polarity

US military power

• highest military spender - 2024 more than next 9 countries combined at $997 billion

• around 800 military bases in 70 countries

• US navy greater in size of next 13 navies combined

• involved in various conflicts since cw- gulf war, interventions in Balkans, war on terror & Iran 2026

US economic power

• largest economy by nominal GDP- 5% of population but 25% of worlds wealth

• growing faster than eurozone- 3.3% gain 2023

• ‘dollar hegemony’- international currency- global reserve currency- allows US to impose effective financial sanctions

• 2025- nominal GDP of $30.62 trillion

• China’s growth rates slowed below 5% 2025, aging population

US soft/structual power

• Veto power in IMF- 16.5% of vote shares - unilateral veto over major policy decisions

• every WB president american citizen e.g Ajay Banga 2023

• GAFAM - (Google, Apple, facebook, amazon, microsoft)- US centered global digital order

• Cultural dominance- americanization, 1st on global soft power index - US cultural exports

• China lacks these deep alliances such as NATO

• China’s aggression in south china sea and its treatment of Xinjiang uyghurs have alienated western partners- India grown wary of intentions after border clashes between Chinese/Indian troops in himalayas

• American music- american cultural dominance- Taylor Swift Eras Tour worth around £1 billion to UK economy

Multipolar military

• Russia and China beginning to challenge US might

• China- monopoly on rare earth minerals for military tech

• Jin/ shang nuclear powered submarines make China a significant military force in the South China sea (carries one third of global shipping) & PLA

• 2016- Russia RS-28 Sarmot can strike from 10,000km- lethal weapon

• war in ukraine show of Russian hard power

• China ‘victory day’ parade- hosts Kim Jong un, Putin for display of hard, military power

Multipolar economic

• Growth rates of developing countries

  • India- 6.2%, China 4.4% vs US 2.1% (projected 2026)

• China largest economy in purchasing power parity (PPP)- manufacturing output 32% vs 16% US in 2024

• China expected to overtake US in terms of GDP and FDI (largest investor in Africa)

Multipolar structural/soft power

• BRICS expansion to Iran, ethiopia, egypt

• P5- equal veto weight

• Trump’s ‘America First’ rhetoric alienating?- US dropped global policeman role, $5bn cuts in foreign aid

• Chinese FDI (East Africa) and soft power- Belt and Road initiative 150 countries- power grids, railways

• Influence of other cultures- bollywood, Chinese confucian institutes, Saudi Arabia vision 2030 tourism, Qatar world cup 2022, South Korea k-pop, ‘Cool Japan Fund’

Great powers

nations with ability to exert significant influence in intl politics- either or all: economically, militarily, diplomatically

• economic strength- e.g Japan (2024- 4th largest in world)- Sony, Panasonic, Toshiba, EU single market

• military capacity- UK- trident nuclear program, 225 nuclear warheads, Russia

• diplomatic influence- Germany P5

• global reach- UK soft power, Russian energy sector - 12% of worlds oil

Emerging powers definition

nations experiencing significant economic growth, expanding political influence and increasing participation in regional/global affairs

Globalisation has driven this emergence due to utilisation of sizeable populations

Examples of emerging powers

India, Brazil, Indonesia, Nigeria, Turkey, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Iran

BRICS- less useful due to China’s great/superpower status, Russia’s historical power, South Africa taken over by many other powers

BRICS

• 2009- First summit in Yekaterinburg, Russia

• New Development Bank- aim to fund infrastructure and development projects in emerging countries

India

• 5th largest economy by nominal GDP- $4.13 trillion

• most populous country- 1.41 billion

• 6-7% annual GDP growth

• IT services- Infosys and Tata consultancy services

• key role in SAARC- South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation

• 4th largest military

Saudi Arabia

• worlds largest oil exporter

• holds approx 17% of worlds proven petroleum reserves

• nominal GDP of $1.27 trillion

• attempts to diversify economy through sport and tourism

Superpower definition

possess ability to project major power across the globe in multiple dimensions- military, economic, political and cultural

Reasons for questions over US decline as superpower

• increasing internal political divisions, economic inequality, rise of China as superpower

pre-2008 low-profile economic policy

deng xiaoping- ‘hide your strength, bide your time’ - focus on economic development

China relatively unscathed from 2008 financial crisis

BRI

• launched 2013, aiming to develop trade routes (like silk road) across world

• China-Pakistan economic corridor (CPEC)- highways and energy projects

• loans and investments to developing countries- Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port- critics call ‘debt-trap diplomacy’

• Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria- significant investment

• aiming to build economic dependencies

Made in China 2025

• plan focuses on developing Chinese capabilities in AI, biotechnology and aerospace

• diminishing reliance on west and becoming self-sufficient

• Huawei and Tencent

• US criticises unfair state subsidies/intellectual property theft - partly played role in blocking of WTO appellate body

Is the US a declining superpower?

• rising income inequality, stagnating wages for middle class & offshoring of manufacturing jobs e.g rust belt

• US withdrawal from Afghanistan 2021- lost credibilitu

• US relations with traditional allies have been strained- America first

• internal political polarisation- Jan 6th capitol riot 2021, ICE killings in Minnesota etc

Iran and US as a superpower

• realist- US reinforces military power, sending message to ‘rogue states’ that US remains global policeman

  • Maintains military primacy- hard power is what matters

  • By removing a nuclear threat, US is acting in self interest and maintaining world order that favours US national security and economic stability (Similar to Venezuela)

• Liberal- erosion of soft power?

Joseph Nye coined

• Hard power- coercive measures, to compel others to act in a way they otherwise would not

• Soft power- shaping preferences and opinion (ability to influence)- reliant on cultural influence, diplomacy and moral authority

smart power

combination of soft/hard power

coercion and attraction

realism and hard power

• Nye (neoliberal with realist insights) emphasised hard power is a zero-sum game- gain of one actor is at the expense of another

• US invasion of Iraq to achieve regime change, US/Israel war- airstrikes on Iran 2026, Russian Invasion of Ukraine 2022

economic hard power- sanctions

• US sanctions on Iran pre-war- US withdrew from Iran nuclear deal JCPOA in 2018 and reimposed severe economic sanctions on Iran e.g oil and shipping- goal to pressure Iran into renegotiating nuclear program

• EU sanctions on Russia from 2022- froze assets of Russian banks- huge drop in GDP, inflation

• BUT Russia energy leverage over Europe-cut off natural gas supplies to Germany, Poland etc- cost of living crisis- economic leverage to pressure Europe

Liberalism and soft power

Nye- described soft power as ability to achieve goals through attraction rather than coercion

soft power= positive sum game- multiple actors benefit from cooperation

China- 2008 Beijing olympics- showcased cultural heritage, modern infrastructure and rising global status

Diplomatic soft power- EU- strong intl reputation for multilateralism, human rights and environmental sustainability

Norway- rep as neutral intl. mediator- mediation of conflicts in Sri Lanka, Colombia, South Sudan

China, Russia, India- vaccine diplomacy e.g ‘Sinovac’ to more than 100 countries

Realist perspective on power

• Intl. system is anarchic- driven by states as primary actors

• Power (Hard power) crucial for ensuring security in uncertain environment

• Power = zero sum game

Liberals and power

• Optimistic view of intl relations

• recognise importance of soft power due to cooperative nature

• power= positive sum

Hard power is more effective

• if a state desires immediate results, where the intl. community frowns upon, hard power is most effective e.g US unilateral invasion of Iraq 2003, abduction of Maduro in Venezuela

• Deterrence and security- zero sum game, creates security buffer, Waltz’s defensive realism (states are security maximisers)

• Only option to prevent aggression and uphold international norms?- Russia/Ukraine

Soft power is more effective

• Long term influence and stability- diplomacy, cultural influence and economic aid. Hard power can lead to resentment

  • US intervention in Afghanistan during cold war- supported Mujahideen which had strong connections to Al-Qaeda and attacked US on 9/11- bite in bum

• Less costly and controversial domestically- Blair after 2003 Iraq intervention

• Enhances global reputation and legitimacy- reduced legitimacy of Israeli state after killing more than 67,000 in 2 years- Israeli tourism industry on brink of collapse

Polarity impacts- war in Iran

• major PR setback for gulf states (2020-25 UAE’s GDP jumped 25%), but migrants comprise 85-90% of the workforce in Qatar, the UAE and Kuwait

• Chinese/Pakistani diplomats working behind scenes to ease tensions

• US image of benevolent foreign policy no longer