What explains the fall of the USSR 1985-91?

how many USSR republics in 1985

15

what report made it clear to Gorbachev reform was needed

• Novosibirsk Report 1983- Tatyana Zaslavskaya (sociologist)

• attention to growing crisis in agriculture caused by state inefficiency and inflexibility- ignored by ageing politburo members

Key reformers bought into politburo

• Ligachev

• Ryzhkov

• Yeltsin & Yakovlev promoted to central committee 1986

alcohol and household spending

• 15% by mid 1980s

• april 1985- Gorbachev- ‘we can’t build communism on vodka’

Gorbachev’s alcohol campaign

• legal age raised to 21

• retail outlets with alcohol licences reduced- price of vodka tripled

• vineyards/ distilleries closed

• BUT- illegal moonshine liquor produced (samogon)- campaign abandoned as clear workforce discipline would not solve underlying probs

12th 5YP

1986-90- focus on science and research

context- failures of 12 5YP

• govt in deficit- 1985-6, economic deficit from 2.4% to 6.2% GDP

• Expenses of war in Afghanistan (dec 1979 invasion)

• Increased defence spending due to US Strategic Defence Initiative (Star Wars)

• Context- revenues from oil exports declined due to global fall in price of oil - $37 a barrel 1980 to $14 1986

weaknesses in 12 5YP

• overspending in investment in construction projects

• Old equipment & factories- increasingly unproductive

• Imports on foreign tech- drain on foreign exchange

• investment in agriculture did not lead to increased productivity

• focus remained on quantity over quality

• ‘superministries’- unable to bring about changes

opposition to economic reform in the state

Gorbachev, June 1986 ‘Take Gosplan… what they want, they do’

perestroika

‘restructuring’- introduction of market mechanisms and elements of private enterprise

uskorenie

acceleration, intended to overcome the 'era of stagnation’

largely abandoned by 1987 in favour of more systematic reforms e.g perestroika

alcohol reform, modernization in heavy industry (12th5YP) and worker discipline

key perestroika reforms

• 1987 Jan- Encouragement of joint ventures

• June 1987- Law on state enterprises

• 1988- Cooperatives legalised

Jan 1987 the encouragement of joint ventures

allowed foreign firms to est business in state partnership- 1990 mcdonalds

hoped foreign businesses would open USSR to modern tech

June 1987- Law on state enterprises

loosening on state control on prices and wages- weakened Gosplan’s authority

election in choice of managers

factories could produce what they like after meeting state targets

Cooperatives 1988

allowed small-scale private enterprise- could set own prices

cafes, restaurants, small shops developed

name of ‘cooperatives’ encouraged conservatives

impact of perestroika on food prod

• 1-2% growth rate increase 1986-7 but inadequate to feed growing population

• 1/5 of foodstuffs imported

impact of cooperatives- inflation

• products diverted from state shops to coops (higher price)= inflation and stripped state shops

• bad impact on pensioners who lived on fixed income

• coops could look for rich buyer- deals for richer city authorities, leaving poorer cities devoid of basic products

• resulted in hoarding

impact of cooperatives- corruption

• more productive profits attracted attention of corrupt govt officials who demanded bribes for operation permission

• criminal gangs- extortion racket (powerful after producing illegal alcohol)

food rationing

• 1988- meat rationed 26/55 Russian regions

other impacts of perestroika

• wage rises due to electing managers - 13% rise 1989

• 3,000 joint foreign ventures in USSR- but faced w/ bureaucracy

• reforms undermined by officials- Leningrad withdrew all sausages from shops and buried them

soviet economy in 1989

• Oil price fall- USSR reliant - 1984 54% of soviet exports

• massive debt

• strikes- miners in Don Basin over unpaid wages and food shortages- led to short term wage increase

• BUT little point in having more money if shops empty

July 1989, state commission on economic reform called for…

move to market led economy

500 days programme- Shatalin (economic advisor)

October 1989- advised rapid move to market economy

Rejected by Soviet govt but accepted by Russian parliament- division between central party leadership and republics= chaos and economic collapse

‘Catastroika’

evidence of economic failure by 1991

soviet output had declined by 1/5 1990-91

S. Philips on Gorbachev’s economic reform

‘In 1985 Gorbachev had asked the Soviet people for new ideas on how to improve the communist system. By 1989 the answer was that a large section of the population wanted the whole system dismantled’

Factors explaining fall of USSR 1985-1991

• Gorbachev’s economic reforms

• Gorbachev’s political reforms

• Resurgence of nationalism

• Gorbachev

• Yeltsin

• longer term discontent?

Glasnost

openness- encouraging population to put forward new ideas and show initiative

key criticisms of party during glasnost period

• complaints about poor housing

• investigations into history revealed Stalin’s terror, famine of 1930s and Katyn massacre (documents revealed Stalin’s orders for massacre)

• myth of Great Patriotic war- revelation of waste of human lives

• Environmental issues- Aral sea (govt irrigation)

justification for Glasnost

lack of response to Chernobyl

organisation of Glasnost

60,000 informal groups and clubs holding meetings, demonstrations and adding voices to call for political reform

Gorbachev becomes president of Soviet Union

oct 1988- mirrored situation in republics- first secretaries in each repub became chairman of local soviet

Gorbachev’s attempted reforms of party

• Defining functions of party and state

• Shifting power from party to soviets

• Streamlining the party

• clampdown on corruption

• democratisation

streamlining the party

• central committee departments reduced 20-9

• Nov 1985- ‘superministries’

clampdown on corruption

• Yuri Churbanov sentenced to 12 years imprisonment (Brezhnev son in law)

• Dec 1986- Kazakh secretary removed for corruption & replaced by Kolbin, ethnic russian= rioting- 100s killed

• Gorbachev seen to blame

June 1987- small move towards democratisation

limited experiment with multiple candidates in local soviet elections

19th party conference

june 1988

G announced multi-candidate elections extended to national level- Congress of peoples deputies

Congress would supervise govt- candidates from the Party, TUs and Union of writers

impact of failure to reform party

reformers convinced multi-party pluralism was solution

Yeltsin attacks Gorbachev’s reforms at Plenum of CC

October 1987

Removal of Yeltsin

1987 nov- sacked as first sec in Moscow

Feb 1988- Yeltsin removed from politburo

alienation of conservatives- Andreeva’s letter

• 1988- Nina Andreeva’s letter attacked Glasnosts demoralising impact and praised Stalinism

• Ligachev used letter as opportunity to attack pace of reform

• sentiments supported by die hard Stalinist e.g Gromyko and Gorbachev’s appointees- Chebrikov

development of factions in Party (still prohibited- informal groupings)

• Yeltsin and reformers- Inter-Regional group

• Conservatives, worried about territorial integrity of USSR= Soyuz

• unofficial opposition to govt

Article 6 of Soviet Constitution

enshrined one party state, symbolic target for critics e.g Sakharov- non negotiable for conservatives

Article 6 repealed

March 1990- other parties could now be established to contest elections

powerlessness of Communist party by late 1990

• Leningrad - opposition secured 60% of seats

• support for national groups grew especially in Baltic states

• Yeltsin’s platform- Democratic platform- victory in elections for congress of peoples deputies

• June 1990- Yeltsin resigns from Communist party

• political power shifted from centre to regions

Figes on political reform

‘It was Gorbachev’s reforms that bought about the real crisis: the disintegration of the Party’s power and authority’

Volkogonov on reform

‘The communist system was not reformable. Either it exists, or it does not’

what was the Brezhnev doctrine

Soviet control over Eastern Europe enforced by military action e.g Czechslovakia 1968

Gorbachev decided he would not uphold right of USSR to intervene in affairs of socialist countries

Gorbachev’s rejection of Brezhnev doctrine

Govt spent $40billion annually on propping up communist govts

Gorbachev hoped govts would follow lead in economic reforms, leading to rejuvenation of socialism

1989 Hungarian multi-party system and Polish election of a non-communist govt- Gorbachev offered encouragement

Poland- communist collapse

• Solidarity- workers organisation & other allowed to stand in election 1989

• Solidarity won landslide election- party collapsed as organisation

Hungary- communist collapse

Janos Kadar sacked 1988- govt dominated by reformers and allowed multi-party elections

East Germany- collapse

• Oct 1989- Gorbachev’s visit encouraged reformers

• mass demos - Egon Krenz refused to sanction repression

• 9 nov- Berlin wall dismantled by people power

Czechslovakia- collapse

• Nov 1989- Civic forum campaign to get rid of comm govt

• reforms introduced

• Dec 1989, Vaclav Havel, opponent of communism elected

Romania- communist collapse

• 1989- demonstrations

• Ceausescu used open fire- increased unpopularity

• Dec- forced to flee as army refused to support

• arrest and execution xmas day- end of communism

Pope in poland

1979, Pope John Paul II visited- addressed ‘Do not be afraid’- encouraged change

By end of 1989- every pro-communist govt in Eastern Europe disintegrated

Growth of nationalism USSR- environmental concerns

• Damage greatest in outlying regions

• soil erosion due to river diversion ravaged Central Asia

• Industrial pollution in Baltic republics

Growth of nationalism USSR- insecurity of local party leaders

Most threatened by Gorbachev’s reforms- ‘trust in cadres’ had allowed widespread corruption

Lent support to local concerns to try to maintain support, lackeys of Moscow unpopular

Growth in nationalism USSR- language and culture

• equal division- 145m Russians and 141m non-Russians

• Strong sense of cultural identity- Lithuanians, Estonians, Latvians, Ukrainians and non-slavic peoples like Muslim groups in central Asia

Nagorno-Karabakh- ethnic tensions between Armenians and Azerbaijan

• 1988- tensions erupted into violence

• unofficial referendum- November: Armenia announced area under its control

• direct control imposed over region by Moscow- inflamed situation

Significance of Nagorno-Karabakh

• Declining power of central govt in outlying republics

• other ethnic clashes- Kirgizstan 1990, Moldovian nationalism vs Turkish descent= fear

Why did nationalism grow in Baltic states?

• Estonia,Latvia,Lithuania- had been independent until 1939- viewed USSR as occupying force

• higher levels of education than soviet average- promoted understanding of culture

• more economically developed than other regions

Popular fronts established in Baltic states

April-October 1988- ‘Sajudis’ (movements by intelligensia calling for independence)

‘Holding hands for peace’ chain

• August 1989

• anniversary of 1939 Nazi-Soviet pact

• spanned republics

when did Lithuania declare independence

March 1990- Landsbergis- speaker of Lithuanian supreme soviet (Popular fronts had won supreme soviet elections 1990)

2 republics followed

January 1991- Lithuania

• pro-Soviet communists and Red army troops- attempted to take over Vilnius TV station- 13 killed

• Gorbachev denied involvement- issued statement independence requests through legal channels would be tolerated

Limits of nationalism as a factor

• Limited experience of independence- Belarusia and Central Asia had less experience in history

• USSR allowed for degree of autonomous control- supported national languages in schools

• Republics had been net gainers of economic investment- Central Asia

• Loyalty to tribal groupings stronger than nationalist sentiment- e.g violence between Muslim groups e.g Uzbeks and Turkmens

• 60 million ethnic russians lived in outlying republics

1991 new union treaty

referendum indicated popular support for maintaining union outside of Georgia and Baltics

Concessions for preserving language and customs to keep support alive

Rejected by yeltsin November 1991

Role of Russian nationalism

• Yeltsin happy to encourage Russian nationalism- president of Russia June 1991

• Yeltsin encouraged national groups to ‘take as much sovereignty as you can stomach’

Historians and role of nationalism

• Western historians tend to focus on anti-communist movements in Eastern Europe, seeing collapse of Soviet union as part of end of C-W

• Recent research- highlights unique experiences in individual republics

Marples on Gorbachev’s abandonment of Brezhnev doctrine

‘sounded the death knell for decrepit governments’

Gorbachevs failings (summarised)

• lack of vision- acceleration to perestroika- uncoordinated economic policy

• Naivety- e.g unintended effects of glasnost

• reduced own powerbase (in the party)

• raised expectations w/out satisfying them

• foreign policy- Sinatra doctrine- collapse of e-europe

Gorbachev- insensitive handling of national minorities

• decision to replace Kunayev w/ ethnic Russian Kolbin in 1986

• increased tensions w/ direct control from Moscow in Nagorno-Karabakh Nov 1988

• Vilnius Jan 1991

Gorbachev- inconsistency

• Nov 1987 speech- praise Stalin but condemned ‘real crimes’- in attempt to appeal to Stalinists, alienated lib reformers

• Dec 1990- removed reformer Bakatin as Minister of interior and replaced w/ hardliner Boris Pugo

• ‘move to conservatives’ - resignation of Shevardnadze

Examples of Gorbachev’s indecision

• Chernobyl- waited several days before press release

• May 1990- Yeltsin stood for Chairman of congress of deputies for Russia, Gorbachev supported dull candidate Alexander Vlasov

Historiographical approaches

• Intentionalist- focus on roles of individuals and their actions

• Structuralist- focus on political/economic/social structures that restrict ability of individual leader

• Social- draw attention to experiences of population e.g emphasise experience of Soviet elites who were desperate to retain power and rise of nationalism

Ronald Suny’s analysis of Gorbachev

his error was attempting economic reform, democratisation and decolonising the republics all at the same time

Defences of Gorby

• divisions between reformers and conservatives presented severe challenge

• Gorbachev’s decision not to use violence= to his credit, as there was serious chance of civil war

• Success of reforms undermined by chance combination of intl affairs- War in Afghanistan started by Brezhnev 1979, fall of world oil prices and US star wars. 1988- Armenian earthquake killed 25,000= pressure on G’s govt

when did Yeltsin attack Gorbachev’s policies

Central committee Plenum of 1987- conducted in arena w/ tv coverage

Yeltsin popularity

• Met w/ leaders of Russian Orthodox church, visited striking miners

• March 1991, 200,000 people gathered in Moscow to show support for Yeltsin

• 1989- 89% of Moscow vote to Congress of Peoples deputies

• elected chairman of congress May 1990- Democratic Russia movement secured support in the cities

when did Yeltsin and Gorbachev join forces

spring 1991 to form Novo-Ogarevo agreement to form New Union treaty- a cynical manoeuvre to keep a weak G in power before August Coup?

18th August Coup 1991

• State Emergency Committee of conservatives took over while G on holiday in Crimea

• Yanaev announced G was ill and state of emergency would rule in his absence

• Repressive measures- ban on strikes and demos

• Tanks ordered into Moscow

• Lasted 4 days- poorly planned w/out whole hearted backing of armed forces

How was Yeltsin emboldened by August coup?

stand against plotters enhanced his rep as defender of freedom and liberty

demand to release G from house arrest= less like self-seeking publicity

Yeltsin’s actions after coup

• programme of market reform

• 1991 summer- monopoly of communist party legally ended

• Nov 1991- Yeltsin banned communist party in Russia

• Undermined new union treaty- Leonid Kravchuk refused to sign

what formally ended the USSR

the implementation of Yeltsin’s Commonwealth of independent States in Dec 1991

when was Gorbachev appointed President of the USSR

March 1990

What was formed at the 19th party congress in summer 1988

Congress of Peoples deputies

what did Shatalin plan do 1990

significantly cut state subsidises

when did Yeltsin announce complete marketisation of Russian economy

Oct 1991

how many voted in favour of ref on a new Union treaty march 1991

76% in 9 participating republics

Gorbachev personality

• said to wife when became gensec ‘we cannot carry on living this way’

• Thatcher- ‘we can do business together’

Alexander Dallin on Gorbachev’s actions

led to a string of weaknesses consisting of ‘destabilization, delegitimization and disintegration’