people voted 1979?

Conservative support dramatically increased across all social classes, particularly with core C2 voters

How did gender impact how people voted 1979?

Thatcher's housewife image increased conservative support among women

How did age impact how people voted 1979?

Increase in support for the Conservatives among young people

How did ethnicity impact how people voted 1979?

More minority voters supported the labour party than did the general electorate (race relations key reason)

What were the results of the 1979 election?

Cons won 43.9% of the vote

Majority of 43 seats

5.2% swing to conservatives from labour

who ran in the 1997 general election?

- John Major (con)

- Tony Blair (lab)

what was new labour?

- ideological shift/radical restructuring of the labour party

- abandoning nationalisation

- legal restrictions on unions

- didn't mention socialism (didn't scare away voters)

- more centrist policy platform (more popular)

- promises of devolution referendums for Scotland and wales

- didn't undo privitisation of industry (promised businesses that capitalism would be safe under new labour)

- fiscal responsibility and limited gov spending

- desire to create a 'stakeholder society' where everyone had gov-protected investments and pensions

- closer ties w Europe as well as maintaining 'special relationship w the US'

- nomination of more female candidates using all-women shortlists

john major's campaign

- sought to rebuild public trust in the cons following a series of scandals and setbacks

- majors gov seen as 'tired'

- campaigned on the strength of the economic recovery

- however faced internal divisions over EU membership

tony blair's campaign

- opinion polls showed strong support for blair personally - was youthful, down to earth, 'normal' man

- blair won a personal public endorsement from the sun newspaper two months before the vote

- labour's party election broadcast were optimistic/inspiring which helped to gain support from beyond their core vote

- spin doctors - Alastair Campbell and Peter Mandelson provided a clear cut campaign, established new political brand

- new labour - used phrase 'cool Britannia' to reflect new direction of the party, stopped presenting its policies in terms of class struggle, fresh and new

Mondeo man

- tony blairs idea of the sort of person who had to switch from con to lab in order for lab to win in 1997

- Blair himself was 'aspirational' (drove a ford Mondeo, seen as relatable)

- wanted to develop policies that would help people socially advance and reward people for it, rather than those that sought to redistribute money from the wealthy to the poorest

demographic factors 1997

- governing competence - major associated with incompetence, disunity and corruption. blair seen as more dynamic

- leadership - tony blair was highly popular, centerpiece of the campaign and highly effective campaigner

valence factors 1997

- dissatisfaction with con - lab emphasised the divisions in the conservative gov and successfully picked up disenchanted con voters (moderate and suburban ones)

- new labour appeal - more attractive to middle class voters with modernisation within the party

weaknesses of the conservatives 1997

- disunified after Thatcher's policies divided them

- divided over Europe

- economic decline/hardship after recession at the beginning of the 80s and 90s made cons unpopular

- tory sleaze - several con MPs involved in scandals of corruption and illicit affairs (public lost faith)

how did gender affect how people voted 1997?

45% of men voted lab

44% of women voted lab

31% of men voted con

32% of women voted con

how did age affect how people voted 1997?

- lab gained more votes than the cons in every age group

- those aged 55+ more likely to vote con

how did region affect how people voted 1997?

- lab gained highest proportion of votes in the north with 62%

- cons gained highest proportion of votes in the south east at 41%

how did ethnicity affect how people voted 1997?

- 70% of non white voters voted lab as well as the majority of white voters

- 18% of non white voters voted con

how did occupation affect how people voted 1997?

c1 and c2 swing voters to lab from the con party

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Reasons Labour Won 2024

-Liz Truss' mini budget and declining value of the pound

-Weak Conservative leadership - Liz Truss' 49 day tenure, Sunak as the second choice (things can only get better, 10 Downing Street)

-Conservative scandals - Partygate (2022), Chris Pincher, Sunak's wife claiming non-dom status

-Divided Conservative Party (50 resignations under Johnson)

-Conservatives had already been in power for 15 years

Differences between 2024 and 1997

-Minor party surges, e.g. - Reform got 5 more seats (from 0)

-Kier's leadership isn't as strong as Blair's

FPTP 2024

-Labour won 34% of the vote in 2024. This means that they were not actually that popular.

-The voter turnout in 2024 was 60%, 9% less than in 2019, meaning that even less people actually supported Labour.

-In 2017, Corbyn had gotten 42% of the vote but Labour still lost.

-Although Labour did technically win by a landslide in 2024, this was more due to FPTP (and Conservative failures) than their own popularity, as was the case in 1997.

Conservative Failures 2024

-Weak leadership -> Liz Truss' 49-day tenure, Rishi Sunak as second best (10 drowning street, things can only get better)

-Scandals -> Matt Hancock, Partygate, Rishi's wife claiming non-dom status, Chris Pincher

-Divided -> 50 resignations under Johnson, May never passed a Brexit bill due to too many factions and opposition (from Johnson)

-Voterbase split -> the Conservative voter base got divided between them and Reform

Economics Manifesto 2024

-Both Labour and Conservatives pledged to not raise income tax (this resulted in Angela Rayner's fiscal drag)

-Reform UK pledged to raise the income tax personal allowance to £20,000

-Labour pledged to close the loophole allowing private equity fund managers to pay Capital Gains instead of income tax

Health Manifesto 2024

-The Green Party pledged to increase NHS spending by £50bil a year by 2030.

-Labour has committed to training 10,000 more nurses and midwives per year

Immigration Manifesto 2024

-Conservatives planned to continue with the Rwanda policy (largely viewed as ineffective, delayed by the Lords)

Environment & Energy Manifesto 2024

-Labour pledged to create a nationalised energy company called Great British Energy

Rise of Minor Parties 2024

-Reform won 5 seats (and 14.3% of the vote)

-Six independent MPs were elected in 2024

Campaigning 2024

-The social media election

-Labour -> £8.5 mil

-Conservatives -> £7.2 mil

-Reform -> £2.5 mil

-Greens -> £1.3 mil

Class Voting 2024

-All classes had relatively similar vote distributions.

-Compared to 2019, the Conservatives lost 30 points of their C2 voters in 2024. This suggests that the pro-Brexit "red wall" voters from the 2019 election have largely left the Conservatives.

Media was influential 2024

-TV coverage per party influenced their popularity, e.g. - in the penultimate week before the election, Farage accounted for nearly 10% of all coverage. Reform gained 5 seats (from 0).

Media Was Not Influential 2024

-If the election result seems obvious, there may be editorial disengagement. In the 25 (week) days leading up to the 2024 election, 44% of BBC News at 10's stories were completely unrelated to the election.

-8.2 million people watched Kier and Rishi's first debate. This was important as it was an opportunity for Sunak to prove himself against poor popularity voting. This was largely unsuccessful.

-Majorly just re-enforced the 2 party system. 66% of all political party appearances on mainstream TV bulletins were either Conservatives or Labour.

Newspapers Were Not Influential 2024

-The Sun left it very late to announce their alignment ("It's time for a change" on election day).

Social Media Was Influential 2024

-Parties used social media to reach a wider audience, e.g. - parties used Facebook 2nd most, which is the most widely used social media for news in the UK. Also, parties targeted politically-interested audiences on X, and TikTok was used to target younger voters.

What was the outcome of the 2024 General Election

Labour won a landslide victory winning 411 seats, Conservatives lost massively after 14 years of power only being left with 121 seats. Lib Dems also made massive gains winning 72 seats

How did class affect the outcome of the 2024 General Election

According to YouGov polling class had a limited effect on the election with classes broadly voting for each party to the same extent - except Reform who received 10% more C2DE votes

How did valence affect the 2024 General Election

Numerous past Tory Scandals and the economy crashed by Liz Truss had a huge effect on the Tory's percieved ability to lead and Keir Starmer the ex-CPS prosecutor presented a fresh competent face to lead.

How popular were the leaders in the 2024 General Election

Rishi Sunak had a net popularity of -22% whereas Keir Starmer had a net popularity of 1% - suggesting that Labour were considered the lesser of two evils

What won the Labour party the 2024 General Election

Years of Conservative leadership and recent economic decline had made Labour an enticing opportunity.

What was the regional voting trend in the 2024 General Election

Labour had most gains in the north east and won in every region except the south but only by a small margin.

What was the class voting trend in the 2024 General Election

ABC1 tended to lean towards the right - voting more for the Conservative and Lib Dems than C2DE but both groups still voted overwhelmingly in support of Labour 36% and 33%. Reform found greater support from C2DE

What was the gender voting trend in the 2024 General Election

It was generally pretty equally split Labour 35%, LibDem 12%, Conservatives were less equal with women 3% more likely to vote Tory and Reform had 17% men compared to 12%

What was the age voting trend in the 2024 General Election

65+ was massively pro Tory with 42% with support diminishing with age, Green supported started high in the youngest voters at 18% and went down as people got older, Lib Dem was fairly evenly split but higher in younger voters, Labour support is the same - even split but slightly higher in youth but more support overall

What was the significance of media in the 2024 General Election

The most prominent campagin in this election was Ed Davey's stunts - each one represented a specific issue and involved roller coasters, paddle boarding and riding a bike down a massive hill. Rishi Sunak announcing the election in the rain to the tune of 'thing can only get better' was memorable for all the wrong reasons.