Middle East Climate and Political Economy Lecture

This set of vocabulary flashcards covers key climate science terms, international agreements, and geopolitical concepts specific to the Middle Eastern context as discussed in the lecture notes.

Absolute Decoupling

Economic growth occurs while emissions fall year-over-year in absolute terms; the gold standard goal, with Bahrain and Jordan approaching this in the Middle East.

Relative Decoupling

The economy grows faster than emissions grow; emissions still rise but more slowly than GDP, achieved by Tunisia, Lebanon, and Djibouti.

Net-Zero Pledges

Commitments to balance GHG emissions with removals; UAE's target is 2050, whereas Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Kuwait have set theirs for 2060.

Carbon Subsidies

Government support for fossil fuel production through low royalties, tax breaks, infrastructure, and industry bailouts; they are a key reason the energy transition is slow.

Rentier State

A state that derives primary income from external rents such as oil/gas revenues or foreign aid rather than taxing citizens, creating a no-taxation-no-accountability dynamic.

Resource Rents

Revenues from direct extraction and export of fossil fuels, forming the core of Gulf economies including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Libya, and Iran.

Strategic Rents

Foreign aid or remittances received by non-oil states like Jordan, Egypt, Lebanon, and Yemen from oil-rich states or Western allies in exchange for political alignment.

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)

Voluntary, self-differentiated, and non-binding country-level climate pledges under the Paris Agreement.

Paris Agreement (COP21, 2015)

Landmark climate treaty with 196 parties aiming to limit warming to $1.5^\text{o}\text{C}$ above preindustrial levels based on voluntary NDCs.

UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

The 1992 treaty establishing the international legal framework for climate negotiations and parent of the Kyoto Protocol and Paris Agreement.

1997 Kyoto Protocol

The first binding international treaty on GHG emissions requiring developed nations to cut emissions, though the U.S. never ratified it.

Green Climate Fund (GCF)

UN fund capitalized at $\text{\$10B}+$ by 2015 with a $\text{\$3B}$ U.S. pledge to help developing countries with climate adaptation and mitigation.

Mitigation vs. Adaptation

Mitigation involves reducing emissions to limit warming, while Adaptation refers to adjusting to current or future climate impacts.

Loss and Damage (Reparations)

Compensation for climate harms already suffered by vulnerable nations who contributed little to emissions; established as a concept at COP27.

COP27 (Egypt, 2022)

Climate summit in Sharm el-Sheikh criticized for greenwashing and attendance of 600+ fossil fuel delegates, which agreed in principle on a loss and damage fund.

COP28 (UAE, 2023)

The first COP to acknowledge fossil fuels' role in warming, hosted by UAE oil executive Sultan Al Jaber, using weak 'transition away' language.

Direct Air Capture (DAC)

Expensive and energy-intensive technology that sucks $CO_2$ directly from the atmosphere.

James Hansen

NASA climatologist who warned Congress in 1988 about climate change and recently predicted temperatures could reach $1.7^\text{o}\text{C}$ above preindustrial by 2027.

Aramco

Saudi state oil company that reported record profits of $\text{\$161.1B}$ in 2022, which are reinvested into expanded fossil fuel production.

NEOM/ 'The Line'

A $\text{\$500B}+$ Saudi megaproject (estimates now in trillions) featuring a 100-mile horizontal skyscraper, symbolizing post-oil ambition financed by oil.

Operation Mare Nostrum

Italian naval humanitarian operation conducted from 2013 to 2014 in the Mediterranean to rescue migrants.

Survival Migration

Migration driven by conditions like climate, conflict, and persecution that make remaining in a homeland impossible.

Ruling Bargain

The political formula in Gulf states where the regime provides employment, subsidies, and healthcare in exchange for citizens' political acquiescence.

Solarification / Electrification

Rabinowitz's pathway to a $70\text{--}80\%$ emission reduction, predicated on transportation going electric and electricity going solar.

RCP Pathways (IPCC)

Four scenarios ranging from 'business as usual' (RCP 8.5) to stringent cuts (RCP 2.6); current trajectory points to $3\text{--}4^\text{o}\text{C}$ by 2100.

Climate Security

The intersection of climate change and national/international security, including resource conflicts, displacement, and state fragility.

Syrian Conflict & Climate Theory

A flawed theory pushed by the old Assad government attributing the 2011 uprising to drought; Daud argues political repression was the cause.

Alvarez: Genocide in 21st Century

Argues genocide remains possible due to persistent nationalism and dehumanization, suggesting climate migration could fuel genocidal conditions.

Rabinowitz: Gulf Solar Advantages

Identifies four advantages: abundant sunshine ($300$ days/yr, $2000+\,kWh/m^2$), vast unproductive land, accumulated capital, and a track record of infrastructure innovation.