2017 GE

Result

• Hung Plmt (2nd time in 7 years)

• C pledged to carry on with DUP support

Number of C seats lost

13

C % of vote

42.4% (6% more than Cameron in 2015)

L % vote

40% (more votes than Blair in 2005)

L number of seats gained

30 seats

2 reasons for early election

1. To provide a mandate and stability to deal with Brexit

2. C were 20pts ahead of L and were looking at a 100 seat majority

Actual logistics of calling the election

• May had to get L’s backing due to the FTPA (which she did)

Result in 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

• SNP losses

  • Mainly C gain but some L and LD due to anti-nationalist sentiment

Gender gap

• Equal for women

• Men 6% more C

2 L geographical gains

1. Rural SE

2. London

Class divisions

• Minimal — continued class adn partisan dealignment

  • C gained in C2DE

  • L gained in ABC1

C % lead among ABC1s

6%

L % increase in ABC1s since 2015

12%

L % lead amongst C2DEs

4%

C % increase amongst C2DEs

12%

% people are more likely to vote C with every 10 years they age

9%

Turning point age for C voting

47

Importance of ethncity

• High

L lead amongst BME %

54% (+6%)

Turnout amonbst BME increase since 2015

6%

Importance of age

• High — biggest age gap since 1970s

Swing to L by age

• Highest for under-44s but very high for 25-34s

  • Especially 18-24y/o women

Swing to C by age

• Highest for over-55s

Importance of education

• Very high

C pt lead amongst those with no qualis

17 pts

C pt lead amongst those educated to below degree level

7 pts

L pt lead amongst graduates

15 pts

Image of May

• Safe pair of hands

• Wooden

• Unnatural

2 things May was attacked for

1. Cuts to police budget as Home Sec that then could have led to 2 terrorist attacks (Manchester, Borough Market)

2. Dementia tax

Image of Corbyn

• Unsuitable

• BUT appeared at Glastonbury and did excellent campaigning (crowd chanting oh JC)

Role of media

• “Social media election”

  • L: #forthemany; used memes

Key issue

• Brexit

L % of Remain voters

54%

C % of Remain voters

26%

L % of Leave voters

24%

C % of Leave voters

65%

2 L focuses during campaign

1. Public services

2. Ending austerity

6 C policies

1. Protect NHS

2. Cut spending in public services

3. Make major reforms to education

4. Dementia tax (U-Turned on w/in 24h)

5. Removal of triple lock

6. Committments to grammar schools

4 L policies

1. Improve welfare

2. Increase investment

3. Abolish tuition fees

4. Introduce 4 new bank holidays

Impact of TV debates

• May stated she wouldn’t participate in any 121 debates

• Corbyn did the 2nd and Rudd stood in for May

  • Other leaders just attacked May for not going

  • Corbyn presented himself as a contrast to her

Role of media

• Corbyn repeatedly addressed large, enthusiastic crowds

  • Abbot forgot key pieces of info

• May spoke to small groups in closed locations