Rise of China (1 & 2)

how was China changed in the past four decades

China transformed from a largely agrarian society into the world's largest exporter and manufacturer. and the second largest economy and world's most dyadic. its a central player in international supply chain and has a massive consumer market with its humongous population

China's economic transformation

China started reforms to upgrade and modernize its economy and to open up to the world. China applied to join GATT in 1986 but wont be formally integrated into global trade till 2000 ish - also creation of the World Trade Organization (WTO) coincides with the emergence of global value chains (GVCs)

Global value chains (GVCs)

he international fragmentation of production, where various stages of a product's lifecycle --conception, design, production, marketing, and distribution -- are performed across different countries

internal impact of china's economic transformation

Over 800 million people have been lifted out of extreme poverty in the last 40 years. also huge demographic shifts heavily urban now + increased defense capacity

What has been the trend in China's military spending in recent years?

China's defense budget has steadily increased, reaching nearly $247 billion in 2025. scale and growth of defense budget has enable broad investments in equipment, maintenance, personnel and training - still spends les on defense than us but gap is shrinking

What notable achievement did the PLA Navy reach around 2014?

The PLA Navy surpassed the U.S. Navy in the number of battle force ships.

chinas nuclear defense

china has a goring stockpile of nuclear warheads

What historical period do Chinese leaders connect their current success to?

Chinese leaders connect their success to a culture and history of more than 5,000 years. they attribute it to the Xia or shang dynasty - zhou ir confirmed by records tho

What is the Mandate of Heaven?

The Mandate of Heaven is the belief that a ruler's legitimacy comes from their ability to govern well, not noble birth. gives rules legitimacy and removes it from rebels

What was a significant feature of the Zhou Dynasty?

The Zhou Dynasty emphasized a hierarchical society based on loyalty and filial piety.

Who presided over the height of the Qing Dynasty?

Emperor Qianlong presided over the height of the Qing Dynasty. a time when the government was quite fiscally wealthy. contact with england. lack of naval capacity plus other issues like rebels and poverty led to its fall. ended with taiping rebellion (1850-95) largest & deadliest civil war in history

century of humiliation

A period from 1839 to 1945 marked by foreign intervention and loss of sovereignty for China.

1st Opium War (1839-42) and Unequal Treaties (1842-61)

britich smuggle ipium which would take a significant social, political, economic toll, creating billions of addicts and calls for the abolition of the opium trade. unequal treaties with england, pay money to brits, lose sino-japanese war

What led to the fall of the Qing Dynasty in 1911?

A culmination of revolts and agitations, with the Nationalist Party successfully converting soldiers to their side.

What was the significance of the Cultural Revolution for China's economy?

The Cultural Revolution led to reforms aimed at saving the economy from near-collapse.

republican era

1912-49 - KMT rules unifying and fighting warlords, lingering issues of protecting china from foreigners + growing nationalism. from opium war to end of this China went from producing a quarter of the world's economic output, to less than 5 percent. nationalists also failed to quel imeprialism in form of japan & sino-japanese war.

What was the KMT's status in China from 1928 to 1949?

The KMT (Kuomintang rules by Chiang Kai-shek) was the sole ruling party in China until its defeat in the Chinese Civil War, after which it retreated to Taipei.

CCP origins

The May Fourth Movement, where students and intellectuals took on radical western ideologies like marxism, communists stood for class struggle, socialism, voluntarism so ahdhadsupport of workers and peasants while nationalist s took theirs from elites and urban towns

Who became the leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) after 1945?

Mao Zedong.

What was the significance of the Communist Long March?

It was a military retreat that became a foundational myth for the CCP, bringing Mao immense prestige.

CCP post insurgency

In 1949, communists emrge victorious claiming almsot all mainland china, Mao proclaimed the founding of the People's Republic of China.

What recurring themes influenced China's perception of itself post-1949?

Legacies of foreign imperialism, the Century of Humiliation, and failures of past governments to defend China's sovereignty.

Shirk

author discusses if china can rise peacefully and that to understand it we must understand the domestic political context in which chinese foreign policy is made. There are features that make it hard to sustain cautious, reassuring foreign policy: political insecure/communist party leadership, media myths, policy process with inadequate restraint over parochial bureaucratic interests

Fravel

China's territorial compromises, regime insecurity argument - china often compromises in territorial disputes not despite being authoritarian but because of internal security, when chinese leaders face domestic threats like rebellion or political crisis they are mroe likely to cooperate internationally and make territorial concession to strengthen their control at home.

China in 1949

When Mao and the CCP take control of China, he by default because the head of an organization in which there were in essence 5 armies (each loyal to their leader) and with koran war start he addressed this issue by essentially mixing up each army fr that war so they become one + removes generals from power

logic of authoritarian politics

authoritarian politics = risky business. 2 environemental constraints: Lack of independent authority capable of enforcing credible commitments amongst political actors and pervasiveness of gruesome violence. 2 big authoritarian elader dilemmas: Power-sharing and control

issue of authoritarian power sharing

Occurs chiefly between the dictator and his ruling coalition

Dictators often rely on a ruling coalition to guarantee a regime's survival.

A key obstacle to successful authoritarian power sharing is the dictator's desire and opportunity to acquire more power at the expense of the coalition. The only effective deterrent against such opportunism is the threat of an ally's attempt to remove an authoritarian leader. 2 forms of interaction (contested and established)

What does the term 'contested autocracy' refer to?

A situation where allies can threaten rebellion to check dictatorial opportunism.

What does 'established autocracy' imply?

Dictators have acquired so much power that they can no longer be credibly threatened.

problems of authoritarian control

Authoritarian regimes must minimize conflict between the ruling coalition in power and the masses that are excluded from power. An inherent feature of dictatorships is the lack of popular consent

2 instruments: repression and co-optation

powersharing under mao

he coup-proofs the military, doesnt opt for a politburo of close supporters but goes based on talent, has a flexible and consultative policy process that devolves responsibiltiy (party commands the gun, the gun must never command the party)

Golden years

twin imperatives of growth and consolidation, 1949056, economy was kinda restored to on schedule, national pride restored

twin imperatives of growth and consolidation

But 1956 sees a wave of industrial strikes over high production quotas, poor

compensation, and peasant withdrawals form poorly performing collectives. Pace of economic growth, particularly in agriculture, lagging behind expectations,

given Mao's desire to transform China from an agrarian economy into a

powerful industrializing state at the quickest possible pace - anticommunist explosion in china so launches hundred flowers campaign

What was the role of the PLA in the establishment of the PRC?

The People's Liberation Army was instrumental in securing control over mainland China.

What was the Hundred Flowers Campaign?

A campaign launched by Mao in 1956-57 encouraging citizens to express their opinions of the CCP. Idea is to have intellectuals discuss the problems facing the country, believing that after discussion, it would be apparent that the socialist ideology was dominant over capitalist ideology. 957 Mao abruptly halts the campaign in response to unexcepted demands for power-sharing (they need to be flowers not poisonous weeds)

What was the Great Leap Forward?

A campaign from 1958-1960 aimed at drastically increasing production targets, which led to economic disaster. created the Great Chinese famine, resulting in an estimated 36 million deaths. failure was evident by 60s and an adjustment scaled it back

Cultural Revolution

1966): Sociopolitical

movement launched by Mao in 1966 that lasts until his death. To preserve Chinese communism while purging society of capitalist remnants. he took a less active role governing the country. economic plicies mao didn't like cus they wernet pure communist were put in place to rescue the economy. start of personalistsic rule for mao. created red guard and persecuted many

What is a personalist regime?

A type of dictatorship where political power is concentrated in the hands of one individual.

How did the Korean War impact Mao's regime?

It helped restore national pride and consolidate the CCP's control.

What was the primary goal of Deng Xiaoping's leadership?

To restore order and rehabilitate those targeted during the Cultural Revolution

national security configuration

The rules that shape the flow of information between leaders and their diplomatic, defense and intelligence bureaucracies

What are the three types of national security configurations mentioned?

Integrated, Fragmented, and Siloed

Integrated decision-making

Configuration in which bureaucrats can easily relay information to the top, while also allowing for information sharing between bureaucracies. reduces risk of miscalculation

Fragmented decision-making

Restricted bureaucratic advisers' access to decision-making, much more miscalculation

What was the outcome of the Sino-Soviet clashes in 1969?

China's strategy backfired, leading to escalated conflict

Siloed decision-making

Restricted information sharing between bureaucracies. a little better than fragmented but not good

What were China's four objectives during the EP-3 incident?

Cease U.S. reconnaissance flights, seek admission of responsibility, extract an apology, and balance these with improving Sino-U.S. relations

What is the 'puzzle of territorial compromise' in China's foreign policy?

(Fravel) Internal conflict can create conditions for external cooperation. During periods of regime insecurity, especially in the event of ethnic unrest near its international boundaries, China's leaders have been much more willing to offer concessions in exchange for cooperation that strengthens their control of these areas, such as denying external support to separatists or affirming recognition of Chinese sovereignty over these regions

How did the end of the Cold War affect China's territorial security?

It increased security by removing potential encirclement and allowed for regaining disputed territories. decline and then disintegration of the Soviet Union greatly increased China's territorial security, removing any northern border and eliminating potential encirclement in Vietnam

weiss

a variety of choices matter in shaping china's strategy and prospects for peace so its bad to neglect these to say conflict is inevitable, past patterns between rising and declining powers are helpful but theres too many examples to say one is reliably predictive, the devil is int he details: small actions=big consequences, domestic developments fr US and china both affect prospects for peace

Mearsheimer

chinas challenge to US power, china can't rise peacefully, china wont alone drive the security competition the us will be aggressive too - BOP will change a lot

christensen

misperceptions of the BOP are more likely during radical shifts in distribution of power when traditionally powerful states are overtaken by formerly weaker ones. Given the major power shifts occurring in the region sensitivity to perceptions and misperceptions of basic security conditions may be especially important in analyzing the stability of a rapidly changing post cold war east Asia.