Population and migration A level geography 2027 spec

Current pattern of global population distribution

Temperate regions are more highly populated than the poles

Canada has a population density of 2, UK has 300. Tropical areas are also highly populated, India has population density of 500 per square kilometer. Bangladesh has 1600/sqkm.

Asia has is home to 60% of the worlds population

Coastal regions and rivers have higher popdens. 40% of population lives within 100km of a coastline

Places with low density tend to be such as deserts mountains high latitudes. Canada has 2 popdens because cold and Sahara, Himalayas have low popdens.

Population density: average number of people per square kilometer.

Factors influencing population density

Population density is historically affected by “carrying capacity”. The number of people which can be fed from a region. Matters less now due to imports.

   Categorise factors into physical and human factors

Climate - pleasant climates attract people, such as UK with 300 popdens

Extreme climates repel people - Greenland popdens 0.1. Sahara and Siberia.

Topography - flatlands are easier to farm, mountains not. Ganges valley has high density whereas Himalayas are sparse.

Resources/ farmland - more fertile lands are more densely populated. Nile river valley has very high population density due to Nile river soil. Resources can lead to high populations - Bahrain has popdens 2000, due to oil wealth. 

Economic - people move towards cities for jobs. Lagos has high population growth despite environmental challenges, estimated 15 million population with 3% annual growth rate due to better economic opportunities. Existence of tax havens - Bahrain Monaco etc. 

Social - people move to places to be with others and because of prior importance. Such as retirement areas in Florida

Political - people are driven away by conflict and drawn towards more stable governments. Such as Syria conflict caused emigration

Historical - places which already have had high densities keep high densities onward to the future

Factors affecting global population growth

Rate of global population growth has decreased, but population is still growing. Peaked at 2.1% in 1960. Projected peak of 10 bn in 2080. Some countries continue to face growing populations but others declining. 

As food supply improves and hygiene improves this leads to lower infant mortality and higher populations. Birth rate remains high until it declines.

Every extra year of female education decreases fertility rate by 10%.#

In LIDCs children used as pensions.

Current trends in population growth

As women become more educated, TFR decreases.

Some countries continue to grow from effects of improved sanitation, and lasting cultural impacts. Average women has 4.5 children in Nigeria.

In Niger average women has 6.7 children, adherence to cultural norms, prioritising early marriage and large families, 75% of girls marry before 18. Niger median age is 14. 15% of women use contraception. 44/1000 - high infant mortality rate.

In HICs children are an economic liability, it costs £200k to raise a child in UK.

In Europe, there is an ageing population - TFR is below 1.5. By contrast in LIDC, children can contribute economically. In Germany natural increase is below replacement but population grows due to high immigration. 

Countries like Japan are in stage 5 of the DTM, birth rates are low and natural increase is negative, at -7/1000. Workforce estimated to shrink by 20% by 2040. TFR is 1.1. Median age is 50. Low immigration levels and cultural norms. Govt programs paid families to keep daughters in schools

Factors influencing regional variations in population growth

Internal migration can drive natural increase in the long run as immigrants will often have higher fertility rates.

Cultural elements - such as North Nigeria with TFR 6 and South urbanised Nigeria with a TFR 4. Urban areas can often have higher birth rates due to youthful populations.

Government programs can have an effect. 1972 - Bangladesh TFR was 7 and life expectancy was 50. In 2023 it was 2 and life expectancy of 75.

Localised effects of wealth - in Addis TFR is below 2 compared to 4 nationally. Urbanised educated have less children due to higher opportunity costs of children.

Natural increase and net migration - definition

The number of live births - number of live deaths in a population over a given time period

Net migration - the differences between the number of immigrants - the number of emigrants.

Immigration is now the main driver of population growth in UK.

Birth rate/ death rate definition

The number of live births per thousand per year

The number of deaths per thousand per year

HICs often have a much higher death rate than LIDCs because they have a higher proportion of old people.

TFR definition

The average number of children a woman has over her life time

UK 1.4 - Niger 6.7

Falling in Subsaharan africa aswell.

Low in UK due to high job insecurity

Infant mortality rate definition

Deaths of infants less than a year old in a given year/ 1000 births

It is a good proxy for development and government priorities, as there is better data on this.

Life expectancy - defnition

This is affected by wealth and health. In UK lowest life expectancy in Blackpool has 73 years compared to 90 in Knightsbridge 

India has life expectancy 70.

DTM and eval

DTM

1. High stationary - There is a high birth rate and a high death rate to match. There are fluctuations due to famine but not much growth.

2. Early expanding - Main drives in decreasing death rates are sanitation and better nutrition

3. Late expanding - Population continues to grow despite decrease death rate, as people still have memories of the past and cultural norms

4. Stationary - Death rates plateau as health improvements slow, birth rates also decrease due to changing cultural norms, marginal returns on life expectancy

5. Low fluctuating - access to contraception and high cost of raising children leads to decline. Potential increases in longevity.

The DTM is based on Sweden, Britain and it is Eurocentric. It is useful for classification but not government policy. It is mostly a descriptive model not predictive.

It doesn’t account for the impact of migration or aid.

There is no time period - some countries go through much faster than others.

External events such as the great leap forwards, and Chinese policy compressed 400m births, Chinese Hukuo system

Japan went through the DTM at a much faster pace, leapfrogging certain sections. Assumes slow linear industrialization and discounts the impact of aid

In the modern era cheap labour no longer necessarily causes industrialization, due to the impacts of automation.

Impacts of youthful population

In Nigeria 41% of population is under 15, leading to a high dependency ration and a diversion of resources away from productive sectors. Many people entering the workforce can lead to youth unemployment and civil unrest. Arab spring driven by younger populations, coups in Tunisia. Primary pressure is on job creation. 

Impacts of elderly population

Aging population causes a shrinking economy, due to decreased labour. Increased demand for care homes nurses etc, strain on the medical system. Decline in tax base. Leads to political blocks forming and non-beneficial policies for the young.

In Japan, old age dependency ratio is 50%, meaning there are two workers for every retired person. 30% of population is over 65. TFR 1.2. Social security is 33% of govt spending

Older workers can bring more experience and have more savings, 25% of Japanese workers over 65 continue to work.

Reduced pressure on infrastructure and services

French attempt to manage natural increase

-French attempt to manage natural increase

Monthly cash grants are given to those with two or more children

75% discount on rail travel for families with 3 or more children. 

French government increased pension age from 62 to 64

20% less births in 2023 than 2010

1.8 TFR. highest in the G7

TFR fell from 2.7 in 1960 to a low of 1.6 in 1990s due to the results of changing social norms and increasing female education.

France had negative natural increase for the first time in 2025 of -5000

3-4% of GDP on pro-natalist policies, costs billions to maintain policies. Spends the most money of any OECD country on pro-natal policies

Investment into childcare facilities allows women to have many children whilst also maintaining high female employment rates.

France TFR is much higher still than the rest of EU and developed nations

Chinese attempt to manage natural increase

If the fertility rate did not decrease then it was estimated that China would reach a population of 4.3 billion by 2080. Target population of 600-800 million by 2080, exceeded. Set the minimum marriage age to 22 for men and 20 for women. 

Prevented 400 million births. 800 million people lifted out of poverty. 

Female secondary school employment increased to 80% by 2002, due to impact of more parental attention.

Skewed seg ratio - 120 boys to 100 girls - 30 million more men than women.

TFR dropped from 5.8 in 1970 to 1.5 in 2010, birth rates have not recovered, even after the policy was fazed out in 2017.

It compressed stage 2 and 3 of the DTM, leading to China still being poor but old. Lack of wealth to deal with the impacts of aging population. 

1/4 of Chinese will be over 65 by 2050

Drivers of migration

Push and pull factors

-Environmental

Natural disasters, droughts, crop failures.

Pleasant environments, reliable weather as pull factors

eg. Bangladesh floods displace 200,000 per year, many move to Dhaka for flood defences.

-Economic

High unemployment, low wages

Job opportunities, higher wages, better working conditions

eg. India to UAE in construction, with billions in remittances

-Cultural

Persecution

Cultural freedom, existing diaspora communities

Chain migration from South Asia to London, because of preexisting communities

-Political

Civil war, political instability, political regimes

Political stability, asylum policies

12 million displaced from Syrian war and 5.6 million registered as refugees.

Germany open door policy led to 1 million migrants arriving in 1 year.

-Demographic

Overpopulation, high youth populations with lack of jobs to match

Underpopulation, aging workforce

Impacts of migration

Remittance inflows can provide major income sources, has an outsized effect due to the multiplier effect. 

Social economic improvements from return migration - many people return with higher skills than they left with and improve the economy. 

Reduced pressure on resources

Negatives:

Brain drain - the most skilled citizens tend to leave

Depopulation and aging. Young adults are most likely to leave causing older populations with less people to do work

Overreliance on remittances leads to a lack of domestic industries.

Pakistan migration stats

9% of GDP is from remittances, for 30 billion dollars

88% of those leaving Pakistan are skilled labourers, such as construction workers.

90,000 university graduates left Pakistan in 2022.

Women accounted for 0.4% of emigrants.

2000 doctors leave a year, due to push factors of low pay.

Only 15% of Pakistani doctors ever return

USA case study

Tech boom in Texas, Arizona, Phoenix is growing fast. Boeing moved out of Seattle to Virginia. California sees emigration but also international immigration. California was founded it was in an unusual period of higher precipitation. Phoenix grew 10% in last 10 years.

International immigration offsets lower TFR of 1.6, allows dependency ratio to continue growing.

Immigrants pay more in taxes than consume in government expenditure

Low skilled labourers can decrease wages, leads to higher house prices

Hispanic workers consist of 70% of agricultural workforce, 5 million undocumented migrants