Hazards and Years/Location

Complexity paradigm example

both cat 5, same location(honduras + felix also in Nicaragua) Hurricane Mitch(11k dead, 5bil), Hurricane Felix(135 dead, 845mil), rain higher in Mitch, but increased planning, relocating people, less vulnerable

Hurricane Mitch, Honduras

1998

Hurricane Felix, Honduras + Nicaragua

2007

Typhoon Herb, Taiwan

1996

Chi-Chi Earthquake, Taiwan

1999

Typhoon Toraji, Taiwan

2001

Event order matters Taiwan

1996 Typhoon Herb(cat 5, more rain), 1999 Chi-Chi Earthquake(M7.6), 2001 Typhoon Toraji(cat 3, but 5x as many landslides as Herb)

Cyclone Gabriel, NZ

2023

Cyclone Bhola, Pakistan

1970

Chile Earthquake

1960

Tohoku, Japan

2011, also Fukushima

Chernobyl, Ukraine/USSR

1986

Abbotsford Landslide

1979

Mt St Helens

1980

Taieri Flood

1980

San Francisco Earthquake

1906

Loma Prieta Earthquake

1989

Armero, Colombia Volcano

1985

Krakatau Indonesia Eruption

1883

Tatapouri Tsunami

1947

Kaikoura Tsunami

2016, run up in goose bay

Wairarapa Tsunami

1855

Tracy Arm Tsunami and Landslide

2025

Vajont Dam, Italy landslide

1963

Fiordland landslide and tsunami

2003

Hurricane Examples (5-7)

Hurricane Mitch 1998+Felix 2007, Hurricane Katrina 2005, Typhoon Herb 1996+ Typhoon Toraji 2001, Cyclone Gabrielle 2023, Cyclone Bhola 1970

Flood/River examples(3)

Taieri 1980, Leith, Kissimmee River, Florida

Earthquake potential examples (3/4)

Franz Josef + AF8(Alpine Fault), Akatore Fault, QLDC(Nevis-Cardrona)

Earthquake examples real (5/6)

Chile 1960, Christchurch Earthquake Sequence(Darfield 2010, Christchurch 2011), Tohoku 2011, San Francisco 1906, Loma Prieta 1989

Volcano examples(4)

Auckland Volcanic Field, Taupo Volcano, Armero Colombia 1985, Mt St Helens 1980

Landslide examples(3)

Abbotsford 1979, Vajont Dam Italy 1963, Cook Strait Canyon

Tsunami examples(6)

Krakatau, Indonesia 1883(volcano), Tatapouri 1947, Kaikoura 2016(landslide), Wairarapa 1855, Fiordland 2003(landslide), Tracy Arm, Alaska 2025(no eq, only landslide)

Tech(5)

Fukushima 2011, Chernobyl 1986, The Aral Sea (1960 scheme), Exxon Valdez 1989, Deepwater Horizon 2010

Hurricane Katrina 2005

cat 3, New Orleans, LA, high tide, cat 5 storm surge + heavy rain, walls collapsed=most damage, 80% city flooded, levees + walls breached 50 places, 80% city flooded, $105bil losses

Chernobyl 1986, Ukraine

experiment w/inexperienced workers, how long turbine would turn before diesel generator was needed, power decreased below 20%=unstable, steam built up and blew roof off, released plume of radioactive dust. bankrupted USSR, 30 dead, 350k displaced, ongoing issue forever to contain, traveled 100km concentrated in areas with more rain, radiation bioaccumulates

Fukushima 2011, Japan

designed to withstand M8.2, knew walls were underdesigned bc earthquake hazard was higher than that. M9.0 Earthquake triggered reactor shutdown, backups pumped seawater to keep cool, struck by 14m waves(over double walls), walls overtopped and breached, hit 10-13 backup generators=fail, insufficient cooling = 3 nuclear meltdowns, hydrogen-air explosions and release of radioactive material. Deaths from evacuation and cancer, no direct. Ocean radiation spread to US and Alaska, not enough to harm but danger is it reaches entire world, soil and water contamination. Halted Japan nuclear, now 54 to 13 plants, transition to coal power, very strict safety measures required for new reactors, very expensive. $50 billion

Franz Josef

glacier tourism reliant, remote, Southern Alps. M8 Alpine Fault risk runs directly through town, debris flow and rock avalanche and flood hazard. Glacial retreat has a rockfall hazard. Fault avoidance zone proposal: 100-200m zone with restrictions on fault, community pushback and scrapped(bad). Tonkin and Taylor: relocate entire town, remove key assets from fault and river, remove river gravel and build up stop banks. requires accepting risk(2-3), still had pushback, not moving, some extra measures now taken

1960 Chile Earthquake

M9.5, largest earthquake in human history, 1000km rupture, 30m displacement, devastating tsunamis that reached NZ(flooded gisborne warf, took 12-14 hours to hit) and landslides

2011 Tohoku Earthquake, Japan

potential for what could happen in NZ east coast NI off Hikurangi. M9.0, 4-8min shaking, tsunami, fire, liquefaction, power loss, dam broke, 19k dead. japan trench and H are on ring of fire, 9.0 potential, depth and angle of plates, similiar length and geological framework, and hikurangi has historically produced big tsunamis, every 500yrs w/big deposits

Christchurck Earthquake Sequence

Darfield 2010 M7.1(40 sec shaking, 4bil, 1 death, unknown fault), Christchurch 2011 aftershock M6.3 (40-55bil, 185 dead, 10sec shaking)-lower mag but higher intensity, promoted unsecured masonry clause on Building Act

Akatore Fault

M7-7.5(history >7), earthquake clusters, 3 over 10k years almost 800yrs ago, shaking, tsunami and liquefaction risk, comparable to christchurch, 15km from Dunedin, 37km long

Abbotsford Landslide 1979

deforestation destabilized the ground, increased water percolation, cut the bottom of the slope for housing, destabilized the slope, dip slope, geology: porous green island sandstone over ab. mudstone which is weak when wet, heavy rain clogged mudstone very unstable, residents noticed cracking, slope failed

Vajont Dam Landslide, Italy 1963

Increased water level on steep geology, water made it unstable, mountainside failed, caused megatsunami that overtopped dam and flooded and destruction of towns below, disregarded warnings that mountain was unstable

Mt St Helens 1980

earthquake caused largest landslide in history, magma and gas expand and exploded violently, melted glaciers and caused huge lahars

Auckland Volcanic Field

hot spot in mantle 80-100km below auckland where rocks melt and form magma which rises quickly in a matter of days, if it rose slower it would cool and solidify. don’t know where magma will rise, can only detect crustal activity. high population density is big risk even though eruptions don’t occur very often. new volcanoes formed by eruption, old ones won’t re-erupt. Process: water/phreatomagmatic —> dry —> lava flow. magma encounters water which turns to steam and fragments magma into lots of little pieces, shatters magma and rock, ash thrown up hundreds of me, most violent eruption in auckland. Dry, magma is propelled by gases once water is gone, developed fire fountain(attracts viewers, rare injuries), which cool and hard on ground and form lumps called scoria. feed lava flows which can burn things and push apart structures

Taupo Volcano

single large volcano that has erupted a lot and will erupt again, formed lake taupo from eruption that buried central north island in ash. eruption can trigger earthquakes or cause tsunamis in even minor unrest(from lake or ocean)

Krakatau Indonesia

1883, only volcanic eruption triggered tsunami that has hit nz

Cook strait canyon

large submarine landslides that would have caused tsunami, scarps and toe at bottom with debris

Aral sea

was 3rd largest sea in the world, 1960 scheme to divert river for irrigation with very high losses from canals(12% sealed), now 10% of original volume, salinity increased, fishery collapsed, in two parts, river doesn’t reach sea, 100k displaced, decreased life expectancy and illness