GARP SCR Ch1: What is climate change?

A large insurance company in South America expands use of climate scenario analysis. The company used RCPs in previous scenario analyses but now hires an actuary with climate expertise to incorporate SSPs in this process.

How can the actuary advise the insurance company to use SSPs going forward?

Combine SSPs with different RCPs to assess climate policy options.

Warming is...

more on the northern hemisphere than the tropics & southern hemisphere

How much has CO2 increased compared to pre-industrial age?

CO2 has increased by 140-ppm compared to pre-industrial age

Water vapour...

Water vapor emissions directly from the human activities have negligible impact on its atmospheric abundance

Greenhouse effect...

is a natural process which has been there even before the industrial age

Scenario analysis

- Scenarios are forward looking and use varied assumptions

- A company can internally develop its models and scenarios or make use of existing publicly available scenarios

What's a proxy that truly indicates climate variation for a time period older than any of the recorded measurements

Speleothems (e.g., stalactites and stalagmites): These cave structures can yield estimates of the climate in the region around the cave over the past few hundred thousand years.

What's the relationship between sea level rise and GHG emissions?

Sea level rise lags GHG emissions

Anthropogenic vs natural climate change

Human activities accelerated the temperature change. In fact, the change has been 16 times faster since the last ice ageIn fact, the change has been 16 times faster since the last ice age

How much of the heat trapped by GHG goes into heating the oceans rather than landmasses?

93% (majority) of the heat trapped by the greenhouse gases goes into heating the oceans rather than landmasses

As of early 2024, how much has the climate warmed since the nineteenth century?

A.0.2°C

B.1.3°C

C.2.5°C

D.4°C

1.3°C

Which of the following do scientists use to estimate Earth's climate history over the past million years?

A.Thermometers

B.Ice cores

C.Tree rings

D.Speleothems

Ice cores

Which of the following greenhouse gases has the highest GWP?

A.Carbon dioxide

B.Methane

C.Water vapor

D.Nitrous oxide

Nitrous oxide

If a climate policy reduces both greenhouse gases and aerosols in our atmosphere, what happens to the temperature of the climate system?

A.A reduction in greenhouse gases and aerosols both tend to cool the climate, so the combination will lead to cooling.

B.A reduction in greenhouse gases tends to cool the climate, while a reduction in aerosols tends to warm it, so the final effect will be the difference of these offsetting terms.

C.A reduction in greenhouse gases and aerosols both tend to warm the climate, so the combination will lead to warming.

D.A reduction in greenhouse gases tends to warm the climate, while a reduction in aerosols tends to cool it, so the final effect will be the difference of these offsetting terms.

A reduction in greenhouse gases tends to cool the climate, while a reduction in aerosols tends to warm it, so the final effect will be the difference of these offsetting terms.

How confident are experts that Earth's climate is presently changing?

A.It is beyond doubt (99% confidence) that the climate is warming.

B.It is extremely likely (95% confidence) that the climate is warming.

C.It is likely (66% confidence) that the climate is warming.

D.It is more likely than not (51% confidence) that the climate is warming.

It is beyond doubt (99% confidence) that the climate is warming.

As of 2023, how much warming is predicted for the twenty-first century under the most-likely emissions scenario?

A.2°C

B.3°C

C.4°C

D.5°C

3°C

Which of the following accurately describes the impacts of modern climate change?

A.The southern hemisphere will experience higher than average warming

B.Global rainfall increases will be unevenly distributed

C.Global sea levels will increase at a constant rate

D.The northern hemisphere will experience higher than average tipping points

Global rainfall increases will be unevenly distributed

Which of the following is an example of mitigation?

A.Transitioning to a mix of zero-emission energy sources

B.Building a seawall to protect from sea level rise

C.Adding sulfur to the stratosphere

D.Expanding forested areas to improve environmental quality

Transitioning to a mix of zero-emission energy sources

Which of the following is an example of carbon dioxide removal?

A.Phasing out coal power

B.Building a seawall to protect from sea level rise

C.Adding sulfur to the stratosphere

D.BECCS

BECCS = Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage

The Paris Agreement states that the world should work to hold the increase in global average temperatures to

A."well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels" while "pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels."

B."well below 3°C above pre-industrial levels" while "pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 2°C above pre-industrial levels."

C."well below 2°C above today's temperature" while "pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above today's temperature."

D."well below 2°C above 1950-2000 temperature" while "pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above that period's temperature."

"well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels" while "pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels."