conflict and the balance of power

security dilemma

one state increases military strength to increase security other states view this a threat this creates fear and causes other states to increase their own military which decreases the security of the first state in the first place.

this can create a spiral of fear and tension causing smaller states with less power to create alliances with other smaller states to stand a chance against great powers this creates a balance of power which neo realists think is a good thing as the world cannot constantly be in conflict

balance of power

despite insecurity and tension realists believe that war can be avoided by a balance of power this comes in many different forms

• unipolarity global hegemon does not need more power as they are stable and secure this means it does not need to start wars for more power as it already has. and nations with less power can’t challenge it so they relax and accept the situation

• bipolar world this structure is likely to create a balance of power, where there is less chance of miscalculation and less opportunity and less opportunity for war than under a multipolar system

• multipolar system where there are three or more great powers and there is no potential global hegemon it is more stable than unbalanced multipolar system however is not as stable as a bipolar system

• unbalanced multipolar system there is a potential hegemon with slightly more power that will no be satisfied till they get more power so the initiate war and the other great powers will fear the potential hegemons rise so take greater risk to enhance their security system is unstable and prone to war

china

• it has fast growth and it is a potential hegemon it is a threat to its immediate neighbours such as japan Russia and India and potentially the USA in the long term

• offensive realists expect china to maximise its power gap between its neighbours and push the us out of the pacific region the USA will react to this and not want to lose power to china this will cause USA to create an alliance with japan Singapore and south Korea to keep the balance this could cause an intense security dilemma with real potential for conflict

• defensive realists would say the opposite and that china gaining power will make the world more stable as china will not pursue hegemon as it does not want to provoke the usa and its neighbours to balance them or even crush them china’s aims are likely to be more limited and based around security not power this is made more likely as the USA Russia and india have nuclear weapon

no

no